Jacksonville Jaguars Win Total Prediction
The Jacksonville Jaguars had a successful season in 2022. They finished over .500 for the first time since 2017 and won the AFC South to boot.
The team flourished under first-year head coach Doug Pederson but may have a tougher go of things in 2023. Will Jacksonville repeat as AFC South champs and post their first 10-win season since 2017?
Jacksonville Jaguars Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -150
Under 9.5 +125
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars really began to hit their stride after their bye week in Week 11. Prior to that, Jacksonville was 3-7. After their bye week, they went 6-1 to finish out the regular season. The Jaguars then beat the Chargers in a thrilling come-from-behind home playoff affair by a score of 31-30. The Jags then narrowly lost a close game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road in the divisional round. For the Jaguars, quarterback Trevor Lawrence seemed to have finally broken out as he threw for 4,113 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 7 yards per pass attempt. He posted a passer rating of 95.2 and a QBR of 54.5 while adding 291 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs on the ground. Like the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ strong 2022 finish has ramped up expectations for 2023. Whether they’ll live up to the hype is something we’ll dig into below.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR Marvin Jones, EDGE Dawuane Smoot, T Jawaan Taylor, CB Shaquill Griffin, EDGE, Arden Key, K Riley Patterson
Key Player Additions: K Brandon McManus, T Josh Wells, RB D’Ernest Johnson, IDL Michael Dogbe, G Chandler Brewer, T Anton Harrison (1st round pick), RB Tank Bigsby (3rd round pick), TE Brenton Strange (2nd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The two biggest losses for the Jaguars’ offense were tackle Jawaan Taylor and wide receiver Marvin Jones. Taylor was the team’s starting right tackle last season and played 97.7% of the team’s snaps. He was an elite pass blocker but a subpar run blocker, which is likely why Jacksonville let him walk. He will be replaced by former Oklahoma tackle and first-round draft pick Anton Harrison. Asking a 21-year-old rookie to step in and play one of the most difficult positions on the field may lead to some growing pains. Jacksonville let wideout Marvin Jones go back to Detroit but compensated for that by re-signing dynamic tight end Evan Engram. Engram had 766 receiving yards and caught 4 touchdowns last season and he figures to be a main cog of the Jaguars’ offense again in 2023. The Jaguars added tackle Josh Wells and running back D’Ernest Johnson in free agency, suggesting that they may look to continue last year’s successful rushing attack as they ranked fifth in the NFL with 4.9 yards per rushing attempt in 2022.
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On defense, Jacksonville opted to add depth rather than overhaul a unit that was slightly above average last season. The Jaguars’ defense ranked 11th in opponent points per play and 15th in opponent yards per play in 2022. Jacksonville was also eighth in opponent yards per point, meaning that they were largely successful in limiting big plays last season. Jacksonville edge rushers Dawuane Smoot and Arden Key combined for 9.5 sacks last season, and they’ll both be with new clubs in 2023. To replace that production, Jacksonville drafted two middle-round edge rushers: Oklahoma State’s Tyler Lacy and Louisville’s Yasir Abdullah. Lacy might be closer to playing immediately, but Abdullah may have the higher upside. Despite those facts, it’s safe to assume that Jacksonville’s pass rush which was 28th in sack percentage in 2022 might suffer a bit of a dip this season. The loss of cornerback Shaquill Griffin shouldn’t matter that much as Jacksonville drafted Rutgers corner Christian Braswell to take his place. Braswell recorded 3 interceptions in 12 games for the Scarlet Knights last season.
Key Coaching Departures: Passing game coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, wide receivers coach Chris Jackson
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Passing game coordinator Nick Holz, wide receivers coach Chad Hall
Due to Jacksonville’s success last season, they didn’t make many coaching changes. They likely didn’t want to lose passing game coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, but he was offered the offensive coordinator job with the Indianapolis Colts and took it. He’ll be one of the key members of new Colts coach Shane Steichen’s staff. Jacksonville had three wide receivers (Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones Jr.) who all recorded over 500 receiving yards last season. Former Jags receivers coach Chris Jackson likely could have had something to do with that. He left to become the passing game coordinator and wide receivers coach at the University of Texas. In place of Cooter and Jackson, the Jaguars have brought in passing game coordinator Nick Holz and wide receivers coach Chad Hall.
Holz was the offensive coordinator for the University of Nevada-Las Vegas (UNLV) last season while Chad Hall was the wide receivers coach for the Buffalo Bills from 2019 to 2022. I think Jacksonville may miss Jim Bob Cooter, but could wind up being fine with the coaching changes. There are a few reasons for this. The first point is that Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor are both still on the staff. Pederson calls the plays and will likely continue to do so going forward. There’s also the fact that the Buffalo Bills wide receivers (the unit that Chad Hall previously coached) were one of the better position groups in the league the past few years with Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie all topping 400 receiving yards last year. There’s also the fact that new passing game coordinator Nick Holz spent 10 years with the Raiders in various roles on the offensive side of the ball before heading up the UNLV offense last season. Jacksonville will carry over about as much continuity as a playoff team can have heading into the 2023 NFL season.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Progress in the NFL is rarely linear. If the Jaguars win 10 games or more this season, that will mark the fourth year in a row that they’ve increased their win total. In the past three seasons, Jacksonville has gone 1-15, 3-14, and 9-8. Consistently winning more games each year is extremely difficult in the NFL due to salary cap limitations and the exodus of coaches leaving as better opportunities come along. I’m skeptical that Jacksonville, who plays the AFC North and the NFC South this year, can win double-digit games for the first time since 2017.
The schedule is a big factor as to why I’m bearish on the Jaguars in 2023. In October, Jacksonville will play two straight games in London. The Jags will face the Atlanta Falcons on October 1st and the Buffalo Bills on October 8th. This means that the Jaguars will be spending two straight weeks in London. Because those games count as “home” games it also means that Jacksonville will only get 7 games in Jacksonville in 2023. I also believe that the Falcons and Bills will be good this year, so there’s a chance the Jaguars go all the way to London, stay there for two weeks, and come home with a pair of losses. An NFL team has never played two games in a row in London, so this is uncharted territory for the Jaguars and the league as a whole.
There’s also the second-half hype machine that has inflated the Detroit Lions’ over/under season win total as well as the Jaguars’ number of 9.5. Many people think that because the Lions and Jaguars won a bunch of games in the second half of last season, the momentum from that finish will carry over into 2023. I’m not so sure. Each season is different and there are so many variables (including quality of opponent) that influence whether a team goes on a late-season winning streak and why. I like the odds on the under for the Jaguars, and think they will be hard-pressed to win 10 games in a super-competitive AFC this year. It will likely be close, but I don’t think Jacksonville can quite get there.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS UNDER 9.5 WINS +125
