Seattle Seahawks Win Total Prediction
The Seattle Seahawks had a promising season last year. Seattle finished the campaign at 9-8 and was able to grab the final wild-card playoff spot in the NFC.
Can the Seahawks prevent regression and match or better last season’s win total of 9 games in 2023?
Seattle Seahawks Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 8.5 -150
Under 8.5 +125
2022 Season Recap
In many ways, Seattle was a slightly above-average team last season. The Seahawks finished the year 9-8 and snuck into the playoffs as a wild-card team when the Packers lost to the Lions at home on the last day of the regular season. Seattle ranked 13th in the NFL in points per play margin (0.014), 13th in yards per point margin (0.4), and 14th in average turnover margin per game (0.0). One of the bright spots for Seattle last season was quarterback Geno Smith. The former journeyman signal caller had a career year as he led the NFL in completion percentage by completing 69.8% of his passes. Smith had solid raw numbers as well as he threw for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Geno Smith will be back with Seattle for at least one more season in 2023, and his presence allowed the Seahawks to draft some skill position players in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft instead of gambling on a potential franchise quarterback. Pete Carroll’s crew should have a shot at making it back to the playoffs in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: IDL Poona Ford, LB Cody Barton, S Ryan Neal, S Johnathan Abram, IDL Quinton Jefferson, WR Marquise Goodwin, RB Rashaad Penny
Key Player Additions: LB Bobby Wagner, S Julian Love, IDL Jarran Reed, C Evan Brown, LB Devin Bush, IDL Dre’Mont Jones, CB Devon Witherspoon (1st round pick), WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1st round pick), EDGE Derick Hall (2nd round pick), RB Zach Charbonnet (2nd round pick)
Seattle made a number of significant moves this offseason. Almost all of them were upgrades. The Seahawks brought back former All-Pro linebacker Bobby Wagner and former Seahawk interior defensive lineman Jarran Reed to bolster their front seven. To that end, Seattle also signed former Broncos IDL Dre’Mont Jones in free agency, drafted IDL Cameron Young, and selected linebackers Derick Hall and Mike Morris in the draft as well. All of those players will serve in starting or backup roles and should help improve a Seattle defense that ranked 25th in points allowed per game (24.6) last season. The Seahawks’ secondary should be a strength in 2023 as they drafted big Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon with the #5 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. He’ll join corners Michael Jackson and Tariq Woolen and safeties Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs to form one of the most skilled secondaries in the NFL. Seattle ranked 22nd in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.8) last year, but that number should fall significantly in 2023.
Bet on NFL Futures Odds from Any State! $750 bonus for All New Players!
On offense, Seattle re-signed QB Geno Smith and added a couple of impact skill players in the draft. Ohio State wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba could be one of the best value picks in the entire draft. In 2021 Smith-Njigba lit up the Big Ten with 95 catches for 1,606 yards and 9 touchdowns. He should complement Seattle wideouts Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf nicely. UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet offers the Seahawks some valuable running back depth after the loss of Rashaad Penny in free agency. Charbonnet had a monster year for the Bruins in 2022 as he ran for 1,359 yards and 14 touchdowns while averaging 7 yards per carry. He should see a nearly equal time-share split with incumbent running back Kenneth Walker III as long as Walker can stay healthy in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Associate head coach/defense Sean Desai, quarterbacks coach Dave Canales, assistant wide receivers coach Brad Idzik, assistant defensive line/defensive ends coach Aaron Curry
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Quarterbacks coach Greg Olson, secondary coach Roy Anderson, pass rush specialist BT Jordan, senior defensive assistant/defensive passing game coordinator Karl Scott (promotion), offensive assistant Donovan Jackson, offensive assistant Robbie Picazo
The biggest coaching losses for Seattle are associate head coach/defense Sean Desai and quarterbacks coach Dave Canales. Desai is now the defensive coordinator in Philadelphia and Canales is the offensive coordinator for Tampa Bay. Seattle’s defense wasn’t great last year as they ranked 23rd in opponent yards per play, so the loss of Desai shouldn’t hurt them too badly. Canales was likely instrumental in the resurrection of Seahawks QB Geno Smith’s career, but Seattle offensive coordinator Shane Waldron (who is still with the club) likely had a hand in that as well. To replace Canales as QB coach, Seattle brought in Greg Olson who has 21 years of NFL coaching experience as both an offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He should be able to help Geno Smith continue to play well in 2023. The Seahawks didn’t hire a direct replacement for Sean Desai as they added secondary coach Roy Anderson and pass rush specialist BT Jordan to their staff. Jordan will likely take on some of the coaching duties of former Seattle assistant defensive line coach Aaron Curry, who left to become the inside linebackers coach in Pittsburgh.
Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is still one of the better coaches in the NFL and he’s demonstrated an ability to consistently assemble solid coachings staffs even when key assistants leave for better positions in other organizations. Seattle won last year by doing enough on offense and having an elite special teams unit. The Seahawks ranked second in Rick Gosselin’s annual special teams rankings last season and should have a solid special teams unit again. The Seahawks will have continuity as veteran special teams coordinator Larry Izzo will return for his third year in that position for the club.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Seattle should compete for the NFC West division title in 2023 as they seem to be the clear second-best team in the division behind San Francisco. The Seahawks went 4-2 in the division last season, and that seems doable again. For their non-divisional opponents, Seattle faces the NFC East and the AFC North, with one of their swing games coming against Tennessee on Christmas Eve in Week 16. According to Pro Football Network, the Seahawks will have the 11th-hardest schedule in the NFL in 2023. They need only to win 9 games to cash the over. That seems achievable to me.
Pete Carroll has a recent track record that speaks for itself. Over the last five seasons, the Seahawks have gone 10-6, 11-5, 12-4, 7-10, and 9-8. Most of those seasons were with Russell Wilson at quarterback, but he was also the quarterback when the Seahawks went 7-10 in 2021. The trend line is pointing up for Seattle, and they should be better at home in 2023 than they were in 2022. Last season Seattle went 5-4 at home, and the year before that they only went 3-5 at Lumen Field. With a better defense and a solid running game, the Seahawks should have their home stadium rocking as they host the 49ers, Eagles, and Steelers, during the last 7 weeks of the season. I also believe that the additions of former Seahawks Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed will do wonders for Seattle’s culture as those two players are experienced veterans who know what is expected of them. They should set the tone for Seattle’s younger players and provide an example for the rookies and second and third-year players to follow. It may come down to the last three weeks of the season, but I like the Seahawks to match or surpass their win total of 9 games last season.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS OVER 8.5 WINS -150
