The 1:00 p.m. ET Fiesta Bowl matchup will feature Liberty vs. Oregon from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ. Even with Bo Nix back for Oregon, will the Ducks cover as a 17.5-point favorite against the Flames? Or is Liberty the better bet to back as an underdog?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
277 Liberty Flames (+17.5) vs. 278 Oregon Ducks (-17.5); o/u 67.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Monday, January 1, 2024
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
TV: ESPN
Liberty vs. Oregon Public Betting Information
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 55% of bets are on Oregon. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Liberty Flames Game Notes
Kaidon Salter went 4-for-11 for 22 yards and a touchdown against UTEP on Saturday. He also ran 13 times for 76 yards.
The Flames ran all over the Miners and led 35-7 heading into the fourth quarter, which likely played a role in these numbers for Salter. Still, it means that the quarterback is still under 2,500 passing yards and 30 passing touchdowns, though he is also now also at 899 rushing yards.
Oregon Ducks Game Notes
Tony Franklin will opt out of Oregon’s Fiesta Bowl matchup against Liberty to prepare for the NFL Draft, Matt Zenitz of 247Sports.com reports.
Franklin previously officially declared for the 2024 NFL Draft, so his decision to opt out of the Fiesta Bowl doesn’t necessarily come as a surprise. The dynamic receiver had an outstanding season with the Ducks in 2023, catching 81 passes for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns and being named a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation’s top receiver. Franklin is expected to potentially be one of the first receivers off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Liberty vs. Oregon Betting Trends
Liberty is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Liberty’s last 7 games
Oregon is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Oregon is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Liberty vs. Oregon Betting Prediction
Take Liberty. Tulane over USC. Boise State over Arizona. Houston over Florida State. UCF over Auburn. When we get to New Year’s Day bowl action, it has often been about the Group of Five “champion.” Even when the Group of Five team loses on this day, it still puts together a respectable performance. Western Michigan hung with Wisconsin in a 24-16 loss in the 2017 Cotton Bowl and UCF nearly upset LSU in a 40-32 loss in the 2019 Fiesta.
Did Cincinnati pull off the upset against Bama in the CFB semi-final? No, but the Group of Five champ still has an impressive track record in these games. Again, Tulane stunned USC 46-45 a year ago on this day.
Even though Nix has decided to play one more time for Oregon, Liberty will hang today. Jamey Chadwell will take a similar approach as Washington did in the Pac-12 title game and run the ball straight at Oregon. The Ducks don’t care about time of possession, which means their defense could be on the field a lot. That’s fine when you’re playing the bottom feeders in the Pac-12 and something is on the line. When you’re playing a Liberty program that is trying to make a name for itself by toppling a Power Five program that could be playing for a trip to the national championship today had it not thrown up on itself in the Pac-12 title game, it’s a different story.
The Flames didn’t get to 13-0 straight up and 9-4 against the spread on accident. Yes, this is a step up in class but Liberty will be up for the challenge. They probably don’t win but my God, this is way too many points to lay. This isn’t Georgia vs. a depleted, unmotivated FSU team.
Liberty vs. Oregon Prediction: LIBERTY FLAMES +17.5
