Purdue vs. Minnesota Prediction & Odds
Number 21 Minnesota hosts conference rival Purdue at 12:00 PM ET on Saturday. Can the Gophers cover the double-digit spread as home favorites and remain unbeaten?
Purdue is 2-2 on the season, with wins over Indiana State and Florida Atlantic. They lost close games to Penn State and Syracuse. The Boilermakers are 1-3 ATS on the season.
Minnesota is 4-0 with wins over New Mexico State, Western Illinois, Colorado, and Michigan State already on the season. The Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS on the year.
Game Matchup and Betting Odds
145 Purdue Boilermakers +12 at 146 Minnesota Golden Gophers -12; O/U 52
12:00 PM ET Saturday, October 1st, 2022
Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
Purdue vs. Minnesota Public Betting Information
The public is heavily favoring the Golden Gophers in this game. Our CFB Public Betting Page shows that a whopping 88% of public bets are on Minnesota -12. Do note that those numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Purdue Game Notes
The big question mark for this game is Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell. The senior from Long Grove, IL missed last week’s contest against Florida Atlantic, a 28-26 Purdue win. As of this writing, O’Connell is questionable for Saturday’s game with Minnesota. He should make a big difference as he’s thrown for 1,000 yards, 8 touchdowns, and 1 interception in just three games on the campaign.
If O’Connell doesn’t play, then backup QB Austin Burton will take the reins. Burton threw for 199 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception in the victory over Florida Atlantic last Saturday. Purdue running back King Doerue is also questionable for Saturday’s game. This means the Boilers will likely rely on their two-headed monster of running backs Dylan Downing and Devin Mockobee, who are both averaging over 5 yards per carry on the season.
Minnesota Game Notes
For the Golden Gophers, it’s all about the running game. Star tailback Mohamed Ibrahim is second in the country in rushing yards (567) and rushing touchdowns (8) through 4 games. As a team, Minnesota is second in the country in rushing yards at 294.5 yards per game, behind only Air Force. But Purdue’s run defense is a tad underrated, as they only gave up 98 rushing yards to Penn State and 125 rushing yards to Syracuse.
This means that Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan may have to make some plays. The senior from Union, KY has 886 passing yards, 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception on the year. He is 8th in the nation with a QBR of 88.8 out of 100. Morgan has a bevy of receivers to throw to, and he may have to air it out to cover the 12-point spread in this game.
Purdue vs. Minnesota Betting Trends
Purdue is 13-10 straight up since the beginning of 2020.
Minnesota is 16-8 straight up since the beginning of 2020.
90% of the handle is on Minnesota -12.
Purdue is 9-8 ATS dating back to the beginning of last year.
Minnesota is 12-4-1 ATS dating back to the beginning of last season.
The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams.
The over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two teams.
The over is 5-1 in Purdue’s last 6 games overall.
The over is 6-0 in Purdue’s last 6 games following an outright win.
Purdue vs. Minnesota Betting Prediction
The public is hammering Minnesota -12 in this game and it’s easy to see why. The Gophers are rushing for nearly 300 yards per game and they’re 6th in the country in opponent yards per play. But I think they’ve feasted on some soft competition early in the year. Their 3 blowout wins were against two of the worst teams in the FBS (New Mexico State and Colorado) and an FCS team (Western Illinois). The Gophers’ win at Michigan State last week was legit, but I’m not so sure they can follow it up with an early kickoff against an inferior opponent in Purdue. Apparently, Aidan O’Connell suffered his injury in the first quarter of the Syracuse game. He remained in the game and had his best game of the season (424 passing yards, 3 touchdowns 87.4 QBR). If he suits up and plays close to that level, I think Purdue has a legit chance to cover this game.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 5 PREDICTION: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS +12
