Unranked Vanderbilt heads to Gainesville to face unranked Florida at 4:00 PM ET on Saturday on SEC Network. Can the Gators cover the 18.5-point spread as home favorites this weekend? Check out our 2023 Vanderbilt vs. Florida Betting Prediction to see what the experts think.
Vanderbilt is 2-4 straight up this season and 0-6 against the spread. Their best win came against Hawai’i and their worst loss came against UNLV.
Florida is 3-2 straight up this season and 1-4 against the spread. Their best win came against Tennessee, and their worst loss came against Kentucky.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Game Matchup & Betting Odds
323 Vanderbilt Commodores (+18.5) at 324 Florida Gators (-18.5); O/U 51
4:00 PM ET, Saturday, October 7, 2023
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Public Betting Information
As of this writing, the public is favoring the Gators in this game. Our CFB Public Betting page shows that 52% of public bets are on Florida -18.5. Note that these numbers are subject to change and could be different once game time rolls around.
Vanderbilt Commodores Game Notes
Vanderbilt starting quarterback AJ Swann missed the team’s 38-21 loss to Missouri last week with an elbow contusion, but he’s probably for this weekend’s game against Florida. Swann has completed 93 of 173 passes for 1,290 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions this season.
Vanderbilt starting Z-receiver London Humphreys is questionable for this weekend’s game with an ankle injury. Humphreys missed last week’s game against Missouri with that same injury and was limited in practice this week. Humphreys is one of the better freshman receivers in the country as he’s racked up 12 catches for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns this season.
Battle ready. pic.twitter.com/WmAk2xVP4h
— Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 7, 2023
Florida Gators Game Notes
Florida starting Z-receiver Eugene Wilson III is questionable for this weekend’s game against Vanderbilt as he’s dealing with a collarbone injury. Wilson has missed the team’s last two games with the same injury. For the season, the freshman wideout has 12 catches for 104 yards and 2 carries for 27 yards.
Florida starting X-receiver Caleb Douglas is out indefinitely with a lower-leg injury, and there’s currently no timetable for his return. Douglas has 11 catches for 133 yards and a touchdown in 4 games of action for the Gators this season.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Betting Trends
Florida is 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
Florida is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
The under is 6-3-1 in Florida’s last 10 games.
The over is 6-0 in Vanderbilt’s 6 games this season.
Vanderbilt vs. Florida Betting Prediction
Vanderbilt is the only team in the country that is 0-6 against the spread this season, and that’s why this line is as high as it is. In Florida’s three wins, the only team they beat by more than 15 points was McNeese in Week 2. The Gators only topped Charlotte by 15 points in Week 4. When you look at the underlying numbers, these two teams aren’t that far apart.
When it comes to points per play margin, Florida is ranked 73rd in the nation, and Vanderbilt is ranked 85th. When you look at yards per point margin, Vanderbilt is ranked 70th in that metric while Florida is ranked 92nd.
There’s also the fact that the Gators are quarterbacked by former Wisconsin Badger Graham Mertz. Mertz got run out of town at Wisconsin due to his mediocre QB play that wound up getting multiple head coaches fired. He only completed 57.3% of his passes last season for Wisconsin and had a TD-INT ratio of 19-10. Mertz has been better this year (79% completion percentage, 6-2 TD-INT) but he’s shown that he’s been prone to inconsistency before. Florida has a big game against South Carolina next weekend, and I could see them overlooking Vanderbilt on Saturday. I like the Commodores to get their first ATS win of the year on the road this weekend.