Dallas Cowboys Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs and beat Tom Brady in Tampa Bay in the divisional round of the postseason. The Cowboys have the second-best odds to win the NFC East in 2023.
Can Dallas win enough games in the regular season to cash the over?
Dallas Cowboys Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10.5 +115
Under 10.5 -150
2022 Season Recap
2022 was Cowboys’ head coach Mike McCarthy’s third year with the club. He went 6-10 in 2020 then performed much better the next two seasons. In both 2021 and 2022, Dallas went 12-5 in the regular season and then lost in the playoffs to the San Francisco 49ers. The main difference between 2021 and last year was that Dallas didn’t win the division last season, but did win a playoff game. They won the division in 2021 but lost in the divisional round of that year’s playoffs. Mike McCarthy may have done one of his better coaching jobs last season as Cowboys backup QB Cooper Rush was pressed into starting duty and the team went 4-1 in his starts. Dak Prescott wasn’t great last year but did go 8-4 in his 12 starts. Prescott threw for 2,860 yards 23 touchdowns, and league-high 15 interceptions while averaging 7.3 yards per pass attempt. He posted the second-lowest passer rating of his career (91.1) and the third-lowest QBR of his career (57.9) in 2022. How Dak Prescott bounces back from last season’s middling performance will likely determine the ceiling of this Cowboys team in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: RG Connor McGovern, WR Noah Brown, TE Dalton Schultz, CB Anthony Brown, LB Anthony Barr, RB Ezekiel Elliot,
Key Player Additions: CB Stephon Gilmore (trade), WR Brandin Cooks (trade), RT Chuma Edoga, RB Ronald Jones II, DT Mazi Smith (1st round pick), TE Luke Schoonmaker (2nd round pick), LB DeMarvion Overshown (3rd round pick), RB Deuce Vaughn (6th round pick), WR Jalen Brooks (7th round pick)
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has never been one to sit on his hands during the offseason. He also serves as the team’s general manager, and he was busy this spring. On offense, Dallas loses their second and third leading receivers by yardage in Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown. The Cowboys also elected to cut former star running back Ezekiel Elliot, as he only averaged 3.9 yards per touch last season. That figure was the lowest mark in the league among players with 200 touches. To replace Noah Brown, Dallas traded for Brandin Cooks, who has posted 6 1,000 receiving yards seasons for four different teams in 9 career seasons. Dallas then drafted Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker in the second round to make up for the loss of Dalton Schultz in free agency. Dallas already had Ezekiel Elliot’s replacement on the roster in running back Tony Pollard. Pollard has long been the best back on the Cowboys and will finally get to shine in the feature role this season. Pollard averaged 5.9 yards per touch last season, which was the best mark in the league. Ezekiel Elliott’s exit might be addition by subtraction for the Dallas offense.
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The big addition to the Cowboys’ defense was former Indianapolis Colts cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Dallas acquired him this offseason in exchange for a fifth-round pick. Gilmore will replace last year’s #2 cornerback Anthony Brown while 2021 All-Pro Trevon Diggs holds down the #1 cornerback spot. Dallas did well to retain some of their top starters on defense as they re-signed safety Donovan Wilson, outside linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, and defensive end Dante Fowler. In the draft, Dallas made some nice moves as well, selecting Michigan defensive tackle Mazi Smith in the first round, Texas linebacker (and freak athlete) DeMarvion Overshown in the third round, and productive San Jose State defensive end Viliami Fehoko Jr. in the fourth round. Dallas’s defensive coordinator will have plenty of talented players to shuffle in and out of a defense that ranked in the top eight in opponent yards per play and opponent points per play in 2022.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier, assistant head coach Rob Davis, running backs coach Skip Peete, offensive line coach Joe Philbin, assistant defensive line coach Leon Lett
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer (promotion), quarterbacks coach Scott Tolzien (promotion), running game coordinator/running backs coach Jeff Blasko (promotion), offensive line coach Mike Solari, assistant defensive line coach Sharrif Floyd, game management/offensive assistant Ryan Feder (promotion)
The Dallas Cowboys have made 12 consecutive playoff appearances without reaching the conference championship game. That’s an NFL record. Their disappointing playoff results likely led to the large swath of coaching changes they made in the offseason. The big losses are offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier. Both men elected to join the Los Angeles Chargers coaching staff in the same positions. They’ve been replaced by offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer who had been a coaching analyst on last year’s Cowboys squad and quarterbacks coach Scott Tolizien, who was an offensive coaching assistant for Dallas last year. Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy will call plays for the first time in his tenure with the Dallas Cowboys, as the previous play-caller, Kellen Moore is gone now. McCarthy called plays for most of his stint as the head coach of the Green Bay Packers, so he’s familiar with what that responsibility entails. McCarthy has publicly stated that he would like to run the ball more, and that should fit well with the Cowboys’ personnel on offense.
On defense, Dallas loses senior defensive assistant and assistant defensive line coach Leon Lett. Those are some minor losses that shouldn’t affect Cowboys’ defensive coordinator Dan Quinn’s ability to put another stout defense on the field in 2023. This will be Quinn’s third year as the Dallas defensive coordinator as he won the AP’s Assistant Coach of the Year Award in 2021 and headed up the league’s sixth-best scoring defense in 2022.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The Cowboys play the AFC East and the NFC West this season, with their swing games coming against the Panthers, the Lions, and the Jets. All three of those games should be winnable, and only the Carolina game will be on the road. Dallas should be at least 4-2 as they head into their bye week in Week 7, meaning they will only have to win 7 out of their next 11 to hit the over. In that 11-game stretch, Dallas will get three consecutive games at home beginning with their Thanksgiving tilt with Washington on November 23rd. At the end of that stretch, Dallas could easily be 9-4 in a spot where they’d only have to win one more road game (assuming they can beat the Lions at home) to win at least 11 games.
For Dallas, roster talent hasn’t ever really been the problem over the past decade. Since 2012, the Cowboys have won the NFC East 4 times and have won at least 10 games 5 times. It helps to look at the last three years when trying to decide whether to bet the over or the under, and Dallas has gone 6-10, 12-5, and 12-5 in the past three seasons. For all of his faults, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has a career record of 155-97-2 in the regular season, which averages out to a .614 winning percentage. As Mike McCarthy takes on play-calling duties, the Cowboys’ offense should once again rank in the top ten in rushing yards per game. The loss of Ezekiel Elliot will simply mean that superior Dallas running back Tony Pollard can get more touches. The addition of star cornerback Stephon Gilmore on defense should make Dallas’ already great defense even tougher to move the ball against, and those two units should complement each other nicely this year. It might come down to the last week of the season, but I’m taking the over on the Dallas Cowboys in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: DALLAS COWBOYS OVER 10.5 WINS +115
