Unranked Duke heads to Chapel Hill to face #24 North Carolina at 8:00 PM ET on Saturday on the ACC Network. Can the Blue Devils cover the 13.5-point spread as road underdogs this weekend? Our Duke vs. North Carolina betting prediction will give you today’s winner.
Duke is 6-3 straight up this season and 4-5 against the spread. Their best win came against Clemson and their worst loss came against Louisville.
North Carolina is 7-2 straight up this season and 6-3 against the spread. Their best win came against Miami, and their worst loss came against Virginia.
Duke vs. North Carolina Matchup & Betting Odds
131 Duke Blue Devils (+13.5) at 132 North Carolina Tar Heels (-13.5); o/u 51.5
8:00 p.m. ET, Saturday, November 11, 2023
Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ACC Network
Duke vs. North Carolina Public Betting Prediction
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 62% of bets are on Duke. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Duke Blue Devils Game Notes
Duke starting quarterback Riley Leonard will miss Saturday’s game and likely a couple more contests after that with a left toe injury. Leonard has thrown for 1,103 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions this season while achieving a QBR of 69.3.
Duke backup quarterback Henry Belin IV has missed the team’s last two games with an upper-body injury, and he’s listed as questionable for this weekend’s game against UNC. Belin has a QBR of 66.0 in four games of action this year.
If both Leonard and Belin are out, the Blue Devils will turn to third-string freshman QB Grayson Loftis. Loftis started in Duke’s 24-21 home win over Wake Forest last weekend but struggled, only completing 7 of 19 passes for 86 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception.
North Carolina Tar Heels Game Notes
North Carolina running backs George Pettaway (undisclosed) and Caleb Hood (upper body) are both questionable for Saturday’s home date with Duke. Tar Heels wide receiver Nate McCollum is also questionable for this weekend’s game with a lower-body injury. McCollum has 34 catches for 387 yards and a touchdown in 7 games this year.
Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Trends
North Carolina is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games
North Carolina is 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games against Duke.
Duke is 3-7 ATS as a road underdog since the beginning of the 2021 season.
North Carolina is 13-11 ATS as a home favorite since the beginning of the 2020 season.
Duke vs. North Carolina Betting Prediction
Duke might be starting their third-string quarterback in this game. That’s a problem as Blue Devils QB Grayson Loftis is a true freshman who only posted a QBR of 16.2 last week against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 98th in the country in opponent yards per pass attempt. Duke did score 24 points in their win over Wake Forest last weekend, but they ran for 181 yards and needed 2 turnovers and a last-second field goal to secure the victory.
North Carolina’s offense still features future NFL first-round draft pick Drake Maye and a talented group of skill players around him. The Tar Heels are averaging 36.6 points per game, which ranks 12th in the nation. They also average 509.4 yards of total offense per game, which ranks 3rd in the country. I don’t see how Duke will be able to score enough to stay in this game, as the Blue Devils are trotting out a backup QB against one of the best offenses in the country. I like the Tar Heels to win big at home on Saturday.