New Orleans Saints Win Total Prediction
The New Orleans Saints had a disappointing season in 2022. They finished under .500 for the first time since 2016. The team struggled without longtime head coach Sean Payton and Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.
New Orleans will have their work cut out for them under second-year head coach Dennis Allen in 2023. Will the Saints post a winning record in this year?
New Orleans Saints Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -150
Under 8.5 +115
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 New Orleans Saints finished the season 7-10 and wound up placing third in a terrible NFC South division. It was Dennis Allen’s first season as the head coach in New Orleans, and it’s fair to say he left something to be desired. The Saints trotted out Andy Dalton as their starting quarterback for 14 of their 17 games and he played okay, throwing for 2,871 yards, 18 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions while averaging 7.6 yards per pass attempt and posting a passer rating of 95.2. He has now moved on to the Carolina Panthers. New Orleans’ defense was much better than their offense last season. The Saints’ defense was fourth in the NFL in opponent yards per play (5.0) while their offense was 21st in points per play (0.325). The Saints began the 2022 season 4-9 but then went 3-1 to finish out the year after their bye week. How New Orleans ended the season may indicate that the arrow is pointing upward, but that may not ultimately be the case. Regardless, the Saints have more than one new face who could change their fortunes from a year ago.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Andy Dalton, EDGE Marcus Davenport, LB Kaden Elliss, IDL David Onyemata, IDL Shy Tuttle, TE Adam Trautman, WR Marquez Callaway
Key Player Additions: QB Derek Carr, RB Jamaal Williams, TE Foster Moreau, IDL Nathan Sheperd, IDL Khalen Saunders, C Billy Price, IDL Bryan Bresee (1st round pick), EDGE Isaiah Foskey (2nd round pick), RB Kendre Miller (3rd round pick), QB Jake Haener (4th round pick), WR A.T. Perry (6th round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
New Orleans needed a shakeup on offense as they finished the 2022 season 26th in the league in yards per point. This spoke to a lack of explosiveness for the Saints despite having some exciting players. The problem may have been at the quarterback spot. New Orleans addressed that in a big way by inking former Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr to a four-year $150 million contract this offseason. New Orleans also drafted former Fresno State QB Jake Haener in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. New Orleans bolstered their running back depth by signing former Packers and Lions running back Jamaal Williams and drafting former TCU running back Kendre Miller. They should look to run the ball a good deal in 2023. The Saints are a bit thin at the wide receiver and tight end spots once you get past the first string on the depth chart. Both Michael Thomas and Chris Olave have Pro Bowl-caliber talent, but Thomas has only played in 10 games over the past three years. With TE Adam Trautman leaving in free agency, the Saints brought in Carr’s former teammate at tight end, Foster Moreau. Moreau won’t start but should have chemistry with Carr from day one.
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The Saints’ defense was tremendous last season, but they suffered some losses that will be hard to replace. Edge rusher Marcus Davenport had 21.5 career sacks in 5 seasons for the Saints, and they replaced him with Notre Dame edge rusher Isaiah Foskey in the second round of the draft. Foskey notched 22 sacks over his final two years with the Irish but will have big shoes to fill when it comes to rushing the passer. But the two biggest losses on the New Orleans defense are linebacker Kaden Elliss and interior defensive lineman David Onyemata. Both defected to the Atlanta Falcons and they both mentioned former Saints defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen’s presence as the new Atlanta Falcons defensive coordinator as a reason for signing with one of the Saints’ biggest rivals. In the secondary, the Saints have safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Marcus Maye as well as star cornerback Marshon Lattimore, but the depth of that unit tails off significantly after those three. If New Orleans is forced to play a lot of nickel, they could be vulnerable in passing situations all season.
Key Coaching Departures: Co-defensive coordinator/defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen, co-defensive coordinator/secondary coach Kris Richard, tight ends/run-game coach Dan Roushar
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Joe Woods, secondary coach Marcus Robertson, tight ends coach Clancy Barone, passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Ronald Curry (promotion)
The defensive side of the ball was a strength for the New Orleans Saints last season. Head coach Dennis Allen called the plays on defense and defensive line coach Ryan Nielsen and secondary coach Kris Richard both served as co-defensive coordinators for that unit. Atlanta liked Nielsen so much that they hired him to be their defensive coordinator, and the Saints oddly elected to part ways with Richard at the end of the 2022 season. Richard had been a defensive coordinator with Seattle and seemed a likely fit to step in once Nielsen was hired away. Instead, the Saints decided to bring in former Browns defensive coordinator Joe Woods. Cleveland’s defense ranked 20th in opponent points per play, 18th in opponent yards per play, and 28th in yards per point last season. I don’t really understand why the Saints brought on Joe Woods as defensive coordinator when Kris Richard was a perfectly good candidate already on their staff. For that and other reasons, I expect New Orleans’ defense to take a step back in 2023.
The Saints’ offense was stuck in the mud for much of 2022. Some attributed that to Andy Dalton’s mediocre quarterback play, but others pointed the finger at long-time Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. Carmichael has been the offensive coordinator in New Orleans since 2009, and the Saints have had one of the best offenses in the NFL during that span. The problem is, now that Drew Brees and Sean Payton are both gone, Carmichael might get exposed this season as someone who was carried by a Hall of Fame quarterback and a Super Bowl winning coach. If Derek Carr struggles early in 2023 (a very possible scenario) Pete Carmichael Jr. might be the fall guy, justifiably or not.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Saints head coach Dennis Allen has a career record of 15-38. In three years as the Raiders head coach, Allen went 4-12, 4-12, and 0-4 before getting fired. His 7-10 record with the Saints last year was by far his best season as a head coach, and that’s saying something considering most good coaches would consider that record a failure. I don’t think Dennis Allen is a very good coach, and I think his hiring of Joe Woods as defensive coordinator wasn’t a strong one. The Saints may have one of the weakest head coach-offensive coordinator-defensive coordinator trios in the league.
Then there’s the matter of quarterback Derek Carr. Carr wasn’t great last season as he threw for only 3,522 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. He recorded 7.0 yards per pass attempt and posted a passer rating of 86.3, the second-lowest total in his career. What’s worse, Carr is only 63-79 in his career as a starter, and he’s only had a winning record twice in his nine seasons. He’s also 32 years old. Carr could rejuvenate his career in New Orleans, but the odds are stacked against that in my opinion. The Saints’ schedule isn’t terrible as they play the AFC South and NFC North, but I can see them losing multiple games that they are favored in. I’ll take the under on Dennis Allen, Derek Carr, and the Saints in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS UNDER 8.5 WINS +115
