Unranked Vanderbilt heads to Lexington to face unranked Kentucky at 7:45 PM ET on the SEC Network on Saturday night. Can the Commodores cover the 12.5-point spread as road underdogs this weekend? Keep reading for our Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky betting prediction.
Vanderbilt is 3-2 straight up this season and 4-1 against the spread. Their best win came against Alabama, and their worst loss came against Georgia State.
Kentucky is 3-2 straight up this season and 4-1 against the spread. Their best win came against Ole Miss, and their worst loss came against South Carolina.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Matchup & Betting Odds
129 Vanderbilt Commodores (+12.5) at 130 Kentucky Wildcats (-12.5); o/u 44.5
7:45 p.m. ET, Saturday, October 12, 2024
Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
TV: SEC Network
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Public Betting Prediction
As of this writing, our CFB Public Betting page shows that 87% of bets are on Vanderbilt. That said, this page is updated frequently so make sure that you click on the link provided so that you’re getting the most updated information.
Vanderbilt Commodores Game Notes
Commodores tight end Brycen Coleman (collarbone) and cornerback Mark Davis (Achilles) are both out for Saturday’s road tilt with Kentucky.
Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia had a monster game in his team’s 40-35 upset win over Alabama last Saturday. In that contest, the New Mexico State transfer completed 16 of 20 passes for 252 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. He also ran the ball 20 times for 56 yards in the victory. Pavia’s total QBR of 80.7 ranks 18th in the nation this season.
Kentucky Wildcats Game Notes
Wildcats QB Brock Vandagriff and defensive lineman Keeshawn Silver are both probable to play this weekend with undisclosed injuries.
Kentucky OL Gerald Mincey, DB Maxwell Hairston, and WR Brandon White are all officially listed as questionable for Saturday’s contest with undisclosed injuries.
Wildcats OL Jager Burton, RB Jason Patterson, DL Josaih Hayes DL Tavion Gadson, OL Courtland Ford, DL Darrion Henry-Young, and LB Devin Smith have all been ruled out with undisclosed injuries this weekend.
Additionally, Kentucky running back Deamonte Trayanum (hand) and wide receiver Hardley Gilmore (collarbone) will both sit out Saturday’s game against Vanderbilt.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Betting Trends
Vanderbilt is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
The Commodores are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games against Kentucky.
Kentucky is 1-4-1 ATS after a bye week since the start of the 2021 season.
Kentucky is 1-5-1 ATS with the rest advantage since the beginning of the 2021 season.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Betting Prediction
I think I understand why this line is so high. Vanderbilt is coming off of the biggest win in school history, a 40-35 victory over mighty Alabama last weekend. It would make sense for the Commodores to be beaten up after that game. Vanderbilt might have also done some celebrating on campus this week that could dilute their focus for this weekend’s game. But those assertions seem a bit reductive and presumptuous to me. Vanderbilt almost beat Missouri in Week 4 and did beat Alabama last weekend. The Commodores are a good team.
Kentucky didn’t play last weekend, so they’re coming off of a bye for this contest. The numbers suggest that might not be a good thing. Since 2013, when Mark Stoops became the head coach, Kentucky is 6-16-1 ATS with the rest advantage. In that same span, the Wildcats are 8-14-1 ATS after a bye week. I get why Kentucky is favored in this game, I just don’t think the line should be comfortably in double digits. I’m taking the Commodores and the points on the road in Lexington on Saturday night.