Navy vs. UCF Prediction & Odds
Unranked Navy heads to Orlando to face #20 Central Florida at 11:00 AM ET on Saturday. Can the Midshipmen cover the spread as 16-point road underdogs?
Navy is 3-7 on the year, with their best wins coming against East Carolina and Tulsa. Their worst losses came against Delaware and Memphis. The Midshipmen are 6-4 ATS on the year.
Central Florida is 8-2 on the year with their best wins coming against Cincinnati and Tulane. Their only two losses came against Louisville and East Carolina. The Knights are 7-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
357 Navy Midshipmen (+16) at 358 UCF Knights (-16); O/U 53
11:00 AM ET Saturday, November 19th, 2022
FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL
Navy vs. UCF Public Betting Information
The public favors the Midshipmen in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 73% of public bets are on Navy +16. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Navy Game Notes
Navy’s starting quarterback Tai Lavatai suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Midshipmen’s win over Temple on October 29th. At the end of last week’s game against Notre Dame, Navy backup QB Xavier Arline was removed from the game with a lower-body injury. Arline has been listed as questionable all week but has recently been downgraded to doubtful. Navy will likely start third-string quarterback Maasai Maynor on Saturday. Maynor completed 4 of 7 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown in relief of Xavier Arline last week against Notre Dame.
The leader of the Midshipmen’s defense is senior linebacker John Marshall. Marshall leads Navy with 78 total tackles and is the team leader in sacks as well with 6.5. On top of that, Marshall has also recorded 7 passes defended, a forced fumble, and an interception on the season. He’ll need to play a great game if Navy is going to cover the number this weekend.
UCF Game Notes
Central Florida is coming off a monster win over conference-leading Tulane on the road last weekend. In that game senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee was the difference-maker. Against Tulane Plumlee threw for 132 yards and 1 touchdown and added 176 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. He’ll have to show out again if UCF is going to win by three scores or more.
Knights junior linebacker Jason Johnson is second in the American Athletic Conference with 93 total tackles on the year. Johnson has recorded at least 4 solo tackles in each of the Knights’ past 7 games and is only getting better as evidenced by his performance last weekend. In that game, Johnson recorded 8 total tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble in Central Florida’s 38-31 win over Tulane. Jason Johnson will likely have to make several solo tackles if UCF is going to cover the number on Saturday.
Navy vs. UCF State Betting Trends
Navy is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record.
Navy is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 conference games.
Navy is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an outright loss.
UCF is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games against teams with a losing record.
Navy vs. UCF Betting Prediction
This is a tough spot for Central Florida. They’re coming off the biggest win of their season and they have to face a team in Navy that is a nightmare to prepare for because of how different their offense is to anyone else in college football. The fact that the Midshipmen will likely have to start a third-string quarterback might be an advantage for Navy because third-stringer Maasai Maynor is more of a passing threat than backup QB Xavier Arline. Navy wears teams down as evidenced by their second-half time of possession share percentage of 59.59%, a figure that ranks 2nd in the nation. Navy has never lost to UCF by more than 11 points, and I think that trend continues on Saturday. I’ll take the Midshipmen and the points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: NAVY MIDSHIPMEN +16
