New England Patriots Win Total Prediction
The New England Patriots recorded their second losing season in three years in 2022. New England finished the year 8-9, placed third in the AFC East, and missed the playoffs.
Can the Patriots right the ship and get back to the postseason in 2023?
New England Patriots Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 7.5 -105
Under 7.5 -115
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 New England Patriots had a weird year. New England went 5-4 in the first 9 games of the season, then proceeded to go 3-5 after their bye week, missing the playoffs for the second time in three years. The Patriots’ coaching staff was a story all season (and not in a good way) as New England eschewed traditional coordinator titles and had former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia in charge of the offense and head coach Bill Belichick’s son Steve Belichick and Jerod Mayo heading up the defense. Pats QB Mac Jones struggled mightily at times last season as he posted a mediocre stat line of 2,997 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns, and 11 interceptions across 14 games. Jones averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, posted a passer rating of 84.8, and had a dismal QBR of 36.2. How he performs will likely be the key factor deciding whether New England will go over their season win total in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Nelson Agholor, RT Isaiah Wynn, RB Damien Harris, LT Yodny Cajuste, QB Brian Hoyer
Key Player Additions: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, RT Riley Reiff, TE Mike Gesicki, TE Anthony Firkser, LT Calvin Anderson, CB Christian Gonzalez (1st round pick), EDGE Keion White (2nd round pick), G/C Jake Andrews (4th round pick), OL Sidy Sow (4th round pick)
2023 could be another long year for New England’s offense. The Patriots lost one of their best offensive skill players in running back Damien Harris, who signed with the Bills this offseason. Harris formed half of a backfield duo that included Rhamondre Stevenson last year. Stevenson will become the feature back and his numbers last season (1,040 rushing yards, 421 receiving yards, 6 total touchdowns) may point to him being ready for that role. The Patriots once again added multiple tight ends in free agency as they signed former Dolphin Mike Gesicki and former Falcon Anthony Firkser this offseason. Both will be behind Hunter Henry on the depth chart, leaving me to wonder why they spent valuable cap space on multiple backup tight ends. New England replaced departing right tackle Isaiah Wynn with incoming free agent tackle Riley Reiff. Reiff has been plagued by inconsistent play and may have a tough go of it in New England as the Patriots have three rookie offensive linemen on their two-deep depth chart. When it comes to pure talent on the offensive side of the ball, New England likely ranks last in the AFC East in 2023.
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The Patriots’ defense wasn’t the problem last year as New England was fifth in opponent yards per play (5.0) and seventh in opponent points per play (0.318). The Pats re-signed several key defenders in cornerbacks Jonathan Jones, Myles Bryant, and Jalen Mills, as well as linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley and safety Jabrill Peppers. New England also added some potential impact defensive players in the draft in first-round corner Christian Gonzalez out of Oregon and second-round Georgia Tech edge rusher Keion White. The only problem is that Gonzalez will likely be asked to start at left cornerback right away and Keion White and third-round linebacker Mapu Marte will be second on the depth chart in their respective positions, meaning that they could be pressed into playing before they’re fully ready. It should also be noted that the Patriots will be facing a much tougher schedule in 2023 than they did in 2022 so they’ll likely experience some defensive regression this season.
Key Coaching Departures: Senior football advisor/offensive line coach Matt Patricia, tight ends coach Nick Caley
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach Bill O’Brien, offensive line coach Adrian Klemm, tight ends coach Will Lawing, assistant head coach Joe Judge (promotion), wide receivers coach Ross Douglas (promotion)
In a shocking turn of events, there were legitimate questions about New England’s coaching last season. The questions weren’t about Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick, but rather the staff he put together. For some reason, Belichick had Matt Patricia, a former defensive coordinator, and Joe Judge, a former special teams coordinator serving as the de facto offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach, respectively. That could be one of the reasons New England QB Mac Jones struggled last year, and why the second-year signal-caller sought help outside the organization. Belichick wised up this offseason and hired former Houston Texans head coach Bill O’Brien as the offensive coordinator. O’Brien spent five years on the Patriots coaching staff from 2007 to 2011 and was the team’s offensive coordinator in his final season in Foxboro. He should be a significant upgrade from Judge and Patricia as O’Brien will assume the roles of both men in 2023. Whether Mac Jones can play well enough to quell the doubts that arose from his play last season could be another story entirely.
No one on the Patriots coaching staff will have the official title of defensive coordinator in 2023. Those duties will be split between linebackers coaches Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick. Bill Belichick will also have significant input into the defensive schemes and game plans each week. Mayo had the opportunity to interview for other franchises’ open head coaching positions this offseason but opted to re-sign with New England as the linebackers coach. Steve Belichick called the plays on defense last season and will continue holding that duty in 2023. Steve’s brother Brian Belichick is the Patriots’ safety coach. Both men are sons of longtime New England head coach Bill Belichick. Belichick himself will be 71 years old this offseason, and he will need to perform one of the best coaching jobs of his career for this team to make the playoffs in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
The New England Patriots play the AFC West and the NFC East for their non-division opponents this season. They play the NFC South for their 17th game, and that’s going to be a home tilt with New Orleans in Week 5. Looking at some strength of schedule rankings, both Sharp Football Analysis and Pro Football Focus rank the Patriots’ schedule as the toughest in the NFL in 2023. The Patriots may finish last in a division featuring three top-10 quarterbacks, and they play four of their last seven games on the road after their bye week in Week 11. It will be tough sledding for New England all season.
The Patriots have records of 7-9, 10-7, and 8-9 in the past three seasons. Mac Jones has been the starting QB for the last two years, and he has a record of 16-15 and a middling career passer rating of 89.0. This will likely be the make-or-break year for Mac Jones as if he plays poorly again, New England may be looking for a new quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft. I think it’s more likely that Mac Jones flames out than steps up. He doesn’t really do any one thing tremendously well, and he’s not good enough in the margins to overcome his athletic deficiencies. By my count, the Patriots will be playing against a QB better than Mac Jones in 12 of their 17 games. That doesn’t mean that the Patriots are going to lose all of those games, it just greatly reduces their margin for error. I know it may sound crazy to bet against Bill Belichick, but Tom Brady is long gone, and the Pats have only gone 25-25 since his departure. I’m taking the under for the New England Patriots’ regular season win total in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS UNDER 7.5 WINS -115
