Arizona Cardinals Win Total Prediction
The Arizona Cardinals were a bad football team in 2022. They went 4-13 and had the third-worst record in the NFL.
The Cardinals’ starting quarterback Kyler Murray tore his ACL in December against New England, and he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season. The Cardinals seem intent on rebuilding in 2023 with an eye on the 2024 NFL Draft class and some of its elite QBs. Will a new front office and coaching staff in Arizona lead to them winning even one-third of their games?
Arizona Cardinals Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 4.5 +100
Under 4.5 -120
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Arizona Cardinals were a trainwreck from start to finish. Everything that could have seemingly gone wrong, did. Legitimate questions were raised in the 2021 offseason about Cardinals QB Kyler Murray’s work ethic and investment in the game. The Cardinals ended up paying him $230.5 million over 5 years anyway that offseason. In 2022 Kyler Murray went 3-8 as the starter, threw for 2,368 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt and achieving a middling passer rating of 87.5. Murray did run for 418 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he posted a mediocre QBR of 51.5 which was worse than Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Marcus Mariota. If that wasn’t bad enough, Murray tore his ACL in a Week 14 Monday Night Football game in a brutal non-contact injury. The Cardinals, who weren’t good with Murray were even worse without him as they lost that Week 14 game then lost four more after that with a combination of Colt McCoy, Trace McSorley, and David Blough all taking snaps at quarterback. Cardinals owner and president Michael Bidwill had apparently seen enough as he fired both general manager Steve Keim and head coach Kliff Kingsbury, seemingly content to undertake a lengthy team rebuilding process.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: J.J. Watt (retired), WR Deandre Hopkins (released), WR Robbie Anderson, IDL Zach Allen, CB Byron Murphy Jr., G Justin Pugh, EDGE Markus Golden, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, QB Trace McSorley
Key Player Additions: LB Kyzir White, RG Dennis Daley, LB Krys Barnes, CB Rashad Fenton, WR Zach Pascal, QB Jeff Driskel, T Paris Johnson Jr. (1st round pick), EDGE BJ Ojulari (2nd round pick), CB Garrett Williams (3rd round pick), QB Clayton Tune (5th round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Arizona Cardinals’ offense will likely struggle regardless of if/when Kyler Murray is ready to play again. He suffered the ACL injury in December of 2022 and the recovery time for that injury is around nine months. Some players take longer to return, while others can return quicker than nine months. But because Arizona is rebuilding, they could place Murray on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list to start the season, meaning he would have to sit out the year’s first four games. The team may elect to hold Murray out for longer if they’re not satisfied with his recovery or simply want to tank. If Murray is unable to play, the Cardinals QB depth chart features Colt McCoy, rookie Clayton Tune, former Houston Texan Jeff Driskel, and former Detroit Lion David Blough. Arizona is also both young and thin at many spots on offense including the line and wide receiver spots. With Kyler Murray playing 11 games, the Cardinals’ offense ranked 29th in yards per play and 25th in points per play. Without him, they figure to be much worse. Arizona will almost surely struggle in all three phases but the offense may be the worst of the three.
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On defense, Arizona added a few nice players like linebacker Kyzir White from Philadelphia, LSU edge rusher BJ Ojulari, and Syracuse cornerback Garrett Williams through the draft. But the losses of defensive end J.J. Watt, edge rusher Markus Golden, interior defensive lineman Zach Allen, and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. should outweigh any potential player additions that the Cardinals made. Arizona wasn’t very active in free agency this season as they are trying to keep their costs down and their roster young as they undergo a rebuilding process. Arizona currently has the fifth most cap space available based on estimates from Spotrac, and their roster has an average age of 26.16 years old. Arizona’s defense allowed 0.418 points per play last season, a figure which ranked second-worst in the league. Their 2022 draft was highlighted by edge rushers Cameron Thomas and Myjai Sanders and they combined for just 6 sacks last year. How well those two improve and how some of the Cardinals’ 2023 defensive draft picks perform will likely determine whether or not the Cardinals can win 5 games in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Head coach Kliff Kingsbury, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, co-pass game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Cameron Turner, associate head coach/wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Jonathan Gannon, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, quarterbacks coach Israel Woolfork
Heads had to roll after Arizona’s abysmal campaign last season. And roll they did. The Cardinals fired head coach Kliff Kingsbury and general manager Steve Keim officially resigned from his position, but he may have been out the door anyway. Kingsbury served as the Cardinals’ de facto offensive coordinator as he called the team’s plays and handled Kyler Murray directly. He finishes his career as the Arizona head coach with a record of 28-37-1 and many wonder whether he was truly qualified for the job in the first place. The Cardinals had a bad habit of fading at the end of the season under Kingsbury, and he paid the ultimate price for it. Cardinals defensive coordinator Vance Joseph left to take the same position with the Denver Broncos, Cameron Turner is now the quarterbacks coach for the Indianapolis Colts and Shawn Jefferson is coaching the wide receivers in Carolina.
New Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon was Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator last year and it will be his first head coaching job at 40 years old. Some are calling new Cardinals defensive coordinator Nick Rallis the “Sean McVay of defense” as he becomes the youngest defensive coordinator in the league at age 29. Former Cleveland Browns quarterbacks coach Drew Petzing will take the mantle as Arizona’s offensive coordinator. This will be the first time he’s held that position in the NFL. Petzing is 36 years old and part of Arizona’s youth coaching movement. It’s impossible to know whether these coaches will be good in their new roles and the Cardinals roster doesn’t inspire confidence anyway. There may be some growing pains on the sidelines as well as on the field in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The Arizona Cardinals had to move on from Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim as the combination of those two simply wasn’t producing satisfactory results. But as is often the case, things will likely get worse in Glendale before they get better. Cardinals owner Michael Bidwill seems okay with that. He should be because this team is likely going to lose a lot of football games in 2023. Arizona may outright tank the 2023 NFL season because they may have two top-five picks due to a draft-day trade they made with the Texans in this past year’s draft. There’s a realistic scenario where the Cardinals go 3-14 or 2-15 and end up with the #1 and #2 overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft where they would be able to select USC QB Caleb Williams (assuming they’re done with Kyler Murray) and star Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with the first two picks. Tanking a season for two potential franchise cornerstones seems like an easy decision. Plus, Arizona will be hard-pressed to win games even if they try to with a brand new coaching staff and a roster that skews young/inexperienced/untalented. I would be surprised if Arizona wins even five games this season, which is why I’m taking the under on the lowest total on the board in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: ARIZONA CARDINALS UNDER 4.5 WINS -120
