Las Vegas Raiders Win Total Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders had a streaky season last year. Las Vegas finished the campaign at 6-11 while placing third in the AFC West.
Can the Raiders improve their win total from last season and compete for a playoff spot in 2023?
Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 +110
Under 6.5 -130
2022 Season Recap
2022 was Raiders’ head coach Josh McDaniels’ first season at the helm in Las Vegas, and it didn’t go very well. The Raiders had three separate three-game losing streaks and finished 6-11 on the season after starting the year 2-7. The Raiders finished 21st in the NFL in average scoring margin (-1.4), and 19th in yards per point margin (-0.3). The defense was the main issue as Las Vegas allowed opposing offenses to gain 5.8 yards per play, which was a figure that ranked 27th in the NFL. The Raiders boasted one of the best running back wide/wide receiver combinations in the league last season in RB Josh Jacobs and WR Davante Adams. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing last season as he ran for 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns while Adams placed third in the league in receiving yards (1,516) and first in receiving touchdowns (14). Raiders QB Derek Carr was good but not great last season with 3,522 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, but he plays for the New Orleans Saints now. Las Vegas will look to former Patriots and 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo to lead their offense in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Derek Carr, TE Darren Waller (trade), EDGE Clelin Ferrell, LB Denzel Perryman, WR Mack Hollins, CB Rock Ya-Sin, TE Foster Moreau, S Duron Harmon, IDL Andrew Billings, CB Anthony Averett
Key Player Additions: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, QB Brian Hoyer, S Marcus Epps, CB Marcus Peters, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR, DeAndre Carter, TE Austin Hooper, LB Robert Spillane, WR Phillip Dorsett, IDL Jerry Tillery, CB David Long, CB Duke Shelley, EDGE Tyree Wilson (1st round pick), TE Michael Mayer (2nd round pick), WR Tre Tucker (3rd round pick), QB Aidan O’Connell (4th round pick)
The Raiders made a bunch of significant changes to their offense this offseason. They replaced longtime QB Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo and lost three of their top five receivers either through trades or free agency. Despite those losses, I think the Raiders offense will be successful this season. Las Vegas selected former Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft and snagged former Cincinnati receiver Tre Tucker in the third round of this past year’s draft. Both players should be in line to contribute right away. I also liked the Raiders’ addition of former Patriots receiver Jakobi Meyers. Meyers is still only 26 years old and he’s posted back-to-back 800-yard receiving seasons over the past two years with a mediocre Mac Jones as his quarterback.
The fly in the ointment is the fact that Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is currently holding out as part of a contract dispute. Las Vegas just signed former Dolphins and Chiefs running back Damien Williams to bolster their depth at the position, and as of this writing, Josh Jacobs hasn’t signed his franchise tender for the 2023 season nor has he reported to training camp. He posted over 2,000 scrimmage yards last year on his way to a first-team All-Pro selection. If Jacobs elects not to show up, the Raiders will likely be looking at a backfield quartet of the aforementioned Damien Williams, 2022 4th-round pick Zamir White, former Lions running back Ameer Abdullah, and former Patriots tailback Brandon Bolden. The contract situation of Josh Jacobs is something worth monitoring up to and through the start of the NFL’s regular season.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive line coach Frank Okam, assistant special teams coach Maurice Drayton
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Passing game coordinator Scott Turner, offensive assistant/wide receivers coach Matt Lombardi, defensive line coach Rob Leonard, assistant special teams coach Derius Swinton II, coaching assistant/returners coach Danny Amendola
The Raiders only lost two coaches from last season as defensive line coach Frank Okam left to take the same position with the University of Toledo and assistant special teams coach Maurice Drayton left to become the head coach at his alma mater: The Citadel. Las Vegas replaced Okam with former Ravens outside linebackers coach Rob Leonard and Maurice Drayton with 13-year NFL coaching veteran Derius Swinton II. Both of those moves should work out as both new coaches have over a decade of coaching experience at the NFL level.
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The other interesting thing the Raiders did was simply add to their coaching staff. Many teams will simply fire a coach from one position and hire another coach to replace him in that same position. It’s often a 1:1 coaching ratio. Teams typically don’t simply add coaches for the sake of adding them, and they’ll rarely fire a coach from a role and leave it empty. The lone exception to this is if the head coach functions as the offensive or defensive coordinator. But the Raiders added multiple coaches and seemingly created roles for them specifically. The first coach they added was passing game coordinator Scott Turner. Turner is the son of former NFL head coach Norv Turner and will look to keep the Raiders’ above-average passing attack from suffering a dropoff in 2023. Vegas also hired Matt Lombardi to be the new offensive assistant/wide receivers coach. He’ll help veteran wide receivers coach Edgar Bennett coach up a young group of wideouts that will need to produce to prevent Davante Adams from consistently getting double-teamed. The Raiders averaged 54.8 penalty yards per game last season, a figure that ranked 30th in the NFL. Penalties are typically an indicator of an undisciplined team that needs more coaching and leadership. In adding a pair of coaches in freshly created positions, Las Vegas should be able to field a more disciplined and competitive team in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
In the last four years, the Raiders have gone 7-9, 8-8, 10-7, and 6-11. Now most of those games were under a different head coach (Jon Gruden), and a different quarterback (Derek Carr). But the point remains: Las Vegas has reached or topped the 7-win mark in three out of the past four seasons. Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels will be in his second year as the captain of the ship, and he’ll have several former Patriots on his squad that he’ll be familiar with. McDaniels should be able to craft an offense that utilizes the team’s skill position talent and sets up new Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo for success. That’s all assuming that Josh Jacobs’ contract situation gets resolved before the start of the regular season.
As far as the schedule goes, Pro Football Network ranks the Raiders’ schedule as the 16th-toughest in the league, placing it almost directly in the middle. The Raiders play in one of the top divisions in football in the AFC West and will face the AFC East and NFC North in 2023 with their 17th game coming against the Giants at home in Week 9. It’s also worth noting that of Las Vegas’ 11 losses last season, 9 of them were by 7 points or less. There will likely be some positive regression coming for the Raiders, which means that they should beat their win total of 6 last season and come out on top in 7 games or more in 2023. It might come down to the last two weeks of the regular season, but I like the Raiders to win over 6.5 games in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS OVER 6.5 WINS +110
