Will USC handle its business at the Big House on Saturday afternoon? Will Tennessee continue to roll when it takes on OU in Norman, OK? Can Utah take down Oklahoma State?
Friday College Football Best Bets Recap
While Nebraska lost outright to Illinois as an 8-point home favorite, my other two best bets both cashed. Stanford (+8.5) beat Syracuse outright in a wild matchup at the Carrier Dome. The San Jose State-Washington State over also cashed easily in the Cougars’ 54-52 win over the Spartans.
Following a good start to the week, here are my three top spread picks for Saturday’s action.
Saturday College Football Best Spread Bets: USC Trojans -4
Michigan has home field advantage but how did that work out against Texas? This is not the UM offense under Jim Harbaugh and J.J. McCarthy that won the national championship last season. The Wolverines haven’t had much of an offense through three weeks. It was a grind to score 30 and 28 points against Fresno State and Arkansas State, respectively, and UM could only muster 12 points versus Texas.
Meanwhile, USC has made strides on defense. Shutting out Utah State is one thing, but holding LSU’s explosive offense to only 20 points in the opener was impressive. Unlike in previous years under head coach Lincoln Riley, defense has been more of a focal point for the Trojans this season. They hit hard, they actually tackle and they’re flying around the field.
Michigan still has a stout defense and under former NFL defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale, the Wolverines will throw different looks at USC. That said, I don’t trust Michigan’s offense to keep pace today.
Saturday College Football Best Spread Bets: Utah Utes -1.5
The spread for this game “jumped the fence,” as Oklahoma State went from a 2.5-point home favorite to an underdog. That’s a great sign for the health status of Utah quarterback Cam Rising, who should play today based on the line movement.
On the surface, it doesn’t look like there’s anything amidst with Oklahoma State’s offense. The Cowboys scored 45 points last week at Tulsa, 39 points in an overtime with over Arkansas and 44 points in their opener versus South Dakota State.
That said, Utah’s defense will be an entirely different challenge today. The Cowboys run a rather conservative passing scheme, one that doesn’t force Alan Bowman to challenge vertically. They throw a lot underneath passes, which works well against opponents that can’t tackle. That’s not Utah, which also generates a healthy amount of pressure (51.5% pressure rate generated, which ranks second in the FBS).
If Rising is healthy, I’m ready to roll with the better team today in Stillwater.
Saturday College Football Best Spread Bets: Tennessee Vols -6.5
Perhaps I’m overacting to their first three games, but the Vols look like a wagon. They blew out Kent State 71-0 and Chattanooga, 69-3. Their most impressive performance was a 51-10 blowout of N.C. State. None of those opponents are Oklahoma, which makes laying 6.5 points tonight nerve-racking.
That said, Tennessee should be able to move the ball through the air against this Oklahoma defense. The Sooners have been vulnerable in the downfield passing game this season, which was also a problem in 2023. OU’s secondary is virtually the same unit as it was a season, which again, isn’t a good thing. Josh Heupel will continue to scheme up ways for Nico Iamaleava to pick apart the Sooners, who I doubt will get much of a pass rush tonight.
Finally, the Vols have done a great job defensively on third downs this season. They’ve forced opponents into third-and-long at a 30% rank, which is 31st in the nation. They’ve also allowed zero third-and-long conversations (0-12).