Is it actually safe to bet the over in an Iowa game? Will Tennessee continue toll when it takes on SEC foe Arkansas in Fayetteville? Will Kansas’ miserable season continue in Tempe? Check out our College Football Week 6 Best Bets.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Ohio State Buckeyes, 3:30 p.m. ET
According to ESPN FPI, the Buckeyes own an offensive efficiency rating of 93.2, which is tops in the nation. While they haven’t faced the stiffest competition, through four weeks the Buckeyes have thrived under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. They scored 52 points in their season-opener against Akron, 56 points versus Western Michigan in Week 2, 49 points against Marshall in Week 3 and 38 points in their first road game of the season last Saturday at Michigan State. Ohio State averages 535.5 yards per game and 8.0 yards per play, ranking seventh and fourth in the nation, respectively.
Meanwhile, Iowa is once again stout defensively but the Hawkeyes don’t have the athletes to hang with Ohio State. For our purposes today, the Hawkeyes have also been better offensively. You wouldn’t dare bet the over in an Iowa game in recent years, but this season has played out differently so far. They scored at least 30 points in three of their first four games, which includes a 31-point effort last Saturday at Minnesota. The only time they failed to score at least 30 points was a home game against Iowa State in which they scored 19.
If the Hawkeyes get into double-digits today, I like the over to cash easily.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Over 45
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks, 7:30 p.m. ET
I’m with my colleague Duke James on this one; Tennessee is a wagon and I expect the Vols to roll again tonight in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks have been competitive this season. They’re 4-1 against the spread, with their lone failed cover coming as a 22-point home favorite versus UAB in Week 3 (they won by 10). They took Oklahoma State to overtime as a 10-point dog and beat Auburn outright by 10 at Auburn. While they lost 21-17 to A&M last weekend, the Hogs covered as a 6.5-point dog.
That said, Tennessee is a different beast. They’re ESPN’s No. 1 ranked team in overall efficiency, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency and 15th in offensive efficiency. Redshirt frosh Nico Iamaleava has exceeded expectations so far in Knoxville. Arkansas doesn’t have a pass rush, so Iamaleava should put up huge numbers again tonight. On the other side of the ball, Bobby Petrino likes to run a relatively fast-paced, pass-heavy offense. That just means they’ll come off the field quickly and eventually hang their defense out to dry.
With Florida and Alabama on deck for Tennessee, could Arkansas catch the Vols looking ahead tonight? Possibly, but with the Vols having last week off, it’s not likely.
College Football Week 6 Best Bet: Tennessee Vols -13.5
Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils, 8:00 p.m. ET
Kansas stinks. Sorry to be so blunt but I’m shocked oddsmakers continue to give the Jayhawks this much respect. They beat Lindenwood 48-3 in their season opener, but it was Lindenwood’s first-ever FBS game and the Jayhawks didn’t even cover (-49.5). That was also the last time KU won.
The Jayhawks went on the road the following week and fell 23-17 to Illinois as a 5-point road favorite. The Fighting Illini have proven to be a better team this season than most expected, but that was still a rough look for Kansas. The Jayhawks then lost 23-20 to UNLV in Kansas City and couldn’t hold onto a fourth quarter lead in a 32-28 loss to West Virginia. Last week, they fell 38-27 to a TCU team that just lost to Houston, which had been shut out in its previous two games.
On the other side, the Sun Devils are coming off their first defeat of the season. They fell 30-22 to Texas Tech, but outgained the Red Raiders 376-334. Granted, ASU hasn’t had the most daunting schedule (Kansas’ has been more difficult), but the Sun Devils are also 3-1 against the spread. Again, this is more about KU than ASU, but the Sun Devils have proven to be a better team that most expected at the start of the year.