Los Angeles Chargers Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Los Angeles Chargers had their season end on a Saturday night in Jacksonville when the Jaguars converted a last-second field goal to advance to the divisional round 31-30.
It was a heartbreaking loss as Los Angeles blew a 27-point lead before ultimately falling. The Chargers still have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in Justin Herbert. Can they win 10 games for the second straight season?
Los Angeles Chargers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -125
Under 9.5 +105
2022 Season Recap
In the NFL, teams may go a decade without finding a franchise quarterback. The Los Angeles Chargers undoubtedly have their man in Justin Herbert. Herbert led the Chargers to a 10-7 record in 2022 and made the playoffs for the first time in his career. Herbert was second in the NFL in passing yards with 4,739, second in completions with 477, and fourth in completion percentage among qualified quarterbacks at 68.2%. In each of his first three seasons, Justin Herbert has achieved a completion percentage over 65%, thrown for at least 4,300 yards, and recorded at least 25 touchdown passes. Herbert papered over his team’s weaknesses as L.A.’s defense was 29th in opponent yards per play, 27th in opponent points per play, and 21st in opponent yards per point last year. If Herbert can limit his turnovers (10 interceptions and 3 fumbles lost in 2022) and the Chargers’ defense can play up to its talent level, the sky is the limit for this club in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: EDGE Kyle Van Noy, LB Drue Tranquill, CB Bryce Callahan, S Nasir Adderley,
Key Player Additions: IDL Morgan Fox, IDL Nick Williams, LB Eric Kendricks, WR Quentin Johnston (1st round pick), EDGE Tuli Tuipulotu (2nd round pick), LB Daiyan Henley (3rd round pick), WR Derius Davis (4th round pick), QB Max Duggan (7th round pick)
The Chargers had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season as they ranked eighth in yards per game with 357.1. Los Angeles added former TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft and re-signed running back Austin Ekeler and tackle Trey Pipkins. Johnston offers Justin Herbert another big body (6’4” 193 pounds) to throw to and his college production (60 catches 1,069 yards, 6 touchdowns in 2022) indicates he should be able to contribute right away. Ekeler had one of his best seasons as a pro last year as he racked up 915 rushing yards, 722 receiving yards, and 18 total touchdowns. Justin Herbert was sacked 38 times last season, which was tied for 7th most in the NFL, but that could be chalked up to Chargers’ star left tackle Rashawn Slater tearing his bicep in Week 3 of last season. Slater should be good to go for 2023. The Chargers also made some interesting offensive coaching changes on offense, which we will cover more in depth below.
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Los Angeles addressed their soft run defense this offseason by adding interior defensive linemen Morgan Fox and Nick Williams. L.A. allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt last year, which was the worst mark in the league. The additions of Fox and Williams along with linebackers Eric Kendricks and Daiyan Henley should bolster the Chargers’ defensive front seven and allow them to be respectable against opponents’ ground games. The Chargers still have star pass rushers Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, and 2020 All-Rookie linebacker Kenneth Murray. Furthermore, L.A.’s secondary should be a strength again as they still have 2021 All-Pro safety Derwin James and rising cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. who had three interceptions in the Chargers’ playoff game against the Jaguars this past January. The roster talent is there, so it’s up to the Los Angeles coaching staff and new defensive coordinator to put the players in positions to be successful.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, quarterbacks coach Shane Day, defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill, linebackers coach Michael Wilhoite,
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, quarterbacks coach Doug Nussmeier, defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley (promotion), linebackers coach Jeff Howard, passing game coordinator/secondary coach Tom Donatell (promotion)
After the Chargers’ epic playoff collapse in Jacksonville, many thought that Los Angeles head coach Brandon Staley should have been fired. He wasn’t. Instead, Los Angeles fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and quarterbacks coach Shane Day. That move turned out to be an intelligent one because Los Angeles was able to bring in former Dallas offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and Cowboys quarterback coach Doug Nussmeier as replacements. Moore is one of the rising young offensive minds in the NFL as he was the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys the past two seasons when they went 12-5 in the regular season and made the playoffs in both 2021 and 2022. Moore brings QB coach Doug Nussmeier with him. Nussmeier has been a position coach and/or offensive coordinator at the college and pro levels for the past 21 seasons and he helped the Cowboys produce the NFL’s best scoring offense in 2021 when they averaged 31.2 points per game. If it turns out that Brandon Staley is still the problem in Los Angeles, the Chargers can simply fire him, promote Kellen Moore to head coach, and slide Doug Nussmeier into the offensive coordinator role. If Staley improves his game management, then Los Angeles has one of the better OC/QB coach combos in the NFL coaching one of the most talented offensive skill position groups in the league.
L.A. defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill left the team this offseason to become the passing game coordinator/defensive backs coach for the Miami Dolphins. It’s unclear if Hill left on his own accord or not. In his place, the Chargers promoted their secondary coach Derrick Ansley to the defensive coordinator role. The move makes sense, as Los Angeles’ secondary has been one of the team’s strengths the past few years, and they get to keep some continuity on that side of the ball while also shaking things up enough to improve one of the NFL’s worst units in 2022. New linebackers coach Jeff Howard previously held that role with Minnesota from 2013-2019, and that was likely a big reason former Vikings’ linebacker Eric Kendricks elected to sign with the Chargers this offseason. Under Howard’s tutelage, L.A.’s linebackers should see year-over-year improvement, and that position group should be the backbone of the defense in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
For their non-division games, the Chargers face the NFC North and the AFC East. The Chargers have a much higher ceiling than most clubs due to the talent of their young quarterback Justin Herbert. I went through Los Angeles’ schedule and conservatively estimated that the Chargers will have the better quarterback in 12 of their 17 games. That doesn’t mean that L.A. is going to win all of those games, but it’s something worth examining. The first four weeks of the season should be telling.
The Chargers open at home against Miami, go on the road to face Tennessee and Minnesota, and then get Las Vegas at home before their bye week in Week 5. Los Angeles likely has to go 3-1 in their first four to hit the 10-win mark again in 2023. If they do, they’ll only have to go 7-6 the rest of the way with the end of their schedule potentially setting up nicely for them. The Chargers close out the season with a road game against Denver and a home game against Kansas City. I’m down on Denver this year, so I like the Chargers in that contest. Normally I’d have the Chiefs beating the Chargers, but there’s a chance that Kansas City will have the #1 seed locked up by then and won’t have anything to play for. Such a scenario would offer some wiggle room if Los Angeles were to drop a winnable game earlier in the year. I believe in the talent of the Los Angeles Chargers and I think the addition of wide receiver Quentin Johnston and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will have them recording double-digit wins for the second straight year.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS OVER 9.5 WINS -125
