Indianapolis Colts Win Total Prediction
The Indianapolis Colts were quite bad last year. Indianapolis finished the season 4-12-1, which was the fourth-worst record in the NFL.
Can the Colts bounce back and significantly improve upon their win total from last season and win 7 games or more in 2023?
Indianapolis Colts Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 -120
Under 6.5 +100
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 season for the Indianapolis Colts was a downright tire fire. They went 4-12-1, fired their head coach Frank Reich in the middle of the year, then went 1-7 under interim head coach Jeff Saturday who had never been a head coach in the NFL before. The numbers weren’t encouraging as the Colts ranked last in average scoring margin per game (-8.1), last in yards per point margin (-5.0), and last in points per play margin (-0.129). They were quarterbacked by an aging and washed-up Matt Ryan who took 38 sacks across only 12 games. Indianapolis quarterbacks Sam Ehlinger and Nick Foles were sacked a combined 22 times in 7 games played as well. As a team, the Colts ranked 28th in the NFL in quarterback sack percentage at 9.04%. Indianapolis might not have had the worst record in the NFL last season, but you could make the case they were one of the league’s worst teams. Several changes were made in the offseason that could have things looking up for Indy in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Matt Ryan, EDGE Yannick Ngakoue, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Rodney McLeod, LB Bobby Okereke, WR Parris Campbell, LT Matt Pryor, QB Nick Foles
Key Player Additions: WR/TE Pharaoh Brown, IDL Taven Bryan, EDGE Samson Ebukam, QB Gardner Minshew, WR Isaiah McKenzie, P Matt Gay, RB Kenyan Drake, QB Anthony Richardson (1st round pick), CB Julius Brents (2nd round pick), WR Josh Downs (3rd round pick), T Blake Freeland (4th round pick), RB Evan Hull (5th round pick)
The big story for Indianapolis this offseason is the contract status of Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor. Taylor is one of the best running backs in the NFL and his 2021 season (1,811 rushing yards, 18 rushing touchdowns, 360 receiving yards, and 2 receiving touchdowns) cemented his status as one of the game’s premier players at his position. But Taylor is heading into the last year of his rookie contract and he wants an extension. Colts owner Jim Irsay has apparently met with Taylor, but Taylor has since requested a trade. Taylor has refused to report to Colts training camp and is in the midst of a holdout as of this writing. There’s no telling how long this could go on, but it’s certainly a situation worth monitoring. The Colts just signed veteran running back Kenyan Drake after drafting Northwestern running back Evan Hull in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Indianapolis also received Buffalo’s Zach Moss in a trade, but he recently broke his arm this summer and will likely be out for several weeks. Running backs have become devalued lately in the NFL and it appears that Colts RB Jonathan Taylor may be feeling the brunt of that fact now.
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Irrespective of the Taylor situation, Indy made some nice additions on offense, specifically at the quarterback position. The Colts drafted Florida freak athlete Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and signed one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks in Gardner Minshew in free agency. I’m bullish on the Colts’ offense being noticeably better in 2023 due to better quarterback play and the addition of some fast wide receivers in Isaiah McKenzie and North Carolina rookie third-rounder Josh Downs. Those players should make a sizable impact on the Colts’ offense, and the coaching changes should cause a performance bump as well.
On defense, Indianapolis got younger and cheaper as they let edge rusher Yannick Ngakoue leave in free agency and traded cornerback Stephon Gilmore to the Cowboys for a fifth-round pick. In their stead, Indy signed former 49ers edge rusher Samson Ebukam and drafted Kansas State corner Julius Brents in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Ebukam has recorded at least 4.5 sacks and 31 total tackles in each of the past four seasons and he’s registered at least 10 quarterback hits in three of the last four seasons. Brents made first-team All-Big-12 last season as he recorded 4 interceptions, 3.5 tackles for loss and 4 passes defended for the Wildcats in 2022. His big frame (6’3” 200 pounds) should allow him to match up well with NFL receivers from day one of training camp as the starter at left cornerback.
Key Coaching Departures: Interim head coach Jeff Saturday, interim offensive coordinator Parks Frazier, quarterbacks coach Scott Milanovich, running backs coach Scottie Montgomery, special teams coordinator Raymond Ventrone, tight ends coach Kevin Mawae, offensive line coach Chris Strausser, senior defensive assistant John Fox
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Head coach Shane Steichen, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, quarterbacks coach Cam Turner, offensive line coach Tony Sparano Jr., special teams coordinator Brian Mason, tight ends coach Tom Manning, running backs coach Deandre Smith, defensive assistant Payton McCollum
The Colts having a terrible 2022 season meant that there would be many changes on the sidelines for 2023. The biggest one was the hiring of former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to be the new head coach. Steichen headed up a dynamic Eagles offense last season that ranked second in points per play and second in yards per point. He adds Jim Bob Cooter as his offensive coordinator and Cam Turner as his quarterbacks coach. Cooter has 13 years of NFL coaching experience, including a previous stint as a Colts offensive assistant from 2009 to 2011. Cam Turner is the son of former FIU coach Ron Turner, the nephew of former NFL coach Norv Turner, and the cousin of Scott Turner, the current offensive coordinator of the Washington Commanders. Those three should bring a nice blend of youth and experience to the table. Steichen is 38 years old, Turner is 36 years old and Cooter is 39 years old. More NFL teams are looking for younger coaches and coordinators after the success of the Los Angeles Rams Sean McVay, and if the trio mentioned above can get Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson to harness some of his immense physical talents, Indianapolis could be one of the pleasant surprises of the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The Colts play in a relatively weak division in the AFC South. They should have a chance to win each division game. For their non-divisional opponents, Indianapolis plays the AFC North and the NFC South, with their 17th game coming against the NFC West. The Colts have the fourth-easiest schedule in the league according to Pro Football Network and their late bye week (Week 11) could prime them for a nice late-season run. There’s also the matter of Anthony Richardson and how he compares to another dynamic first-round rookie quarterback of the past decade.
The obvious Anthony Richardson comparison to me is Cam Newton. In Newton’s rookie year in 2011, he threw for 4,051 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions while adding 706 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns. Newton won the AP Offensive Rookie of the Year Award that season but did only go 6-10. Newton’s coaches weren’t as good as the coaches Richardson should have with Indianapolis this season. Newton also went 4-2 in the last 6 games of the season as he acquired more game experience and felt more comfortable in the offense. All the reports out of Indianapolis are positive for Anthony Richardson with multiple coaches praising his ability to grasp the offense. Anthony Richardson is not exactly the same as Cam Newton obviously as the latter won a Heisman Trophy and a national title in college, but their physical profiles are remarkably similar. I’m buying the Anthony Richardson hype and think that he’ll play well enough to elevate the Colts regardless of what ends up happening with running back Jonathan Taylor. It’s a new dawn in Indianapolis, and I think they take some valuable steps on the road to rebuilding in 2023. I’ll take the Colts over 6.5 wins.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS OVER 6.5 WINS -120
