Miami Dolphins Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Miami Dolphins went 9-8 and made the playoffs as a wild-card team. They then lost in the wild-card round to the Buffalo Bills on the road 34-31.
Can Miami improve upon last season’s win total and reach the 10-win mark for the first time since 2020?
Miami Dolphins Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -110
Under 9.5 -110
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 Miami Dolphins season was marred by injuries to their starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Tagovailoa suffered two diagnosed concussions last season and another suspected concussion. He missed five games last year, including the Dolphins’ wild-card playoff loss to Buffalo. Tua Tagovailoa posted good numbers when he played as he threw for 3,548 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on an efficient 8.9 yards per attempt last season. His passer rating was 105.5 and his QBR was 68.8 in the 13 games that he played for Miami in 2022. As a team, Miami was 11th in the NFL in points scored per game with 23.8. However, their defense wasn’t as good as the offense as the Dolphins ranked 24th in opponent points per game with 24.1. How some new additions fare on that side of the ball could determine whether Miami’s defense is good enough to win 10 games this season.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: RT Brandon Shell, LB Elandon Roberts, LT Greg Little, S Eric Rowe, EDGE Melvin Ingram, TE Mike Gesicki, IDL John Jenkins, TE Hunter Long
Key Player Additions: CB Jalen Ramsey (trade), S DeShon Elliot, LB David Long Jr., QB Mike White, WR Braxton Berrios, WR Chosen Anderson, TE Tyler Kroft, CB Cam Smith (2nd round pick), RB Devon Achane (3rd round pick), WR/TE Elijah Higgins (6th round pick)
On offense, Miami lost tight ends Mike Gesicki and Hunter Long and added tight ends Tyler Kroft and Elijah Higgins. The Dolphins also re-signed tight end Durham Smythe to be the starter heading into 2023. The reason Miami is thin at tight end is because they have loaded up on wide receivers and running backs. One of the biggest moves Miami made this offseason was re-signing unrestricted free agent running back Raheem Mostert to a reasonable two-year $5.6 million contract. Mostert ran for 891 yards and 6 touchdowns last season. The most exciting addition to the Miami offense is likely slot receiver Braxton Berrios. Berrios played his college ball at the University of Miami and returns to the city to likely serve as the third receiver on day one of the 2023 NFL season. The addition of Chosen Anderson, (formerly Robby Anderson) is a high-risk high-reward signing as Anderson has recorded four seasons of over 750 receiving yards, but he only had 216 receiving yards in 12 games last season.
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On defense, Miami strengthened their secondary by trading for Los Angeles corner Jalen Ramsey and signing former Detroit safety DeShon Elliot. Ramsey is 28 years old but has seen some slippage in recent years. He also suffered a significant knee injury in training camp. Jalen Ramsey will likely undergo a full meniscus repair surgery on his knee. This should knock him out for most or all of the regular season. It’s a big blow to Miami as if Ramsey still had something left in the tank, he and Dolphins corner Xavien Howard could have been one of the best cornerback tandems in the league. At inside linebacker, Miami let Elandon Roberts walk in free agency, replacing him with former Titan David Long Jr. Long had 86 total tackles, 5 passes defended, and 2 interceptions in 12 games for Tennessee last season. His speed and coverage ability could give Miami a different look on defense next season. While Miami does have several star players at multiple key positions, the team’s depth leaves a bit to be desired. If the injury bug bites the Dolphins in 2023, and they suffer more significant injuries to important players (like Jalen Ramsey’s knee injury) there’s a good chance they will struggle to compete in a cutthroat division and conference this season.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, offensive line coach Matt Applebaum, outside linebackers coach Tyrone McKenzie, safeties coach Steve Gregory, assistant linebackers coach Steve Ferentz
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, secondary coach Renaldo Hill, outside linebackers coach Ryan Slowik (promotion), offensive assistant Ricardo Allen (promotion), offensive assistant Mike Judge
Things will largely stay the same for Miami when it comes to offensive coaches in 2023. The biggest loss is offensive line coach Matt Applebaum, who left to take the same position with Boston College. The other main change is the promotion of Ricardo Allen from special teams assistant to offensive assistant. Allen played free safety for 7 years in the NFL before becoming a coach last season. He should offer a unique perspective due to his previous NFL playing and coaching experience. Miami head coach Mike McDaniel will likely continue to call plays on offense, and it seems that the Dolphins will only go as far as he and Tua Tagovailoa can take them. The defense was middling last year but has a chance to be better this season under a new defensive coordinator.
Former Broncos head coach and longtime NFL defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will head up the Dolphins’ defense in 2023. He’ll be joined by former Chargers defensive coordinator Renaldo Hill, who will take on a role as Miami’s secondary coach. Fangio has two decades of defensive coordinator experience at both the college and NFL levels. His defenses are known for being especially stingy when it comes to allowing yards and points. The Dolphins will likely need that type of coaching due to their numbers last season. In 2022, Miami ranked 19th in opponent yards per game, and 24th in opponent points per game. Fangio’s defenses are also typically very disciplined. The Dolphins need to cut down on penalties as they ranked 26th in the NFL last season in penalty yards. Miami averaged 50.8 penalty yards per game last season, and they were one of only 8 teams to average at least 50 penalty yards per game. If Fangio can get the Dolphins to cut down on penalties and consistently get stops, Miami could be headed back to the playoffs. If not, it could be a long year in South Beach.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Preseason strength of schedule metrics aren’t perfect, but they can give you an idea of how tough it’s going to be for a team to win a fixed number of games. According to Sharp Football Analysis, the Dolphins have the third-hardest schedule in the NFL in 2023. Pro Football Network says Miami has the fifth-toughest schedule, and Pro Football Focus believes they have the second-hardest schedule in 2023. This is because Miami plays 6 games against the AFC East, which could figure to be the best division in football. They also play the NFC East, which features three playoff teams from last season. If that wasn’t enough, the Dolphins also must play the Chiefs, Chargers, and the rest of the AFC West. Miami’s swing games are Carolina, Tennessee, and Baltimore, but even if they go 2-1 in those games, it’s going to be an extreme uphill battle to record 10 wins.
There’s also the matter of Tua Tagovailoa’s health. Tagovailoa had at least two (likely three or more) concussions last season, and there’s a legitimate chance that he misses multiple games again in 2023. The Dolphins have signed former Jet Mike White as a capable backup, but he hasn’t shown the ability to stretch the field vertically like Tua was able to do last season. When you combine the real injury risk to Tua Tagovailoa and the high difficulty of the Dolphins’ schedule, I think the under is a better bet than the over. I think Miami wins 9 games or fewer in 2023 and they’re forced to answer genuine questions about head coach Mike McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa going forward.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MIAMI DOLPHINS UNDER 9.5 WINS -110
