North Carolina vs. Virginia Prediction
Number seventeen North Carolina heads to Charlottesville to face unranked Virginia at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Tar Heels cover the spread as 7-point road favorites?
North Carolina is 7-1 on the year, and their best wins came against Appalachian State and Duke. Their only loss was to Notre Dame. The Tar Heels are 4-3-1 ATS on the season.
Virginia is 3-5 on the year with their best wins coming against Old Dominion and Georgia Tech. Their worst losses were to Louisville and Miami. The Cavaliers are 3-5 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
323 North Carolina Tar Heels -7 at 324 Virginia Cavaliers +7; O/U 60.5
12:00 PM ET Saturday, November 5th, 2022
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
North Carolina vs. Virginia Public Betting Information
The public favors the Tar Heels in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 65% of public bets are on North Carolina -7. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
North Carolina Game Notes
North Carolina’s Drake Maye has been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this year. Maye is fourth in the country in passing yards (2,671), tied for first in the country in touchdown passes (29), ranks fifth in yards per pass attempt (9.7), ranks third in the country in passer rating (185.5) and has the fourth-best QBR in the country (90.2). However, all of Maye’s three interceptions have come on the road this season and he’s taken 14 of his 19 sacks on the road as well. This will be a true road test for the talented freshman quarterback.
On defense, North Carolina’s best player is linebacker Cedric Gray. Gray has 82 total tackles this season, which is tied for second-best in the ACC. Gray has also added 2 passes defended, 2 interceptions, and 2 forced fumbles on the season. He’ll need to make his presence felt if UNC is going to win by more than a touchdown on Saturday.
Virginia Game Notes
There are two main injury situations to monitor for Virginia before Saturday’s game. The first is the status of top running back Perris Jones. Jones is doubtful for Saturday’s contest against North Carolina with an ankle injury. He has 365 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns on the season while averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
The more uncertain and more important question is the health of Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong left last weekend’s game with a lower leg injury and is officially questionable for Saturday’s game. Armstrong is having a tough year, only completing 55.7% of his passes on a measly 6.7 yards per attempt. His touchdown pass-to-interception ratio is not great at 6-9.
Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott seems optimistic about Armstrong’s chance at playing, saying, “He’s full speed, full go, he’s a warrior.” If Armstrong is unable to play, Virginia will likely call upon sophomore Jay Woolfolk. Woolfolk has only seen significant game action in one game in his career and it came last year against Notre Dame. In that contest, Jay Woolfolk completed 18 of 33 passes for 196 yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions.
Luckily for the Cavaliers, the Tar Heels are giving up 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 104th in the nation. Virginia will need to complete some chunk passes to hang with North Carolina and cover this game.
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Trends
North Carolina is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after gaining more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
North Carolina is 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
Virginia is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in their previous game.
North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Virginia.
North Carolina vs. Virginia Betting Prediction
North Carolina has a big game at #21 Wake Forest next weekend. It’s a night game that’s going to be on ESPN2. I could see the Tar Heels potentially looking past this game, especially if Virginia quarterback Brennan Armstrong ends up not playing.
For Virginia, they need to go 3-1 in their last 4 games to get to 6-6 and be bowl-eligible. That likely means winning either this game or next weekend at home against Pittsburgh. The Cavaliers might not win this game, but they won’t have to in order to cover the spread. I’ll take Virginia and the points.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 10 PREDICTION: VIRGINIA CAVALIERS +7
