Houston Texans Win Total Prediction
The Houston Texans had an abysmal season last year. Houston went 3-13-1 and foolishly won the last game of the season, costing them the #1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Can the Texans vastly improve their win total and prevent a basement finish in 2023?
Houston Texans Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 +110
Under 6.5 -135
2022 Season Recap
Houston was not a good football team last year. They ranked 29th in the NFL in points per play margin and 22nd in yards per point margin. Their head coach was Lovie Smith, and he was let go at the end of the year. The Texans were quarterbacked by Davis Mills in 2022. Mills threw for 3,118 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 15 interceptions in 15 games. His passer rating was a subpar 78.8 and his yards per pass attempt was a paltry 6.5. Oddly, the Texans actually had the third-fewest penalty yards per game last season, and they ranked in a tie for 15th when it came to average turnover margin per game. The problem was the offense. The Texans ranked dead last in yards per play with 4.7. The 2023 Houston Texans may barely resemble the club that only won three games in 2023, but I’m not so sure that will translate to several more wins.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: EDGE Obannia Okoronkwo, EDGE Rasheen Green, RG A.J. Cann, S Jonathan Owens, WR Brandin Cooks (trade), WR Phillip Dorsett, TE Jordan Akins
Key Player Additions: TE Dalton Schultz, S Jimmie Ward, RG Shaq Mason (trade), IDL Sheldon Rankins, CB Shaquill Griffin, LB Denzel Perryman, RB Devin Singletary, WR Robert Woods, QB C.J. Stroud (1st round pick), EDGE Will Anderson (1st round pick), C Juice Scruggs (2nd round pick), WR Nathaniel Dell (3rd round pick)
Houston Texans general manager Nick Caserio was extremely busy this offseason. He added several players through free agency and trades and then selected two of the top three overall players in the 2023 NFL Draft. The offense will likely start former Ohio State Buckeye C.J. Stroud at QB, whom the Texans selected with the number two overall pick in the draft. The Texans also added former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz and former Bills running back Devin Singletary in free agency. If that wasn’t enough, Houston also traded for former Buccaneers right guard Shaq Mason. Houston also added wide receivers Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson in the draft in addition to signing former Titans wide receiver Robert Woods. The pieces for a serviceable offense are in place, but it could likely take a year or two for the group to gel given new quarterback C.J. Stroud’s lack of NFL experience.
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On defense, the biggest additions for the Texans came at edge rusher and safety. After selecting C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick in the draft, the Texans boldly traded back up to the #3 spot and selected otherworldly Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson with that pick. Anderson was an absolute wrecking ball throughout his college career as he racked up 34.5 sacks and a staggering 58.5 tackles for loss over his three years with the Crimson Tide. Anderson could eventually develop into one of the best players at his position in the NFL, but again it may take some time for him to get used to the speed and skill of NFL tackles. At safety, the Texans signed former 49ers safety Jimmie Ward to strengthen a secondary that ranked 23rd in opponent yards per pass attempt last season. Ward will be joined in the starting lineup on defense by several new players aside from Anderson. Former Raiders linebacker Denzel Perryman and former Jets interior defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins will both slide right into the starting lineup with the potential to contribute right away. But many members of Houston’s coaching staff will be in new roles this season, potentially putting a ceiling on how well the offense and defense will perform in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Head coach Lovie Smith, offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, offensive line coach George Warhop, offensive assistant/quarterbacks coach Ted White, assistant defensive line coach Kenyon Jackson, safeties coach Joe Danna, linebackers coach Miles Smith, defensive assistant/nickels Ilir Emini, defensive assistant Dele Harding
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Demeco Ryans, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson, defensive coordinator Matt Burke, offensive line coach Chris Strausser, tight ends coach Jake Moreland, assistant head coach/running backs coach Danny Barrett (promotion), defensive backs coach Dino Vasso (promotion), assistant defensive line coach Rod Wright, safeties coach Stephen Adegoke, linebackers coach Chris Kiffin, defensive assistant Ryan Milus, senior offensive assistant Bill Lazor
The Texans elected to basically clean house after the 3-13-1 debacle that was their 2022 season. Lovie Smith won the final game of the regular season knowing he was about to be fired seemingly to shaft the Texans out of the #1 overall pick. He’s replaced by former 49ers defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans who hasn’t been a head coach at any level before. Ryans will call the plays on defense, which is a duty he held in San Francisco for multiple years before this season. Lovie Smith didn’t have a defensive coordinator last year, but Ryans elected to hire former Cardinals defensive line coach Matt Burke to be his defensive coordinator for the 2023 campaign. Burke was the Dolphins’ defensive coordinator in 2017 and 2018. Curiously Houston allowed safeties coach Joe Danna to leave and take the same position with Buffalo while electing to retain cornerbacks coach Dino Vasso. The Texans elevated Vasso to defensive backs coach this season. If all that wasn’t enough change, Houston also brought on Chris Kiffin as the new linebackers coach in place of Miles Smith who held that position in 2022. With all the new faces on the defensive coaching staff, it seems like the Texans would be hard-pressed to play well with any sort of consistency on that side of the ball in 2023.
Houston hired former 49ers passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik to be the offensive coordinator, which is a position he has yet to hold in his career. The new quarterbacks coach is Jerrod Johnson, and his only relevant experience is as an assistant quarterbacks coach for the Vikings last season. Hiring two coaches who have never held their current position to aid in the development of a first-round rookie quarterback in C.J. Stroud is a curious decision, and I’m skeptical that things are going to work out for Ryans, Slowik, Johnson, and Stroud in Year 1 in Houston.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The Houston Texans play in the AFC South meaning they will face the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans all twice in 2023. For their cross-divisional matchups, Houston will face the AFC North and the NFC South with one of their swing games coming at home against the Cardinals in Week 11. The Texans have gone 4-12, 4-13, and 3-13-1 over the past three seasons. They’ve had 4 different coaches in that span if you count Romeo Crennel’s interim stint in the last three-quarters of 2020. This was not a talented roster last season, and their additions may take a year or two to eventually pay off. When you look at the coaching inexperience, it doesn’t bode well for a team that starts a lot of young players.
Then there’s the quarterback. C.J. Stroud was terrific for Ohio State last season as he threw for 3,688 yards, 41 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. He has the stature (6’3” 215 pounds), temperament, and raw physical talent to eventually be a successful NFL quarterback. But there might be a reason there hasn’t been a great NFL quarterback from Ohio State in a long time. Stroud was throwing to five-star wide receivers who were torching slower Big Ten defensive backs, and he was running a spread offense that had those skilled receivers often running wide open. Stroud also played behind one of the better offensive lines in the country during his time in Columbus. How will he adjust when his receivers aren’t as open and can’t get as much separation? How will he fare under near-constant pressure? The Texans essentially ruined David Carr’s career because they couldn’t protect him, and they ranked 13th in opponent’s sacks per game last year. I think there will be considerable growing pains and legitimate struggles for C.J. Stroud, the Texans, and their new coaching staff in 2023, which is why I’m taking the under.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: HOUSTON TEXANS UNDER 6.5 WINS -135
