Carolina Panthers Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Carolina Panthers went 7-10 and fired their head coach Matt Rhule during the season. It marked their fifth consecutive losing campaign. Now Carolina has a new head coach and a new quarterback.
Can the Panthers improve their win total from a year ago with some new faces?
Carolina Panthers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 7.5 -125
Under 7.5 +105
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Carolina Panthers were an absolute mess. They started a combination of Baker Mayfield, PJ Walker, and Sam Darnold at quarterback on their way to a 7-10 record. Head coach Matt Rhule was fired after beginning the season 1-4 and interim head coach Steve Wilks guided Carolina to a 6-6 record after that. The 2022 Carolina Panthers were 23rd in the league with an average scoring margin of -1.6 per game and 22nd in the league in opponent’s yards per game (350.2). The Panthers’ offense wasn’t much better as they ranked 29th in yards per game with 306.2. Despite the disappointing finish, Carolina did actually manage to win more games in 2022 (7) than they did in 2021 (5). Now Carolina has a new head coach in Frank Reich and a new potential franchise quarterback in Heisman Trophy-winner Bryce Young. Will the Panthers win more games in 2023 than they did in 2022?
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR D.J. Moore (trade), IDL Matt Ioannidis, RB D’Onta Foreman, QB Sam Darnold, LB Cory Littleton, QB PJ Walker
Key Player Additions: S Vonn Bell, WR DJ Chark, WR Adam Thielen, RB Miles Sanders, TE Hayden Hurst, IDL Shy Tuttle, DL DeShawn Williams, QB Andy Dalton, QB Bryce Young (1st round pick), WR Jonathan Mingo (2nd round pick), EDGE DJ Johnson (3rd round pick)
Carolina was busy adding pieces through free agency and the draft this offseason. Their offense, which was 17th in yards per play last season (5.3) made several significant changes. The Panthers traded #1 wide receiver D.J. Moore to the Bears in order to move up to the #1 spot in the 2023 NFL Draft. There Carolina had their pick of quarterbacks and selected former Alabama star Bryce Young. Young figures to be the immediate starter, and he’ll be backed up by veteran journeyman Andy Dalton. Carolina replaced D.J. Moore with the trio of DJ Chark, Adam Thielen, and Jonathan Mingo. Carolina essentially sacrificed top-end talent for a depth-based approach when it came to addressing their receiving group. Running back D’Onta Foreman ran for 914 yards and 8 touchdowns last season, but he’ll be replaced by former Eagles running back Miles Sanders, who ran for a career-high 1,269 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2022. I like that move for Carolina a lot.
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On defense, Carolina replaced interior defensive lineman Matt Ioannidis with IDL Shy Tuttle. The Panthers also added 3-4 defensive end DeShawn Williams from Denver, and he should start right away for Carolina. Carolina’s biggest offseason move may have been the addition of former Cincinnati strong safety Vonn Bell. Bell and Jessie Bates III formed one of the NFL’s best safety duos for the Bengals last season. Bell recorded 4 interceptions and 3 forced incompletions for Cincinnati last year, and at age 28, he could stand to make a sizable impact on a Carolina defense that might be a few playmakers away from being an elite unit.
Key Coaching Departures: Head coach Matt Rhule, defensive coordinator Phil Snow, interim head coach Steve Wilks, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, interim defensive coordinator Al Holcomb, assistant head coach/offense Jeff Nixon, quarterbacks coach Sean Ryan, wide receivers coach Joe Dailey, defensive run game coordinator Mike Siravo
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Frank Reich, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, quarterbacks coach Josh McCown, wide receivers coach Shawn Jefferson, senior defensive assistant Dom Capers
Carolina began to clean house last season after only five games. After a 1-4 start, Carolina got rid of their head coach and defensive coordinator midway through the season. They then didn’t retain interim head coach Steve Wilks, interim defensive coordinator Al Holcomb, or offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo. Position coaches Sean Ryan (QBs) and Joe Dailey (WRs) were also let go as were assistant head coach Jeff Nixon and defensive run game coordinator Mike Siravo. It’s difficult to know how much of the Panthers’ slow start could be attributed to coaching as they only slightly improved once Matt Rhule and Phil Snow were fired.
New head coach Frank Reich is one of the more respected offensive minds in the game, and his record (40-33-1) isn’t too bad either. As the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts from 2018 to 2022, Reich made the playoffs twice and recorded three winning seasons in five years. For his coordinators in Carolina, Reich took a youth-based approach. He hired former Los Angeles Rams tight ends/running backs/assistant head coach Thomas Brown to be the offensive coordinator. It will be Brown’s first season as an NFL coordinator, though he did serve as the University of Miami’s offensive coordinator and running backs coach from 2016 to 2018. New Carolina defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero held the same position for the Denver Broncos last season, but that was his only year of NFL coordinator experience. Reich did bring in former NFL players to coach the quarterbacks (Josh McCown) and wide receivers (Shawn Jefferson) which could offer a unique perspective to players in those position groups in 2023. The problem lies with the inexperience of Frank Reich’s coordinators and his young rookie quarterback in my opinion. An experienced offensive coordinator and QBs coach could have done wonders for Bryce Young, but he’ll have to work with two coaches who have never held their positions at the NFL level before. There will be some bumps in the road, the only question is how jarring the ride will be.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Carolina plays the NFC North and AFC South for their non-division games this season. Their two swing games are tough however as they have to go to Jacksonville in Week 17 and they host Dallas in Week 11. There’s a pretty good chance Carolina loses both of those games. I also think that a 3-3 division record isn’t out of the question. That gives the Panthers 5 losses already. I could also see them losing two of their three road games against Seattle, Detroit, and Miami. That puts them at 7 losses. In Weeks 8-10, Carolina plays home games against Houston and Indianapolis, followed by a road tilt against the Bears. They then play at Tennessee in Week 12. I have them splitting those four games, which puts them at 9 losses. Then Carolina plays Green Bay at home on Christmas Eve in Week 16. I have the Packers winning that game, putting the Panthers at 10 losses for a record of 7-10.
And keep in mind, this scenario assumes that rookie QB Bryce Young stays healthy and plays respectably throughout the season. His health and his play certainly aren’t givens. Young is 5’10” 205 pounds, and he’s playing behind an offensive line that was 22nd in quarterback sack percentage (7.30%) last season. There’s a chance that Andy Dalton could be playing in December and Carolina could simply be trying to avoid going 5-12 for the second time in three years. I do think that Carolina will eventually be a playoff team with Frank Reich as the head coach and Bryce Young as the quarterback, I just don’t think it will be this season. I’m taking the Carolina Panthers under on 7.5 wins for 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: CAROLINA PANTHERS UNDER 7.5 WINS +105
