Green Bay Packers Win Total Prediction
The Green Bay Packers had a frustrating season in 2022. They failed to finish with a winning record for the first time since 2018 and the team missed the playoffs.
Now Aaron Rodgers is gone. Can the Packers equal their win total of 8 last season without their Hall of Fame quarterback?
Green Bay Packers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 7.5 -120
Under 7.5 +100
2022 Season Recap
It would be hard to classify the 2022 season as anything other than a disappointment for the Green Bay Packers. They finished the season 8-9 and had a horrific mid-season stretch where they lost 7 of 8 contests. Even with all that, the Packers had a chance to make the playoffs on the last day of the regular season. All they had to do was beat the Detroit Lions at home. They couldn’t do it. Green Bay missed the playoffs, and Aaron Rodgers’ tenure was through in Green Bay. Rodgers wasn’t great in 2022 as he suffered a broken thumb in Week 5 and posted a so-so season-long stat line of 3,695 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 6.8 yards per attempt. He posted a lackluster passer rating of 91.1. Rodgers looked ordinary, and only time will tell if the injury was to blame for his second-rate performance.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Aaron Rodgers, S Adrion Amos, WR Allen Lazard, IDL Jarran Reed, IDL Dean Lowry, WR Randall Cobb, LB Krys Barnes, TE Robert Tonyan, TE Marcedes Lewis, K Mason Crosby
Key Player Additions: S Tarvarius Moore, S Jonathan Owens, EDGE Lukas Van Ness (1st round pick), TE Luke Musgrave (2nd round pick), WR Jayden Reed (2nd round pick), TE Tucker Kraft (3rd round pick), EDGE Colby Wooden (4th round pick), K Anders Carlson (6th round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The 2023 Green Bay Packers offense is going to look a lot different than it did in 2022. For starters, fourth-year quarterback and former 2020 first-round pick Jordan Love will get his chance to start and be the main guy for the Packers in 2023. Love didn’t play his first season, looked overmatched in one start in 2021, then looked much sharper in relief duty last season. He won’t have to worry about making mistakes and the job is likely safely his for this season and the next. He won’t have some of the weapons that Aaron Rodgers had like wide receivers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard as well as tight ends Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis. Love will be throwing to younger players like rookie tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft and second-year wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. There will likely be an adjustment period for Love and the younger players as they hit their stride as full-time NFL starters on a roster void of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
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The Packers lost three key players on defense in Adrian Amos, Jarran Reed, and Dean Lowry, but that might not be a bad thing. Green Bay’s defense was 28th last season in opponent yards per play (5.8), and 25th in opponent points per play (0.374). Those three will be replaced by a few younger/cheaper players in safety Rudy Ford, nose tackle TJ Slaton, and defensive end Devante Wyatt. How Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry manages their development may determine whether he keeps his job beyond 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive backs coach/passing game coordinator Jerry Gray,
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Assistant head coach/special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia (promotion), passing game coordinator (defense) Greg Williams, defensive backs coach Ryan Downard (promotion)
The lone notable Green Bay coaching departure was defensive backs coach/passing game coordinator Jerry Gray. Gray had done some valuable work with the Packers young secondary, and cornerback Rasul Douglas specifically praised Gray when he was having his breakout season in 2021. With that said, the Packers’ secondary has been a weak link for years, and new defensive backs coach Greg Williams will have to try to coax a talented unit into playing better than they did last season.
Green Bay promoted special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia to assistant head coach which was likely a move to prevent him from leaving the organization. Bisaccia elevated the Packers’ special teams from 32nd in the league in 2021 to 22nd in the league last season. The most notable improvement came from the Packers’ kickoff return team. Star kick returner Keisean Nixon made the All-Pro team as a kickoff returner while averaging 28.8 yards per kickoff return. Nixon was a player whom Bisaccia had known and coached in his days with the Raiders.
The most notable coaching change for Green Bay was one that wasn’t made. Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry will remain in that position for the 2023 season despite fans and many outside the organization clamoring for his ouster. Green Bay was 24th in opponent punts per offensive score and 24th in opponent first downs per play last season. The Packers’ defense was maddeningly inconsistent last year. They frequently gave up big plays and failed to get critical stops at crucial moments. If the defense is poor again this season, keeping Joe Barry onboard as the defensive coordinator heading into 2024 will be nearly impossible.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
In Aaron Rodgers’ first year as the starter, the Green Bay Packers went 6-10. Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions on 7.5 yards per attempt that season. He posted a passer rating of 93.8 and a QBR of 62.9. It would seem likely that Green Bay may be in for a similar year with Jordan Love’s first chance to be the starter for the Packers.
As far as the schedule goes, the Packers play the AFC West and the NFC South this season. Green Bay gets 4 of their first 6 games on the road and will play 3 of their last 5 away from Lambeau Field. The Packers also get their bye in Week 6, meaning that they’ll have to play 12 straight weeks to finish out the season. Not exactly ideal. The focus should be on Packers head coach Matt LaFleur looking to further the development of quarterback Jordan Love. This being Love’s first season starting, he’s inevitably going to make some mistakes. It’s imperative that he be allowed to play through those mistakes so that he can learn and get better. Aaron Rodgers made the playoffs in his second year starting and won the Super Bowl in his third year as the starter. I’m not saying that’s going to happen with Jordan Love, but I am saying that it could be a year or two before Love is playing at an elite level consistently. It will be close, but I think Green Bay loses at least one more game than they did last season and finishes 7-10 or worse.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: GREEN BAY PACKERS UNDER 7.5 WINS +100
