Detroit Lions Win Total Prediction
The Detroit Lions recorded their first winning season since 2017 last year. Detroit finished the season 9-8 but narrowly missed out on a spot in the NFC playoffs.
Can the Lions improve upon their win total from last season and win 10 games or more in 2023?
Detroit Lions Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -145
Under 9.5 +120
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Detroit Lions were one of a few teams to look dismal in the first half of the season and elite in the second half. The Lions opened the year 1-6, then went a sizzling 8-2 the rest of the season to finish 9-8. They recorded a gutsy victory when they beat the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau in the last game of the regular season to prevent the Packers from making the postseason. Detroit’s offense was surprisingly potent last year as they ranked fifth in the NFL in points scored per game (26.6). Lions’ QB Jared Goff had one of his better seasons as a pro in 2022 as he threw for 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt and recording a passer rating of 99.3. Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown emerged as a legitimate #1 target in 2022 as he posted 106 catches for 1,161 yards and 6 touchdowns. Detroit’s defense was their Achilles’ heel all last season as they gave up 25.1 points per game, a figure that ranked 28th in the league. Detroit’s season hinges on their offense being great again and their defense showing marked improvement from last year. If the Lions regress in either category, it could be a long season in Detroit.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR D.J. Chark, RB Jamaal Williams, S DeShon Elliott, CB Mike Hughes, CB Jeff Okudah, C Evan Brown, RB D’Andre Swift (trade), IDL Austin Bryant
Key Player Additions: CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, RB David Montgomery, CB Emmanuel Moseley, WR Marvin Jones Jr., IOL Graham Glasgow, T Germain Ifedi, RB Jahmyr Gibbs (1st round pick), LB Jack Campbell (1st round pick), TE Sam LaPorta (2nd round pick), S Brian Branch (2nd round pick)
Detroit elected to overhaul their offensive backfield this season. They let goal line specialist Jamaal Williams leave for New Orleans in free agency and traded D’Andre Swift to Philadelphia. Williams had a good year last year as he posted 1,066 rushing yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 17. Swift was the more explosive back between him and Williams, and his yards per carry average (5.5) illustrated that fact. In their place, the Lions brought in former Bears running back David Montgomery in free agency and drafted former Georgia Tech and Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Montgomery is more of a workhouse grind-it-out type back as he averaged 4.0 yards per carry on 201 totes last season. Gibbs figures to be more of a home run hitter as he averaged 6.1 yards per carry and 10.1 yards per catch as a member of the Crimson Tide last year. It’s difficult to know if the Lions’ new backfield will produce as well as the old one.
The Lions were 30th in the NFL in opponent passing yards per game last season as they allowed 245.8 yards per contest. They addressed that by signing defensive backs Cameron Sutton, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Emmanuel Moseley in free agency and selecting Alabama safety Brian Branch in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. All three of the new free-agent DBs are slated to start, which could make for an adjustment period in the first half of the season. Detroit was 17th in sacks per game last season with 2.3 and they will likely need to improve that number to take some of the pressure off of their defensive backfield in 2023.
Bet on NFL Futures Odds from Any State! $750 bonus for All New Players!
Key Coaching Departures: Assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley, defensive line coach Todd Walsh, senior offensive assistant John Morton
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Assistant head coach/running backs coach Scottie Montgomery, tight end coach Steve Heiden, senior offensive assistant Jim Hostler, defensive line coach John Scott Jr., cornerbacks coach Dre Bly, senior defensive assistant John Fox
The most significant changes to the Lions’ coaching staff were the departures of assistant head coach/running backs coach Duce Staley and defensive line coach Todd Walsh. Both men left Detroit to join Panthers head coach Frank Reich’s staff in Carolina. The Lions had one of the best 1-2 backfield punches in the league last season in Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift, so it was curious that Detroit elected to let Staley sign with another club. The Lions’ defensive line was less than a strength last season as the team allowed 146.5 rushing yards per game; a figure that ranked 29th in the NFL. It’s more understandable that the Lions let former defensive line coach Todd Walsh take the same position in another organization as they try to improve that unit’s performance in 2023.
Detroit head coach Dan Campbell tabbed former Duke wide receiver and former East Carolina head coach Scottie Montgomery to be the team’s assistant head coach/running backs coach in 2023. Montgomery has only been an NFL running backs coach for two seasons with Indianapolis prior to this year, so his role on the staff may be open to question if that group struggles early. Detroit made a more traditional hire as they tabbed John Scott Jr. as their new defensive line coach. Scott has held that position for nine seasons at the FBS level in college football. He served as the defensive line coach for Georgia Southern, Texas Tech, Arkansas, South Carolina, and Penn State. Scott was also the assistant defensive line coach for the New York Jets in 2016. He’ll have his work cut out for him in 2023 because outside of Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit’s defensive line is short on both talent and experience.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
This offseason, Detroit has become the hot pick to win the NFC North division in 2023. According to BetMGM.com, the Lions have the best odds to win the division at +130, followed by Minnesota at +280 and the Bears and Packers both bringing up the rear at +400. I understand why everyone is on the Lions because they finished the season 8-2 last year, but I’d pump the brakes before automatically handing them the division crown and a playoff berth in 2023.
The Lions have the 16th-easiest schedule in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, placing them right in the middle of the pack. Detroit plays the AFC West and the NFC South for their non-division matchups with their swing games coming on the road against Baltimore, home against Seattle, and on the road against Dallas. An odd scheduling quirk means that the Lions will play 5 of their 6 division games after their bye in Week 9. This presents a problem because young teams like the Bears and Packers could start to hit their stride by then and see their clubs playing much better in Week 12 than in Week 4. There is virtually no way that Detroit goes 8-2 in the final 10 games of the year in 2023, but the expectations will be there. Lions head coach Dan Campbell went 3-13-1 in his first season in 2021 and went 9-8 in his second season last year. Many seem to think that progress is linear in the NFL and you can just pencil the Lions in for 11 or 12 wins this season. Right? I don’t see it. I like that the total is 9.5 wins, meaning that Detroit could match their record from last year and you could still win this bet. I also like that the odds are favorable at +120. I think it’s more likely that Detroit underachieves this season than wins the division. And that’s why I’m taking the under on 9.5 wins for the Lions in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: DETROIT LIONS UNDER 9.5 WINS +120
