Cincinnati Bengals Win Totals Prediction
The 2022 Cincinnati Bengals went 12-4 and narrowly lost the AFC Championship Game to the Chiefs, 23-20. It marked their second consecutive 10-win season in a row.
Can Cincinnati match last season’s win total in a competitive AFC in 2023?
Cincinnati Bengals Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 11.5 +105
Under 11.5 -125
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Cincinnati Bengals were a top-six team in the NFL last season. They ranked in the top seven in points per game (25.7), points allowed per game (19.6), points per play margin (0.081), yards per point margin (3.5), and turnover margin per game (+0.4). Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow was elite last season. In 2022, Burrow threw for 4,475 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Burrow averaged 7.4 yards per pass attempt, recorded a passer rating of 100.8, and posted a QBR of 58.7. Burrow ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards last season and finished fourth in the NFL MVP award balloting. Burrow’s greatness propelled Cincinnati to within a few plays of making a second-straight Super Bowl. They’ll need him to be great again in 2023 if they want to get back to the big game for the second time in three seasons.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: S Jessie Bates III, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst, CB Eli Apple, RB Samaji Perine, CB Tre Flowers, QB Brandon Allen
Key Player Additions: T Orlando Brown, S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith Jr., LB Germaine Pratt, CB Sidney Jones, EDGE Myles Murphy (1st round pick), CB DJ Turner (2nd round pick), S Jordan Battle (3rd round pick), RB Chase Brown (5th round pick)
The Bengals seem to finally understand how important their franchise quarterback Joe Burrow is. Last season, Cincinnati allowed 2.8 sacks per game, a figure that ranked 26th in the NFL. Burrow has already missed most of a season with a torn ACL, and another major injury could tank Cincinnati’s season in 2023. The Bengals broke the bank for former Chiefs offensive tackle Orlando Brown, signing him to a 4-year $64.1 million contract this offseason. He’ll slot in at left tackle and should provide Joe Burrow some much-needed blindside protection in 2023. Cincinnati also added some weapons on offense. The Bengals signed former Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. in free agency to replace the loss of tight end Hayden Hurst. Cincinnati also drafted Illinois running back Chase Brown to replace the departed Samaji Perine. Brown was one of the more underrated players in college football last season as he ran for 1,643 yards and 10 touchdowns across 12 games for the Illini last year. Cincinnati’s offense should be as good or better than they were last season, as they filled multiple holes nicely.
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On defense, Cincinnati loses their top two safeties in Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell. Cornerback Eli Apple is also gone. The Bengals replaced Bates with former Rams free safety Nick Scott and drafted Alabama safety Jordan Battle to provide some depth at the strong safety position. To replace corner Eli Apple, Cincinnati drafted corners DJ Turner and DJ Ivey and signed former Raiders corner Sidney Jones. The back end of the Bengals’ defense could be a question mark all season, but the hope is that the front seven can put enough pressure on opposing passers for it not to matter all that much. Cincinnati defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has worked some miracles before, and I think he’s more than capable of fielding a respectable defense competent enough to complement Cincinnati’s high-powered offense in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: No notable departures
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: No notable additions
Cincinnati’s 2022 coaching staff returns intact for 2023. That should mean good things for the team’s ceiling due to how important continuity is in today’s NFL. It wasn’t like their coaches didn’t have offers from other teams either. Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan went through two rounds of interviews with the Indianapolis Colts for their head coaching position, but they elected to hire former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen instead. Cincinnati quarterbacks coach Dan Pitcher was a strong candidate for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator position, but he chose to come back to Cincinnati. Bengals wide receivers coach Troy Walters was a serious candidate to become the next offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans, but they decided to go with former 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik. So it’s clear that Cincinnati has talented coaches on the offensive side of the ball, and they are all set to return for 2023.
On defense, the Bengals have one of the most underrated defensive coordinators in the league. Lou Anarumo will be in his fifth season with the club in 2023 as he was hired by Bengals head coach Zac Taylor when he took over the reins in 2019. The Bengals’ scoring defense has improved with each successive season since Anarumo took over in 2019. The Bengals went from 25th in scoring defense in 2019, to 21st in 2020, to 13th in 2021, to 5th last season in 2022. The key to Cincinnati’s defensive success is forcing teams to play on long fields. Opposing teams may gain yards, but points come at a premium against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranked only 17th in opponent yards per game last season but two other stats demonstrate how effective the defense was. The Bengals were sixth in opponent points per play and second in opponent yards per point. They did lose some key players on defense, but I’m confident Lou Anarumo and the Bengals’ defensive coaching staff can figure out a way to make Cincinnati’s defense a strength again in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Cincinnati plays the AFC South and the NFC West for their non-division games. They also play the Bills and Vikings at home and have to go to Arrowhead to face Kansas City on New Year’s Eve in Week 17. The Bengals only went 3-3 against the division last season, as they lost weird games to the Steelers and Browns in the first half of the campaign. I see the Bengals going at least 4-2 in their division this next season as I don’t believe the Browns, Steelers, or Ravens will be that strong in 2023. Cincinnati could easily be 6-0 heading into their bye week in Week 7. From there, they’d only have to go 6-5 in the last 11 games to cash the over. That 11-game stretch contains three games against AFC South opponents and four divisional games. Twelve wins seems very possible for an experienced team with its entire coaching staff coming back.
There’s also the fact that Cincinnati has been linearly progressing upwards since Zac Taylor became the head coach. In his four seasons as Bengals head coach, Taylor has gone 2-14, 4-11, 10-7, and 12-4. The Bengals have won more games in consecutive each season under Taylor, and that positive trend line mirrors what was happening with Cincinnati’s defense under defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. I like the Bengals to win at least 12 games in 2023, and they have an outside shot at going 13-4 (or better) and setting the franchise record for most regular season wins in a single year. I’m backing Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow (as long as he can stay healthy) and taking the over for the Bengals in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: CINCINNATI BENGALS OVER 11.5 WINS +105
