Atlanta Falcons Win Total Prediction
The Atlanta Falcons were a team in flux in 2022 as they finished 7-10 in a three-way tie for last place in the subpar AFC South.
Atlanta has the second-best odds to win the division in 2023 and will welcome in several new players that could make an impact right away. The Falcons went 5-8 in games started by QB Marcus Mariota last season. He’s gone now. Will second-year QB Desmond Ridder play well enough to lead the Falcons to a winning record in 2023?
Atlanta Falcons Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -120
Under 8.5 +100
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Falcons were very close to being a good team. Of their 10 losses, 8 of them were by 8 points or less. Former Tennessee Titan quarterback Marcus Mariota started the first 13 games of the season, then ceded the reins to rookie QB Desmond Ridder after the bye week for the club’s final four tilts. Ridder went 2-2 in his four starts, and he will have the starting job from day one in training camp this offseason.
Atlanta was one of the best running teams in the NFL last season as they were sixth in the league with an average of 4.9 yards per rushing attempt. Rookie running back Tyler Allgeier ran for 1,035 yards and 3 touchdowns while averaging an efficient 4.9 yards per tote. The problem for Atlanta in 2022 and what prevented them from making the playoffs was their pass defense. The Falcons gave up 7.0 yards per pass attempt last season, a figure that ranked 29th in the NFL. The Falcons addressed their pass defense in a big way this offseason. Atlanta was decent against an NFC South division that was down last year. The division be down even worse this season.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR Olamide Zaccheaus, LB Rashaan Evans, QB Marcus Mariota, WR Damiere Byrd, CB Mike Ford, RT Germain Ifedi
Key Player Additions: S Jessie Bates III, EDGE Bud Dupree, IDL David Onyemata, IDL Calais Campbell, WR Mack Hollins, QB Taylor Heinicke, CB Mike Hughes, RB Bijan Robinson (1st round pick), T Matthew Bergeron (2nd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
Atlanta’s rushing offense was tremendous last season, and it could be even better this year. The Falcons surprised many when they selected Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the #8 overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft. Robinson was coming off of a season where he racked up 1,894 scrimmage yards and 20 total touchdowns in 12 games for the Longhorns last season. Bringing Robinson in and selecting Syracuse offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron in the 2nd round should bolster what was already an effective rushing attack last season.
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The Falcons already have two stud pass catchers in wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts, but their depth at those two positions may be on the thin side. Atlanta addressed those deficiencies by bringing in former Raiders wideout Mack Hollins and trading for former Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith. There’s also the question of Desmond Ridder at quarterback. He seems to have the physical tools as well as the intangibles, and he went 44-6 as a college starter. I believe he’ll play well enough for the passing game to materially improve in 2023.
Atlanta was busy shoring up their defense this season. They added one of the best safeties in the NFL in former Cincinnati Bengal Jessie Bates III and signed one of the better edge rushers in the game in former Tennessee Titan Bud Dupree. The addition of veteran interior defensive linemen Calais Campbell and David Onyemata should enhance a rushing defense that was 19th in the NFL in opponent yards per rushing attempt last season.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Dean Pees, secondary coach Jon Hoke, quarterbacks coach Charles London
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, secondary coach Steve Jackson (promotion), offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Dave Ragone
The biggest loss for the Falcons offensive coaching staff was likely quarterbacks coach Charles London. London accepted a hybrid position with the Tennessee Titans as the passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith wants continuity for his young quarterback Desmond Ridder, and that may have factored into his decision to make current offensive coordinator Dave Ragone the club’s quarterbacks coach. Arthur Smith calls the plays on offense, so Ragone will likely be able to handle the required duties of both positions. Former assistant defensive backs coach Nick Perry has shifted to assistant wide receivers coach. He should help wide receivers coach T.J. Yates school the Falcons receivers in beating NFL defensive backs.
Atlanta’s 2022 defensive coordinator Dean Pees elected to retire after his club’s unit was the Falcons’ weak link most of the year. He’s replaced by former Saints defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen. Nielsen also held the title of assistant head coach for New Orleans in 2021 and co-defensive coordinator in 2022. Nielsen headed up a stout New Orleans Saints defensive front that was second in sacks since he joined their staff in 2021. From 2017 to 2020 New Orleans also put together a 55-game streak spanning regular and postseason games of not allowing a 100-yard rusher. Nielsen was likely a key component to the success of that unit over the past few years. There’s also the fact that former Saints linebacker Kaden Elliss and former Saints defensive lineman David Onyemata both cited Ryan Nielsen’s role as defensive coordinator as one of the reasons they elected to sign with Atlanta in free agency. The early word out of OTAs is that Ryan Nielsen is successfully straddling the line of being a players’ coach while also bringing a hard-nosed intensity to how he coaches. His personality should set the tone and have Atlanta’s defense playing markedly better in 2023 than they did in 2022.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The NFC South was the worst division in the NFL last season, and it figures to be down again in 2023. The Falcons went 2-4 in division games last year, but I could easily see them flipping that and going 4-2 in the NFC South this season. If they do, they’ll only need to win 5 out of their remaining 11 games. That seems doable. In the first 10 weeks, the Falcons get the following games at home: the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, the Texans, the Commanders, and the Vikings. In that same stretch, Atlanta plays the Jaguars in London (technically a road game), and the Titans and Cardinals on the road. It’s possible that Atlanta could be 7-3 heading into their bye week in Week 11. From there they’d only need to win 2 of their remaining 7 contests to cash the over.
I think this is a good situation for Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder as he will have a solid running game to lean on and he won’t have to make all kinds of crazy plays himself for Atlanta to win. He’ll be able to use play-action to free up receivers in the intermediate and deep areas of the field. Ridder will be backed by an above-average defense as well, which should help with field position. Even if Ridder does get hurt or suffer an injury, Atlanta has a very capable backup QB in Taylor Heinicke who has a career record of 12-12-1 in the regular season.
The additions of Jessie Bates, Bud Dupree, Calais Campbell, and David Onyemata should make new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s defense a strength as opposed to the weakness it ultimately was in 2022. Falcons head coach Arthur Smith went 7-10 in 2021 and 7-10 last year, but I believe that Atlanta turns some of those close losses last season into wins in 2023. I believe the Falcons will win the NFC South or secure a wild card spot and they’ll achieve a winning record and still be playing meaningful games come January.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: ATLANTA FALCONS OVER 8.5 WINS -120
