Philadelphia Eagles Win Total Prediction
The Philadelphia Eagles were a few plays away from winning the Super Bowl in 2022. Philadelphia went 14-3 and got the #1 seed in the NFC last season.
The Eagles have the best odds to win the NFC East in 2023 and will be tasked with replacing some key free agent losses on defense. Will third-year head coach Nick Sirianni be able to lead Philly to a second consecutive NFC East division title and another deep playoff run?
Philadelphia Eagles Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 11.5 +100
Under 11.5 -120
2022 Season Recap
The Philadelphia Eagles were the clear-cut best team in the NFC all season in 2022. They finished 14-3 and locked up the top seed in the conference and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. It’s worth noting that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts took a leap last season. Hurts went 14-1 as the starting quarterback and finished second in the NFL MVP voting. He had an amazing statistical season in 2022 using both his arm and his legs. In 2022 Jalen Hurts threw for 3,701 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions while averaging a career-high 8.0 yards per pass attempt and posting a career-high passer rating of 101.5. On the ground, Hurts ran for 760 yards and 13 touchdowns while averaging 4.6 yards per carry across 15 games. Hurts and the Eagles’ offense averaged 5.8 yards per play, which ranked 6th in the NFL. Philly’s defense was even better as they only allowed 4.8 yards per play, which was the best mark in the league. How the Eagles’ defense deals with some departing starters will likely factor greatly in whether Philadelphia can win enough games to go over the total.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, DT Javon Hargrave, LB T.J. Edwards, LB Kyzir White, RB Miles Sanders, QB Gardner Minshew, S Marcus Epps, LG Isaac Seumalo
Key Player Additions: RB Rashaad Penny, RB D’Andre Swift (trade) S Terrell Edmunds, QB Marcus Mariota, S Justin Evans, LB Nicholas Morrow, CB Greedy Williams, DL Jalen Carter (1st round pick), LB Nolan Smith (2nd round pick), OL Tyler Steen (3rd round pick)
2023 Season Outlook
The Eagles’ offense was a strength in 2022 and should be a strength again in 2023. Philly’s offense was second in the league in scoring last season with 29.1 points per game, and they were fourth in the NFL in rushing with 152 rushing yards per game. Their two biggest losses on that side of the ball are left guard Isaac Seumalo and running back Miles Sanders. The Eagles addressed both losses this offseason. Philadelphia selected Alabama offensive lineman Tyler Steen in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He should slot in and start at right guard while Eagles Pro Bowler Landon Dickerson holds down the left guard spot. Philly likely didn’t want to pay Miles Sanders what he ended up getting from Carolina ($25 million over 4 years) so they traded for Lions running back D’Andre Swift and signed Seahawks running back Rashad Penny in free agency. Jalen Hurts should continue to progress and the Eagles’ offense should once again be one of the better units in the league.
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Philadelphia lost multiple defensive starters in the offseason. The key losses are safeties C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. The Eagles replaced their safeties with former Pittsburgh Steeler Terrell Edmunds and former New Orleans Saint Justin Evans. They then brought in former Bears linebacker Nicholas Morrow in free agency and former Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith in the second round of the draft. Morrow and Edmunds should start from day one with Smith and Evans providing depth. Philadelphia’s defense might be a bit worse than it was last year due to some of the losses, but the depth should paper over any debilitating performance concerns. They do have a new defensive coordinator for 2023 in Sean Desai and he’ll have to learn quickly for the Eagles defense to be good-to-great again this season.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, offensive coordinator Shane Steichen
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Sean Desai, offensive coordinator Brian Johnson (promotion), Quarterbacks coach Alex Tanney (promotion)
When there’s a lot of coaching turnover, it usually means a team was struggling and needed a shakeup. The other reason for coaching changes is that the team was so good that other teams wanted to hire the members of their staff to be head coaches. The Eagles lost both coordinators due to the latter scenario. After Philadelphia’s run to the Super Bowl, defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon was hired as the head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen was tabbed as the head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. This made the Eagles the last Super Bowl team to lose both coordinators to head coaching gigs since the 1994 San Francisco 49ers.
The Eagles promoted quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson to offensive coordinator, so Jalen Hurts and company shouldn’t miss a beat. Many credit Johnson with the tremendous leap that Hurts made as a player last season. The new defensive coordinator is former Bears defensive coordinator and Seahawks defensive assistant Sean Desai. Desai was a safeties coach with Chicago in 2019-2020 and helped Bears safety Eddie Jackson make his second career Pro Bowl in 2019. With the Seahawks, Desai was instrumental in the development of young defensive backs Quandre Diggs and Tariq Woolen. Both players made the Pro Bowl in Desai’s lone year in Seattle. Though there is some uncertainty with Sean Desai (he’s only been a defensive coordinator for one year) he is inheriting a talented defense with multiple seasoned veterans (Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, Darius Slay) that should provide leadership and stability all season.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
In two years as Philadelphia’s head coach, Nick Siraianni went 9-8 in 2021 and 14-3 in 2022. When he began his tenure as the Eagles’ head man, Sirianni was the one calling plays on offense. Midway through the 2021 season, he gave up play-calling duties and tabbed then-offensive coordinator Shane Steichen to call the shots on offense. The Eagles proceeded to go 7-2 in the second half of the season and earned a wild card spot in the playoffs. Shane Steichen was the one calling plays all last season as the Eagles rolled to the best record in the NFC with their offense being a chief reason why. Now that Shane Steichen is gone, it appears that new Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson will be calling the plays. Johnson has experience calling plays as he performed that duty during his college coaching stops at Utah, Florida, and Houston. Johnson’s comfort level with the Eagles’ offense and Jalen Hurts as a quarterback likely bode well for how well he and the offense will perform.
The schedule for Philadelphia will not be easy as they open the season with 4 of 6 games on the road. The Eagles could easily come out of that stretch 5-1, and if they do, they’ll only have to go 7-4 the rest of the way to cash the over. That seems achievable as long as they can win at least one of their Week 11-13 games which are at Kansas City, home for Buffalo, and home for San Francisco. Losing both coordinators is obviously not ideal, but I think that Jalen Hurts really is special enough as a player and a team leader that the Eagles should be in serious contention for the #1 seed in the NFC once again at the end of the year. The odds also sweeten the pot a little bit as you get even money for last year’s best team in the NFC to simply come within two wins of their season total last year. It won’t be easy and might come down to the last week of the year, but I’m taking the Eagles and the over for 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES OVER 11.5 WINS +100
