Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Prediction
The 2022 Pittsburgh Steelers went 9-8 and barely missed out on a spot in the AFC playoffs. It marked Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin’s 16th season in a row without a losing record.
Can Pittsburgh match or better last season’s win total and make a playoff push in one of the better divisions in football?
Pittsburgh Steelers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -150
Under 8.5 +125
2022 Season Recap
The Steelers had an up-and-down season in 2022. Pittsburgh went just 2-6 through the first 8 weeks of the season. This losing stretch coincided with the loss of edge rusher T.J. Watt, who missed Weeks 2 through 8. Pittsburgh then had their bye week in Week 9. After their bye week, the Steelers went 7-2 and were the first team out of the playoffs. They finished the year 9-8 after a disastrous beginning to the season. Pittsburgh started a combination of Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett at quarterback. The latter performed relatively well for a rookie as Pickett threw for 2,404 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions while averaging 6.2 yards per pass attempt. Pickett posted a passer rating of 76.7 and a QBR of 51.5. He wasn’t great, but he could progress into becoming an above-average starter in his second year at the helm for the Steelers in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: CB Cameron Sutton, LB Devin Bush, IDL Chris Wormley, S Terrell Edmunds, LB Robert Spillane, CB Arthur Maulet
Key Player Additions: G Isaac Seumalo, WR Allen Robinson III, S Keanu Neal, CB Patrick Peterson, G Nate Herbig, LB Elandon Roberts, T Broderick Jones (1st round pick), CB Joey Porter Jr. (2nd round pick), IDL Keeanu Benton (2nd round pick), TE Darnell Washington (3rd round pick)
Pittsburgh’s offense left a lot to be desired last season, as the Steelers lacked explosiveness on that side of the ball. Pittsburgh only averaged 4.9 yards per play, which ranked 27th in the league last season. What’s more, the Steelers were 25th in yards per rushing attempt (4.1), and 14th in quarterback sack percentage (6.24%). They responded by adding guards Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig in free agency and procuring Georgia tackle Broderick Jones through the draft. Pittsburgh’s offensive line was a weak link last season, but it could be a strength this year. If Pittsburgh’s offensive line shows considerable improvement, it could lead to a cascading effect where Kenny Pickett plays better and Steelers running back Najee Harris builds upon his stellar first two seasons while running for 1,000 yards for the third year in a row in 2023.
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The most significant losses came in the secondary for Pittsburgh this offseason. Cornerback Cameron Sutton left to sign with the Lions, but he’ll be replaced by former Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson. Peterson had 5 interceptions and 14 forced incompletions for Minnesota last year in one of his better recent seasons as a pro. Former Steelers safety Terrell Edmunds is gone, but Pittsburgh signed former Buccaneers’ safety Keanu Neal to replace him. Neal is a former first-round pick out of Florida in 2016, and he will have something to prove in 2023. Pittsburgh possessed the first pick of the second round in the 2023 NFL Draft. With that pick, they selected Penn State corner Joey Porter Jr. Porter’s father, Joey Porter Sr. played for the Steelers for 8 years, so the pick made sense on several fronts. Joey Porter Jr. should slot right in as the starting left cornerback for Pittsburgh on day one of training camp. Pittsburgh still has one of the better free safeties in the NFL in Minkah Fitzpatrick, and his range should go a long way toward covering up some of the holes that a young secondary will inevitably produce.
Key Coaching Departures: Senior defensive assistant/linebackers coach Brian Flores, assistant head coach/assistant defensive line coach John Mitchell, inside linebackers coach Jerry Olsavsky
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Inside linebackers coach Aaron Curry, defensive quality control coach Jason Brooks, outside linebackers coach Denzel Martin (promotion)
Things will largely remain the same for Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin and the rest of his coaching staff. The biggest change is the retirement of assistant head coach/assistant defensive line coach John Mitchell. Mitchell had been with the Steelers since 1994 and retires as one of the more respected and accomplished assistant coaches in the franchise’s history.
Another big change is former Miami Dolphins head coach Brian Flores leaving to become the defensive coordinator with the Minnesota Vikings. Flores only spent one season in Pittsburgh, so it’s difficult to calculate how much of an impact he actually had.
In Flores’ stead, Pittsburgh hired former 2009 first-round draft pick Aaron Curry to coach the inside linebackers and promoted former assistant outside linebackers coach Denzel Martin to become the club’s outside linebackers coach. Curry spent the past four seasons as an assistant coach with Seattle, and 2023 will be his first season as an NFL position coach. He previously coached the defensive line for Charlotte’s college football team from 2015 to 2018.
The Steelers largely kept everything the same on the offensive side of the ball. This was likely done intentionally to help facilitate the development of their young quarterback Kenny Pickett. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Matt Canada and quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan will each be in their third seasons at their current positions in 2023, ideally making things easier for Kenny Pickett and the rising young Pittsburgh offense.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 years as the head coach of the Steelers. He’s gone 8-8 three times and has won at least 10 games nine times. It seems like Mike Tomlin always finds a way to avoid having a losing season. The second half of last season was promising and offered Pittsburgh something to build on heading into 2023.
The schedule isn’t too daunting for the Steelers as they play the AFC South and the NFC West with their swing games coming against the Packers at home, the Patriots at home, and the Raiders on the road. Pro Football Network ranks Pittsburgh’s slate as the 19th toughest schedule, which means it’s slightly easier than average. The Steelers’ regular season records for the past three seasons are as follows: 12-4, 9-7-1, 9-8. To cash the over, all Pittsburgh has to do is match last season’s win total of 9 and extend Mike Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons to 17 straight years. Because Pittsburgh will play several games against teams who are either rebuilding or just aren’t very good, I think the Steelers will be able to achieve a winning record in 2023 and cash the over on the total of 8.5 regular season wins.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: PITTSBURGH STEELERS OVER 8.5 WINS -150
