San Francisco 49ers Win Total Prediction
The San Francisco 49ers recorded their third season of 10 wins or more in four years in 2022. San Francisco finished the year 13-4 but lost at Philadelphia in the NFC Championship Game by a score of 31-7.
Can the 49ers make it back to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years in 2023?
San Francisco 49ers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 10.5 -140
Under 10.5 +115
2022 Season Recap
The 2022 49ers were an absolute force in the second half of the season. After going 3-4 to begin the year, San Francisco ripped off 10 straight wins to finish the regular season, then won a pair of playoff games to reach the NFC Championship Game against Philadelphia. The 49ers got trounced in that game because they had multiple quarterbacks suffer debilitating injuries, leaving them with no healthy passers by the end of the game. The big story for the 49ers in 2022 was the emergence of third-string quarterback and former Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy. Purdy was pressed into starting for San Francisco when both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo suffered season-ending injuries. Purdy went 5-0 as the starter in the regular season and racked up 1,374 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, and 4 interceptions while averaging an efficient 8.1 yards per attempt in 9 regular season games last season. Purdy suffered a torn UCL in his throwing elbow in his club’s NFC Championship Game loss to Philadelphia last January, but he’s been fully cleared to throw and is expected to be the starter when the season opens for the 49ers on September 10th.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: RT Mike McGlinchey, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, EDGE Samson Ebukam, EDGE Charles Omenihu, S Jimmie Ward, RG, Daniel Brunskill
Key Player Additions: IDL Javon Hargrave, EDGE Clelin Ferrell, LG, Jon Feliciano, QB Sam Darnold, CB Isaiah Oliver, WR Chris Conley, QB Brandon Allen, S Ji’Ayir Brown (3rd round pick), K Jake Moody (3rd round pick), TE Cameron Latue (3rd round pick), LB Dee Winters (6th round pick), TE Brayden Willis (7th round pick), WR Ronnie Bell (7th round pick)
San Francisco had one of the best offenses in the NFL last season. They ranked in the top five in the league in yards per play (5.9), points per play (0.424), and yards per point (13.9) in 2022. They acquired former Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey mid-season, and he ran for 746 yards and 8 touchdowns in 11 games for the Niners last year. The biggest loss for San Francisco this offseason was right tackle Mike McGlinchey. McGlinchey played 94.4% of his team’s snaps last season and was key to anchoring the right side of the 49ers’ offensive line. San Francisco signed former Indianapolis tackle Matt Pryor for depth at the position, but it looks like the Niners will start former fifth-round pick Colton McKivitz at right tackle to begin the year. There could be a substantial dropoff at that position that could affect both run and pass blocking. It’s something San Francisco will likely have to work around all season.
Bet on NFL Futures Odds from Any State! $750 bonus for All New Players!
The big addition for the 49ers on defense was former Eagles’ interior defensive lineman Javon Hargrave. Hargrave made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and racked up a career-best 11 sacks for Philadelphia last season. The 49ers gave Hargrave a four-year $84 million contract, so there will be significant expectations for him to perform this season. Lining up next to Hargrave on the defensive line will be former Raiders edge rusher Clelin Ferrell. Ferrell only has 10 career sacks in 58 career games, but he may be forced to take on a larger role if San Francisco can’t get star defensive end Nick Bosa’s contract situation sorted out soon. As of this writing, former NFL Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa hasn’t reported for training camp as he’s holding out for a new lucrative contract. There have been some reports that Bosa’s holdout could last the entire pre-season and may even bleed over into the regular season. That’s not something that a team with potential Super Bowl aspirations wants to deal with, but that’s where things stand for the 49ers right now. Bosa had 18.5 sacks last season and without him, San Francisco’s defense simply isn’t the same. Time will tell how much this will affect the 49ers going forward.
Key Coaching Departures: Defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans, Offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik, pass game specialist/secondary coach Cory Undlin
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, offensive passing game specialist Klint Kubiak, defensive backs coach Daniel Bullocks (promotion), assistant defensive backs coach Andrew Hayes-Stoker (promotion), defensive passing game coach Nick Sorenson (promotion)
San Francisco will be without two coaches who were integral to their success last season. The 49ers’ 2022 defensive coordinator was Demeco Ryans, and he left to become the head coach of the Houston Texans. Ryans played for the Texans as a linebacker from 2006-2011. Ryans headed up a San Francisco defense that ranked in the top three in opponent yards per play (4.9), opponent points per play (0.281), and opponent yards per point (17.5) last season. Ryans won the NFL’s Assistant Coach of the Year Award in 2022 and will likely be missed by the 49ers. What’s worse, Ryans took former Niners offensive passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik with him to Houston. Slowik will be the Texans’ offensive coordinator in 2023. The 49ers had 4 different quarterbacks see action last season, and they still led the league in yards per pass attempt with 8.0. Head coach Kyle Shanahan might be the architect of the 49ers’ offense, but Bobby Slowik almost certainly had a hand in its resounding success last season.
San Francisco brought in former Carolina interim head coach Steve Wilks to head up the defense in 2023. Wilks has been an NFL defensive coordinator for the Panthers and Browns as well as holding the head coaching title for the Arizona Cardinals. It would be fair to assume that San Francisco’s defense will take a step back in 2023 as Wilks figures to be a coaching downgrade from Ryans. The new passing game coordinator for the 49ers is Klint Kubiak. Kubiak held the same position for the Denver Broncos last season. Denver’s passing game looked horrible for most of 2022 and many are wondering whether Russell Wilson will ever be elite again. The connection here is likely familial. Both Kyle Shanahan and Klint Kubiak are the sons of former Denver Broncos coaches in Mike Shanahan and Gary Kubiak, respectively. I could see some regression in the Niners passing game in 2023 as teams have more tape on Brock Purdy and the coaching may not be as good.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
It seemed like everything went right for San Francisco during the 2022 regular season. They went 3-1 in one-score games and feasted on a soft schedule in the second half of the year. I think there’s some regression coming for the 49ers in 2023, whether through injuries or a dip in performance. Kyle Shanahan has a career record of 52-46 as the head coach of the 49ers, and that’s after he went 23-11 the past two years during the regular season. There’s a lot of uncertainty for a team that was a game away from making the Super Bowl last season as quarterback Brock Purdy will likely be the starter. Some may be wondering, where does that leave former 2021 #3 overall pick Trey Lance? There’s also the fact that Nick Bosa is currently holding out. He’s the Niners’ best defensive player, and if he’s holding out for more money it’s hard to quantify what that’s doing to morale or how it’s affecting the locker room.
San Francisco plays the NFC East and the AFC North for their non-divisional games this season and they have the 15th-hardest schedule in the NFL according to Pro Football Network. The 49ers are a few injuries away from going 7-10 this season and they went 6-10 as recently as 2020. I know it might seem odd to take the under on such a talented team, but the favorable odds and the likelihood of regression make it the right side in my opinion.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS UNDER 10.5 WINS +115
