Denver Broncos Win Total Prediction
The Denver Broncos had an abysmal year in 2022 as they finished 5-12 and came in last in the AFC West. Denver has the third-best odds to win the division in 2023 and will be coached by former Saints headman Sean Payton.
Can Payton turn things around in Denver and lead the Broncos to a winning record for the first time since 2016?
Denver Broncos Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -110
Under 8.5 -110
2022 Season Recap
The Denver Broncos were an abject disaster in 2022. Before the season, they traded three players and four draft picks for the privilege of paying Russell Wilson $242.5 million over five years. Wilson proceeded to have one of the worst seasons of his career. He posted a stat line of 3,524 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, The former Seattle QB also posted career lows in passer rating (84.4), QBR (36.7), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (5.87). The Broncos scored the fewest points in the NFL last season on their way to a 5-12 record and last-place finish in the AFC West. From the first game of the season, Broncos coach Nathaniel Hackett appeared overmatched as a head coach, and he didn’t even make it to the end of the year as he was fired after beginning the season 4-11. The Broncos’ defense was solid, as they ranked sixth in opponent yards per play and fourth in opponent yards per pass attempt. If Sean Payton can fix Russell Wilson and Denver’s defense can continue to produce, the Broncos have a shot at a winning record in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: IDL Dre’Mont Jones, G Dalton Risner, G Billy Turner, T Cameron Fleming
Key Player Additions: T Mike McGlinchey, G Ben Powers, RB Samaji Perine, EDGE Frank Clark, WR Marvin Mims (2nd round pick), LB Drew Sanders (3rd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Denver Broncos are officially all-in on making Russell Wilson’s life easier. They replaced offensive linemen Billy Turner and Cameron Fleming with star free agents Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. When he was with Seattle, Russell Wilson used his legs to compensate for an often mediocre offensive line. Because Wilson is older now and doesn’t run as much, Denver opted to invest in some big bodies up front to protect him. It remains to be seen if that move will ultimately pay off. Denver also added former Cincinnati running back Samaji Perine in free agency, and he may have a larger role than expected with Broncos’ starting RB Javonte Williams working his way back from a severe knee injury he suffered in October of last year.
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On defense, Denver added former Kansas City edge rusher Frank Clark on a 1-year $5.5 million deal after the Chiefs cut him. The Broncos also added former Cardinals DE Zach Allen in free agency and Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders through the draft. Allen should be a day-one starter while Clark and Sanders figure to take on backup roles to bolster what was already a solid defense last season. The Broncos also added a few pieces to their secondary via the 2023 NFL Draft. Denver selected Iowa cornerback Riley Moss in the 3rd round and Boise State safety JL Skinner in the 6th round. Both players should slide into reserve roles, with Moss having the better chance to earn a starting spot.
Key Coaching Departures: Head coach Nathaniel Hackett, offensive coordinator Justin Outten, defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, special teams coordinator Dwayne Stukes
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Sean Payton, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica
The Broncos finished 27th in the NFL with an average scoring margin of -4.2 points per game last season. They elected to completely overhaul their coaching staff as they replaced Nathaniel Hackett with Sean Payton and allowed him to pick his coordinators. The deal for Sean Payton is a massive gamble. According to Peter King, Payton’s 5-year contract is “in the neighborhood” of $18 million per year, making the former Super Bowl winner’s salary the second highest in all of American sports. The Broncos’ ownership group is betting heavily on Sean Payton and his new staff, and it’s easy to see why.
Payton is 152-89 as an NFL head coach, which is good for a winning percentage of .631. That’s a better winning percentage than Hall of Fame coaches Paul Brown, Bill Cowher, Bill Walsh, and Tom Landry. Payton brings in his former quarterbacks coach Joe Lombardi as his offensive coordinator. The two have experience working with short quarterbacks as 6’0” Drew Brees threw for over 68,000 yards as a member of the Saints from 2006 to 2020. New Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has held that position for 7 years, including a lengthy stint with the Cardinals from 2019-2022. Joseph went 11-21 in two seasons as the Broncos head coach but returns to the club in a role he is probably more suited to with a chance to redeem himself. As bad as the Broncos were last season, it seems a bit reductive to blame it all on the inexperience of head coach Nathaniel Hackett and his staff. Sean Payton is obviously a tremendous upgrade and the coordinators he hired seem primed to make a positive impact as well. How Sean Payton ultimately handles Russell Wilson will determine whether the Broncos succeed as a team and an organization going forward.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Since winning the Super Bowl in 2015, the Denver Broncos have gone 9-7, 5-11, 6-10, 7-9, 5-11, 7-10, and 5-12. The organization hasn’t been a paragon of consistency. Many people point to the Broncos’ lack of a quarterback for their struggles. There’s a lot of merit to that. But trading the farm for an aging Russell Wilson and then handing him an obscene 5-year $245 million contract is a move that can cripple a franchise if it goes poorly. If the early results are any indication, the move will eventually be a disaster.
The problem with paying any player that much money is that the NFL is a hard-capped league. Each team has a certain team salary figure that they can’t exceed for any reason. When highly-paid players underperform (especially at the QB position) it severely limits the team’s roster flexibility and curtails their ability to bring in good players to try to improve the team. Denver signed what Pro Football Focus tabbed the best two free agent offensive linemen in the 2023 class in T Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers. The Broncos signed a Super Bowl-winning head coach who is likely to end up in Canton someday. But none of it matters if Russell Wilson can’t get back to playing at an elite level. Denver’s ownership likely thought that Payton worked well with Drew Brees, so he could remedy what was plaguing Russell Wilson. I’m not so sure. Wilson has never been as accurate as Drew Brees, and because Wilson is older, he doesn’t break the pocket or run as much anymore. Those two QBs are less similar than they seem.
There’s also the fact that Denver plays in the AFC West, meaning they will be lucky to finish 2-4 in the division. When it comes to the Broncos’ non-divisional games, they have to go on the road to face the Dolphins, Bears, Bills, and Lions. Denver does get the Jets, Packers, Browns, and Vikings at home, but those games could prove challenging for a team that lost 7 of their last 9 games after their bye week in 2022. I think that Russell Wilson is too far gone for even Sean Payton to fix, which is why I’ll be taking the under for the Broncos’ season win total in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: DENVER BRONCOS UNDER 8.5 WINS -110
