Cleveland Browns Win Total Prediction
The Cleveland Browns went a disappointing 7-10 last year and have the third-best odds to win the AFC North in 2023. Can Cleveland improve enough to win double-digit games in the regular season for the first time since 2020?
Cleveland Browns Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 +110
Under 9.5 -130
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Cleveland Browns were a chaotic and disjointed club for most of the year. Last offseason, they traded several draft picks for former Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Browns then inked Watson to a mammoth 5-year $230 million fully guaranteed contract. The problem was that Watson was suspended for the first 11 games of last season due to off-field misconduct. That meant that Cleveland had to trot out career backup QB Jacoby Brissett for the first 11 games of last year. Brissett and the Browns went 4-7 in those games. The team went 7-10 on the season and finished last in a competitive AFC North division. In the games that Deshaun Watson did play, he looked pedestrian, posting a mediocre stat line of 1,102 yards passing, 7 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, a completion percentage of 58.2, a passer rating of 79.1, and a QBR of 38.3. The latter three figures were all career lows. How Watson plays will likely determine how well Cleveland fares in a difficult AFC in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: EDGE Jadeveon Clowney, RB Kareem Hunt, IDL Taven Bryan
Key Player Additions: IDL Dalvin Tomlinson, S Juan Thornhill, EDGE Za’Darius Smith (trade), WR Elijah Moore (trade), C Ethan Pocic, WR Cedric Tillman (3rd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Browns were aggressive in looking to improve the offense around QB Deshaun Watson. They drafted Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman in the 3rd round and Charlotte wide receiver Grant DuBose in the 7th round. Additionally, Cleveland drafted Ohio State tackle Dawand Jones in the fourth round and signed former Seattle center Ethan Pocic in free agency. Cleveland also added disgruntled slot receiver Elijah Moore in a trade with the Jets, ostensibly setting up Deshaun Watson for success in 2023. The loss of Kareem Hunt could hurt a bit as he had 678 scrimmage yards and 4 total touchdowns last year, but second-year running back Jerome Ford could offer value comparable to Hunt’s production last season. On paper, the Browns’ offense looks good, but it remains to be seen how well Deshaun Watson will ultimately perform.
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On defense, Cleveland replaced edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and interior defensive lineman Taven Bryan with EDGE Za’Darius Smith and IDL Dalvin Tomlinson. If healthy, Smith could prove to be a clear upgrade from Clowney. But Smith is now 30 years old and only one season removed from 2021 where he only played 1 game and missed the rest of the season for the Green Bay Packers. Swapping out Taven Bryan (6’5” 291 pounds) for Dalvin Tomlinson (6’3” 325 pounds) offers the Browns some more bulk up front, but the move makes less sense when you consider that Cleveland is transitioning to a 4-3 defense under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. The Browns do have elite edge rushers in Za’Darius Smith and Myles Garrett, but neither are great at playing the run. Cleveland allowed 135 rushing yards per game last season, a figure that ranked 25th in the league. Whether their front seven can stop the run consistently will weigh heavily on how the Browns fare this season.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Joe Woods, special teams coach Mike Priefer, quarterbacks coach Drew Petzing
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz, special teams coach Bubba Ventrone, senior offensive assistant Bill Musgrave, offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Alex Van Pelt
The Cleveland Browns coaching staff needed a shakeup after last year’s disappointing 7-10 campaign. Browns general manager Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski didn’t hold back as they fired defensive coordinator Joe Woods and special teams coordinator Mike Priefer. The firing of Woods was not a surprise as Cleveland’s defense ranked 28th in opponent yards per point and 20th in opponent points per play. Mike Priefer was the head coach of the Cleveland Browns for their only playoff win of the past 28 years in 2020 as head coach Kevin Stefanski missed that game with COVID. Priefer had been a holdover from Freddie Kitchens’ staff and was well-liked and well-respected within the city and the organization. The Browns’ problems in the kicking game likely sealed his fate as Cleveland kicker Cade York only converted 24 of 32 field goal attempts while having three of his kicks blocked. Drew Petzing held the title of Browns quarterbacks coach last season, but he left to become the Arizona Cardinals’ offensive coordinator. Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will add QB coach to his list of duties, a role that he’s held before with the Browns, the Bengals, the Buccaneers, and the Packers.
The most notable addition to the Browns coaching staff is defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz. Schwartz is the classic case of a great coordinator but a subpar head coach. As the head coach of the Detroit Lions, he went 29-51 over 5 seasons but did make the playoffs in 2011. This season will mark Schwartz’s 15th season as an NFL defensive coordinator and he’ll be holding that role for his fourth team. His most notable success came in 2018 when he was the architect of the Philadelphia Eagles’ Super Bowl LII-winning defense. In his stint in Philly, Schwartz’s defense improved slightly in year 1 and greatly in year 2. I see a similar pattern occurring here with the Browns. Schwartz runs a 4-3 defense, but Cleveland has been running a 3-4 defense for years. There will likely be a bit of an adjustment period in 2023, and the Browns may still struggle to consistently get stops as they adjust their roster and the players get used to a new system.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Cleveland Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson was one of the best quarterbacks in the league in 2020. That year he threw for 4,823 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while averaging a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt and accumulating a passer rating of 112.4. He wasn’t that guy last in his limited-game action last season, and I’d be surprised if he ever became that guy again. Watson missed all of 2021 and most of 2022 due to an informal and formal suspension. He and the Browns organization both took a lot of heat for the trade the team made and the contract that he got, and it looked like that pressure weighed on him last year. He might be good in 2023, but I’d bet against him being great.
When examining a team’s over/under total it helps to look at the year-over-year trend and the schedule. In the past 5 seasons, the Cleveland Browns have gone 7-8-1, 6-10, 11-5, 8-9, 7-10. The total for this year is 9.5. The AFC North might be one of the best divisions in football with the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers all likely to be competing for playoff spots. The first half of Cleveland’s schedule is brutal as they face the Ravens twice, the Bengals once, and have to go on the road against San Francisco and Seattle all within their first 9 games. What’s worse, the Browns have their bye week in Week 5, meaning they will be forced to play 13 straight weeks (with 7 of those games on the road) to finish out the season. This number opened at 8.5 and I liked the under then. It’s since grown to 9.5, which means I like the under even better. I can’t see Cleveland winning 10 games this season so I’m taking the under.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: CLEVELAND BROWNS UNDER 9.5 WINS -130
