Minnesota Vikings Win Total Prediction
The Minnesota Vikings had a tremendously successful if anomalous season in 2022. Minnesota finished 13-4 but had a point differential of -3 and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs to the New York Giants.
Can the Vikings build off of last season’s division title and achieve another winning record in 2023?
Minnesota Vikings Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -140
Under 8.5 +115
2022 Season Recap
In Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first season with the Vikings, his club danced on the razor’s edge all season long. Minnesota won 11 one-score games (games decided by 8 points or less), which was an NFL record. The Vikings did drop 4 games in 2022, and all of those losses came by at least 11 points. Many thought that the Vikings were fraudulent contenders all year, and that appeared to bear out in the playoffs where Minnesota lost their first one-score game of the season, 31-24 at home against the New York Giants.
The underlying statistical numbers point to the 2022 Vikings being an average team. Minnesota was 16th in points per play margin (-0.006) and 12th in yards per point margin (0.9). Furthermore, the Vikings were only 11th in yards per play on offense (5.5) and 30th in opponent yards per play (5.9). Some regression is almost surely coming for Minnesota in 2023 as they very likely won’t win 13 games again. The question when it comes to regression is simply how much will occur.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: RB Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith (trade), IDL Dalvin Tomlinson, CB Patrick Peterson, LB Eric Kendricks, TE Irv Smith Jr.
Key Player Additions: EDGE Marcus Davenport, CB Byron Murphy Jr. IDL Dean Lowry, TE Josh Oliver, WR Jordan Addison (1st round pick), CB Mekhi Blackmon (3rd round pick), CB Jay Ward (4th round pick), RB Dewayne McBride (7th round pick),
Minnesota’s offense will be quite different in 2023 than it was in 2022. Wide receiver Adam Thielen and running back Dalvin Cook are both gone. Vikings tight end Irv Smith Jr. signed a free-agent deal with Cincinnati so he’s gone as well. To replace Adam Thielen, the Vikings drafted former Pittsburgh and USC wide receiver Jordan Addison in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Addison had a decorated college career as he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns en route to the Biletnikoff Award in 2021. He should slide right in and contribute right away to Minnesota’s dangerous passing game. The Vikings brought in former Ravens tight end Josh Oliver at a pretty hefty number (average annual value of $7 million over three seasons) and he should help paper over the loss of Irv Smith Jr. as well as complement incumbent tight end TJ Hockenson. At running back, Minnesota will likely use a committee approach now that Dalvin Cook is gone. The Vikings drafted former UAB running back Dewayne McBride in the seventh round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He ran for 1,713 yards and 19 touchdowns as a senior for the Blazers last season. McBride will join fellow running backs Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler to form a three-back committee that should produce in the neighborhood of 75-80% of Dalvin Cook’s production at a fraction of the former star running back’s salary.
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On defense, Minnesota swapped out edge rusher Za’Darius Smith for former New Orleans pass rusher Marcus Davenport. I like the move because Davenport is much younger than Smith and has a more proven track record at staying on the field. Former Arizona cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. signed a two-year $17.5 million contract with the Vikings, and he should fit right in to replace an aging Patrick Peterson who’s now on the Steelers. The third big move was letting interior defensive lineman Dalvin Tomlinson sign with Cleveland. The Vikings brought in former Packers defensive lineman Dean Lowry to help shore up their defensive front. Lowry figures to start at left defensive end while fifth-round pick Jaquelin Roy out of LSU slots in to play backup nose tackle and offer some depth in the absence of Tomlinson. Minnesota made a conscious effort to get younger and cheaper this offseason, and they should still have enough roster talent to be able to compete in a tough NFC in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell, inside linebackers coach Greg Manusky, assistant quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson, defensive assistant Jerry Modkins
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Brian Flores, inside linebackers coach Mike Siravo, assistant quarterbacks coach Grant Udinski (promotion)
The firing of Minnesota defensive coordinator Ed Donatell shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone who was paying close attention to the Vikings’ defense last season. Minnesota ranked 30th in the NFL last season in points allowed per game with 25.4. The only two teams that allowed more points per game were the Chicago Bears and Arizona Cardinals, and those two teams had top-three picks in this past year’s draft. Replacing Donatell with former Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores is a home run hire in my opinion. Although Flores has never held the role of defensive coordinator in the NFL, he does have head coaching experience, and he called the plays on defense when he was with Miami. Being able to solely focus on the defensive side of the ball has the potential to unlock Flores’ coaching ability and should lead to a vast and noticeable defensive improvement for the Vikings in 2023.
On offense, things look mostly the same for Minnesota from a coaching perspective. They were near-elite on that side of the ball last season. The Vikings were top-eight in the NFL in both points scored per game and yards gained per game last season. Last year was head coach Kevin O’Connell’s first season calling plays, and he did a tremendous job at it. Minnesota’s offensive coordinator Wes Phillips is the son of former defensive coordinator and NFL head coach Wade Phillips, and the grandson of former Houston Oilers head coach Bum Phillips. Wes Phillips, like O’Connell had worked previously with Rams head coach Sean McVay, and his influence on Minnesota’s offense was unmistakable last season. The Vikings offensive coaches will earn their keep in 2023 as they scheme up ways to compensate for the loss of Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Irv Smith Jr.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The underlying numbers signify some regression coming for Minnesota in 2023. The question is, how much regression? The Vikings will still have Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. Cousins threw for 4,527 yards (the fourth most in the NFL) and 29 touchdowns on 7.1 yards per attempt last season. Jefferson might be the best receiver in the NFL and caught 128 passes for 1,809 yards and 8 touchdowns last season. Minnesota may pass more in 2023, but that may lead to their offense being even more explosive than they were in 2022. The defense will almost surely be better as Minnesota added some younger players and made one of the better coaching hires of the offseason in Brian Flores as defensive coordinator.
There’s also the fact that many seem to think that the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears are just going to be automatically better than they were last season. They could be, but I don’t think it’s a sure thing. Minnesota could still win the NFC North next season, and with Aaron Rodgers now playing in the AFC East, the path is there for the Vikings to win consecutive division titles for the first time since 2008 and 2009. The Vikings don’t have their bye week until Week 13, but you should have a pretty good idea whether they’re going to hit the over or not by then. That could offer a potential hedging opportunity for the last month of the season. I like the Vikings to post their second straight winning record and compete for a playoff spot in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: MINNESOTA VIKINGS OVER 8.5 WINS -140
