Baltimore Ravens Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Baltimore Ravens went 10-7 and narrowly lost in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs to the Bengals, 24-17. It marked Baltimore’s third 10-win season in a four-year span.
Can Baltimore surpass last season’s win total in a rough-and-tumble AFC in 2023?
Baltimore Ravens Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10.5 -105
Under 10.5 -125
2022 Season Recap
2022 marked the second straight season that Ravens QB Lamar Jackson only played in 12 of his team’s games. Jackson went 8-4 in those starts in 2022 and posted a stat line of 2,242 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He recorded a passer rating of 91.1 and a QBR of 59.1. On the ground, Jackson ran for 764 yards and 3 touchdowns, while averaging 6.8 yards per carry. Jackson’s absence was a big reason Baltimore floundered at the end of the season as they finished the year by going 3-3, with all three of those losses coming against division opponents. After all that chaos, Baltimore still made the playoffs and was a few plays away from knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals in the Wild Card round of the 2023 NFL playoffs with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback. Much was made about Lamar Jackson’s contract situation, and the Ravens did end up paying him. The only question now is, how will Jackson respond once he’s secured the contract he wanted for so long?
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: CB Marcus Peters, OG Ben Powers, S Chuck Clark (trade), TE Josh Oliver, WR Demarcus Robinson, IDL Calais Campbell, EDGE Justin Houston, EDGE Jason Pierre-Paul, CB Kyle Fuller
Key Player Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., RB Melvin Gordon, CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor, CB Trayvon Mullen, IDL Angelo Blackson, QB Josh Johnson, WR Zay Flowers (1st round pick), LB Trenton Simpson, (3rd round pick), EDGE Tavius Robinson (4th round pick)
The Baltimore Ravens front office seemingly had two goals this offseason: re-sign quarterback Lamar Jackson and surround him with weapons. They achieved the first goal, as Baltimore inked Jackson to a 5-year $260 million mega-deal that will keep him a Raven through the 2027 season. Jackson has missed an average of 5 games per year over the past two seasons, and that was before he got his contract. It remains to be seen whether that hefty number will pay off for the Ravens. Baltimore added wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor in free agency while also selecting Boston College speedster Zay Flowers in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. There will be no excuses or pointing to a “lack of weapons” if Lamar Jackson doesn’t produce as a passer this season.
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On defense, Baltimore largely re-signed who they had. They brought back linebacker Roquan Smith and interior defensive lineman Brent Urban while adding corners Rock Ya-Sin and Trayvon Mullen in free agency. It does seem like Baltimore’s defense could take a step back this season. The Ravens allowed 5.2 yards per play last season, which ranked 13th in the league. They lost veteran Pro Bowlers Marcus Peters, Calais Campbell, Justin Houston, and Jason Pierre-Paul from a defense that ranked 16th in opponent yards per pass attempt last season. Baltimore made a conscious decision to get younger on defense, but that may lead to some growing pains in 2023 as their youth and inexperience will likely rear its head at some point.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Greg Roman, safeties coach D’Anton Lynn, outside linebackers coach Rob Leonard
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Todd Monken, quarterbacks coach Tee Martin (promotion), running backs coach Willie Taggart, wide receivers coach Greg Lewis, outside linebackers coach Chuck Smith, defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson
The biggest change for Baltimore on the coaching front is the change in offensive coordinator. Former Ravens OC Greg Roman was lauded for his ability to design an offense that took advantage of Lamar Jackson’s prolific ability to run the ball. Roman’s offensive scheme won Jackson the NFL MVP award in 2019 and Baltimore had the best-scoring offense in the league that year as they poured in 33.8 points per game. The problem was, that type of offense likely wasn’t sustainable. Jackson has only played in 24 of his team’s last 34 regular season games, and part of that could be because of how often he was asked to run the ball. After Baltimore lost in the first round of the playoffs to Cincinnati last season, Greg Roman stepped down as the team’s offensive coordinator. The Ravens then elected to bring on former Georgia offensive coordinator Todd Monken. With Monken as Georgia’s offensive coordinator, the Bulldogs went 37-3 over three seasons and won back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022. Baltimore reportedly hired Monken to craft a more passing-oriented offense in the same vein as Georgia’s offense the past three years. I’m skeptical about how well it will work though, as Lamar Jackson hasn’t yet proven he’s a quarterback that can consistently win from the pocket. The offense may work eventually, but I’m dubious of it being an elite unit for the Ravens in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Depending on which metric you use, the 2023 Baltimore Ravens have anywhere from the 10th easiest schedule to the 10th hardest schedule. For their out-of-division games, the Ravens play the AFC South and the NFC West. For their swing games, Baltimore plays Detroit and Miami at home while they face the Los Angeles Chargers on the road. Baltimore went 3-3 in the division last season, so let’s say they have that same record in 2023. The Ravens seem likely to go 3-1 against the AFC South, so that puts them at 6-4. 1-2 seems like a fair record in their three swing games, which would put Baltimore at 7-6 with only their four games against the NFC West remaining. The Ravens would have to win all four of their games against the NFC West (which includes a road game against the 49ers on Christmas Day) to finish 11-7. I can’t see that happening.
The elephant in the room is the health of Lamar Jackson. He seemed less than enthused to make it back from whatever injury was bothering him before he got his massive contract. I can’t help but wonder whether he’ll try to hurry back from any injuries he may incur this season now that he has $185 million guaranteed coming his way. Even if Jackson is healthy the whole season, he seems to be regressing as a passer. Jackson posted career lows in yards per pass attempt (6.9), and net yards gained per pass attempt (6.05) last season. I’m skeptical that new offensive coordinator Todd Monken can turn Jackson into an elite passer over the next few years, and I’m even less sold on it happening in just a single off-season. I know it seems wild to go under on a coach as respected and successful as John Harbaugh, but the win total just recently jumped from 9.5 to 10.5. I liked the under at 9.5 and like it even better at 10.5 considering the uncertainty of Lamar Jackson’s health and the strength of the AFC this season. I think Baltimore wins 10 games or fewer in 2023, so I’m grabbing the under for the Ravens’ regular season win total.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: BALTIMORE RAVENS UNDER 10.5 WINS -125
