Purdue vs. Illinois Prediction & Odds
Unranked Purdue travels to Champaign to face #21 Illinois at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Boilermakers cover the spread as 6.5-point road underdogs?
Purdue is 5-4 on the year, with their best wins coming against Minnesota and Maryland. Their worst losses came against Wisconsin and Iowa. The Boilermakers are 3-6 ATS on the year.
Illinois is 7-2 on the year with their best wins coming against Minnesota and Wisconsin. Their only losses came against Indiana and Michigan State. The Fighting Illini are 6-3 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
173 Purdue Boilermakers +6.5 at 174 Illinois Fighting Illini -6.5; O/U 44.5
12:00 PM ET Saturday, November 12th, 2022
Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL
Purdue vs. Illinois Public Betting Information
The public favors the Boilermakers in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that 59% of public bets are on Purdue +6.5. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Purdue Game Notes
Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell has been slinging the ball all around the field this season. He is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (2,438) and passing attempts (358). O’Connell has completed 64% of his passes this season, but he’s been prone to turnovers as his touchdown pass-to-interception ratio is a mediocre 15-10. That could come into play against an Illinois defense that ranks second in the nation in takeaways per game.
Purdue’s leading tackler on defense is junior safety Sanoussi Kane. Kane has 43 total tackles, a sack, a pass defended, a forced fumble, and a fumble recovery on the season. Kane and fellow safety Cam Allen will likely be called upon to provide run support at the line of scrimmage to attempt to mitigate Illinois’ potent rushing attack.
Illinois Game Notes
Illinois running back Chase Brown might be the best back in the country. He’s certainly having the best season of any running back in college football. Chase Brown leads the nation in rushing attempts (257) and rushing yards (1,344). He’s averaging 28.6 rushing attempts per game this season while gaining an average of 5.2 yards per carry. Brown might get 30+ carries in this game against a Purdue defense that ranks 64th in the country in opponent yards per rushing attempt.
On defense, Illinois is supported by one of the best secondaries in the nation. They lead the country with 1.8 interceptions per game and have four defensive backs with at least 2 interceptions. The best of the bunch is likely Sydney Brown. Brown is third on the team in total tackles with 38, third on the team in passes defended with 7, leads the club in interceptions with 4, and has also recorded a sack and a forced fumble this season. If Sydney Brown and the rest of Illinois’ elite secondary can force Aidan O’Connell into some mistakes, the Illini should be able to cover this game.
Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Trends
Purdue is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Illinois is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
Illinois is 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following an outright loss.
Illinois is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
Purdue vs. Illinois Betting Prediction
Illinois has been the best team in the Big Ten West all season. They sit at 7-2 while the next closest teams are 5-4. Illinois really needs this game to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game, because they have to go to #3 Michigan next week.
But the real kicker for this game is Illinois’ defense and their running game. The Fighting Illini have the nation’s leading rusher and a defense that ranks in the top 3 nationally in opponent yards per play, opponent points per play, and opponent yards per point. I think Illinois’ running game and defense are enough for them to win this game by a touchdown or more.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 11 PREDICTION: ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI -6.5
