New York Jets Win Total Prediction
The New York Jets had a topsy-turvy year in 2022 as they finished 7-10 and came in last in the highly competitive AFC East.
New York has the second-best odds to win the division in 2023 and will welcome in superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Jets thought they were a QB away last season. Will the addition of Aaron Rodgers be enough to spur them to the playoffs and double-digit wins in 2023?
New York Jets Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 9.5 -125
Under 9.5 +105
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 New York Jets were one team in the first half of the year and another in the second half of the year. The Jets went 6-3 in their first 9 games of 2022 with wins over the Packers, Dolphins, and Bills. The Jets had their bye week in Week 10. After that, the team imploded. New York went 1-7 in the second half of the year, including six straight losses to end the season. In a year that had seemed so promising, things went belly-up in a hurry. The problem wasn’t the defense as the Jets were in the top five in opponent points per game, opponent yards per play, and opponent yards per point. The problem was horrible quarterback play. Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson, and Mike White all started games for the Jets last season, and Wilson posted a horrific QBR of 36.5, which was good for 28th in the NFL. Knowing that even a good quarterback could turn their team into a contender, the Jets traded four draft picks for the rights to Packers QB Aaron Rodgers and two draft picks. New York has their best quarterback since Joe Namath, and if he plays at even an above average level the Jets should make a playoff push in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Mike White, RB James Robinson, WR Elijah Moore (traded), G Nate Herbig, WR Braxton Berrios (released), DT Sheldon Rankins
Key Player Additions: QB Aaron Rodgers, QB Tim Boyle, WR Allen Lazard, WR Randall Cobb, WR Mecole Hardman, S Chuck Clark (trade), S Adrian Amos, OL Billy Turner, EDGE Will McDonald IV (1st round pick), C Joe Tippmann (2nd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Jets’ offense was atrocious last year as they ranked in the bottom seven in the league in yards per play, points per play, yards per pass attempt, and turnover margin per game. The addition of former MVP and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers (and some of his friends) should remedy that problem. Rodgers wasn’t great last year as he posted a stat line of 3,695 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. His completion percentage was only 64.6%, his yards per attempt was only 6.8, his passer rating was only 91.1 and his QBR was a subpar 39.3. Much of Rodgers’ struggles can be blamed on a broken thumb he suffered in Week 5 and the loss of his best wide receiver Davante Adams in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders prior to the 2022 season. When motivated, and playing at his best, Aaron Rodgers is a top-5 quarterback in the NFL. I think he’ll be motivated after finally moving on from the Green Bay Packers organization and he should be primed for a huge year. I’m bullish on the Jets’ offense in 2023.
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The Jets’ defense was great last year as they were the catalyst to the team’s fantastic start, and they should be just as good if not better in 2023. The Jets replaced defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins with former Seattle Seahawks interior defensive lineman Quinton Jefferson, so they should be okay there. The addition of safeties Chuck Clark and Adrian Amos in free agency and nickel corner Jarrick Bernard-Converse in the draft should help improve a pass defense that ranked second in the NFL with 5.8 yards allowed per pass attempt. The Jets have stars at all three levels of their defense. Quinnen Williams is one of the best interior defensive linemen in the league, C.J. Mosely is one of the better veteran linebackers in the NFL, and second-year All-Pro and Defensive Rookie of the Year Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner has a case as the best cornerback in the league. New York’s defense should be elite in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, offensive line coach/run game coordinator John Benton, wide receivers coach Miles Austin
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, passing game coordinator Todd Downing, Offensive line coach/run game coordinator Keith Carter, wide receivers coach Zach Azzani
Because New York’s offense was so dreadful last year, that’s where most of the coaching changes took place. In fact, the only coaching change on defense was the addition of Shaq Wilson as an assistant defensive line coach. The biggest coaching addition has to be Nathaniel Hackett at offensive coordinator. Hackett flamed out spectacularly as Denver’s head coach last season, going 4-11 before getting the boot. But he got that job due to his stellar work as Aaron Rodgers’ offensive coordinator in Green Bay from 2019-2021. In that three-year span, Aaron Rodgers won the NFL MVP award twice (2020 and 2021). Rodgers is very comfortable working with Nathaniel Hackett and cited his presence on the Jets coaching staff as a “big reason” he wanted to join the club. The difference lies in some of the play-calling principles that Hackett uses. With the Packers, head coach Matt LaFleur liked to use a lot of pre-snap motion and window dressing before the play to reveal information about the defense. Rodgers didn’t like that too much and preferred to run more static pre-play sets while using a hard snap count to bait defenses into telegraphing what they were going to do. Hackett uses a lot of West Coast offensive concepts in his passing game which is something Rodgers is used to from all of his years playing for Mike McCarthy. The pairing of Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett might be the best player-and-coach addition made by any team in the league. I think New York’s offense will be superb this year.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh has the team headed in the right direction. In his first season, he went 4-13. Last year he went 7-10 (after starting 6-3). It’s not a stretch to think that the New York Jets will keep improving their record to at least 10-7 this season. The schedule will not be easy as they play the NFC East and AFC West for their non-divisional games, but they get some of their tougher contests at home. The Jets will play the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, and Falcons all at home while they’ll be forced to go on the road to face the Cowboys, Giants Broncos, Raiders, and Browns. So, the Jets get 9 home games with one of their “road” games being against the Giants where they’ll play in their home stadium. One of their road games is also in Dallas against a team that Rodgers has gone 8-3 against throughout his career. New York ends the season with a home game against Washington and road games against Cleveland and New England. They need to be at least 7-7 heading into that with a chance to cash the over. That seems doable to me. I think the Jets front office is proven correct. They were just a quarterback away in 2022. Now they have their quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and he’s going to be motivated and in a good situation to boot. I think the Jets win at least 10 games for the first time since 2015.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: NEW YORK JETS OVER 9.5 WINS -125
