LA Rams Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Los Angeles Rams went 5-12 and finished third in the NFC West. It marked Rams head coach Sean McVay’s worst single-season record as a head coach.
Can L.A. bounce back and have a respectable year in the rugged NFC West this season?
Los Angeles Rams Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 +100
Under 6.5 -120
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Los Angeles Rams season was marred by injuries and underperformance throughout. Pro Bowlers Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald all got hurt, and the team ended the season with a 5-12 record. That mark was the worst winning percentage ever for a defending NFL or AFL champion. The 2022 season was a low point for Rams head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead, and it seemed like everything that could possibly go wrong did go wrong. Due to Snead’s aggressive team-building strategy, the Rams were short on draft picks in the 2022 offseason. They remedied that by loading up on second and third-day draft selections in the 2023 NFL Draft. The Rams still have a solid veteran core, the question will be if their young players can produce right away as they are forced to learn on the job in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: CB Jalen Ramsey (trade), WR Allen Robinson (trade), QB Baker Mayfield, IDL A’Shawn Robinson, S Taylor Rapp, S Nick Scott, IDL Greg Gaines, G David Edwards, CB Troy Hill, LB Bobby Wagner, CB David Long
Key Player Additions: C Coleman Shelton, G Steve Avila (2nd round pick), EDGE Byron Young (3rd round pick), QB Stetson Bennett (4th round pick), TE Davis Allen (5th round pick), WR Puka Nacua (5th round pick), CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (6th round pick), EDGE Ochaun Mathis (6th round pick), RB Zach Evans (6th round pick)
The Rams were essentially capped out this offseason as they only had $1.76 of cap space to work with. This caused them to essentially sit out free agency in the 2023 offseason. The Rams may still restructure some of the bigger deals they gave their veteran stars as they made a league-high 14 selections in the 2023 NFL Draft. All of those players still need to be signed and their salaries need to fit under the cap, despite the fact that most of them will be making near the league minimum. Given the salary cap constraints, I like what Los Angeles did on offense this offseason. They added some much-needed bulk on the offensive line by signing center Coleman Shelton in free agency and drafting former TCU guard Steve Avila in the second round and former Georgia offensive tackle Warren McClendon in the fifth round. At the skill positions, the Rams added a backup QB (Stetson Bennett), a tight end (Davis Allen), a wide receiver (Puka Nacua), and a running back (Zach Evans). Of those four, I think BYU’s Puka Nacua is the most interesting as he’s listed as the second-string right wide receiver on the Rams’ depth chart and he recorded 834 scrimmage yards (625 receiving, 209 rushing) and 10 total touchdowns in only 9 games of action last year. Sean McVay should find some creative ways to get him the ball this season.
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The Rams lost several players on defense including two interior defensive linemen and four members of their secondary. They did add some interesting pieces through the draft though. Los Angeles selected former Tennessee edge rusher Byron Young in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Young was first-team All-SEC last season and recorded 7 sacks and 12 tackles for loss for the Volunteers in 2022. He should start right away at left outside linebacker and have a chance to make an immediate impact for the Rams this season. In one of the best value picks of the 2023 NFL Draft, the Rams selected former TCU cornerback Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson in the sixth round. Hodges-Tomlinson was a first-team All-American last season and won the Thorpe Award as the nation’s best defensive back. Hodges-Tomlinson had 50 total tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 3 interceptions, a forced fumble, and 15 passes defended for the Horned Frogs last season. He figures to play as L.A.’s backup nickel back in 2023 with the possibility of moving up the depth chart if he performs well in the early part of the season. Overall, I think the Rams did a solid job of improving their roster given what they were able to do because of the salary cap limitations. It’s now up to Sean McVay to prove that last year was an aberration and not the start of a worrying trend.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Liam Coen, special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis, running backs coach Ra’Shaad Samples, defensive backs coach Jonathan Cooley, offensive line coach Kevin Carberry, assistant defensive line coach Skyler Jones, defensive assistant Lance Schulters
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Assistant head coach Jimmy Lake, offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn, running backs coach Ron Gould, secondary coach Chris Beake (promotion), offensive line coach Ryan Wendell, assistant defensive line coach AC Carter, defensive assistant Mike Harris
After 2022’s disastrous result, a house-cleaning was needed in Los Angeles. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen left to become the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at the University of Kentucky while Ra’Shaad Samples left to become the wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator for Arizona State. The rest of the departures were coaches that were let go by Sean McVay this offseason.
The Rams’ offense was one of the worst in the league last season. They were 23rd in points per play, and 31st in yards per play. The team’s injuries at quarterback were likely to blame for most of that. But McVay brings in Mike LaFleur as the team’s new offensive coordinator for 2023. Mike LaFleur is the brother of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur. Matt LaFleur worked with McVay during his time as an assistant with the Washington Redskins and when McVay was the head coach of the Rams. Mike LaFleur previously served as the offensive coordinator of the New York Jets, whose offense was subpar the past few years. I chalk that up to Jets QB Zach Wilson not being good rather than that being an indictment of Mike LaFleur as a coach. The Rams’ offense should be significantly better in 2023, assuming Matthew Stafford can stay healthy for the majority of the season.
Los Angeles ranked 29th in Rick Gosselin’s special teams ranking last season, which was likely why they fired special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis. In his stead, the Rams brought in new special teams coordinator Chase Blackburn, who previously held the same position with Carolina from 2018 to 2021. Blackburn is only 40 years old, LaFleur is 36, and McVay is only 37. With a young team, it seems that Sean McVay intentionally brought in younger coaches so that the staff can relate to the players better. I think L.A. made some substantial improvements to their coaching staff this offseason and we’ll see that borne out on the field in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
For their non-division games, Los Angeles will play the NFC East and the AFC North. Their swing games come at Green Bay, at Indianapolis, and home for New Orleans. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Rams have the 15th-easiest schedule, placing them right in the middle of the pack. If you go by last year’s winning percentage, then the Rams have the 9th-hardest schedule as their opponents had a winning percentage of .533 last season. I like the over for the Rams for three reasons: Sean McVay, the total, and the odds. Rams head coach Sean McVay has a career-winning percentage of .612. He has a record of 60-38 during the regular season. Last year was the first time in his career that he didn’t win at least 9 regular season games. McVay is still one of the brightest young offensive minds in the NFL, and I think his team will perform much better on that side of the ball in 2023.
The total of 6.5 is appealing because the Rams only need to win two more games this year than they did last year. In 2022, the Rams started Baker Mayfield, Bryce Perkins, and John Wolford at quarterback for nearly half the season and still managed to win 5 games. The Rams have too much talent to go 6-11 or worse this season, in my opinion. The odds of +100 are also appealing because you don’t have to pay the vig in order to make this wager. For comparison, if you wanted to bet the over on the Indianapolis Colts’ total of 6.5 wins, the odds would be -130. Because of Sean McVay, the manageable total of 6.5 wins, and the even money odds at +100, I like the Rams over for their regular season win total in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES RAMS OVER 6.5 WINS +100
