Tampa Bay Bucs Win Total Prediction
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had an odd season last year. Tampa Bay finished the campaign at 8-9 but were still able to win the NFC South.
Can the Buccaneers prevent a significant dropoff now that Tom Brady retired and win 7 games or more in 2023?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 +120
Under 6.5 -145
2022 Season Recap
Tampa Bay won their division with a losing record in 2022. The Tom Brady-led Buccaneers went 8-9 while the rest of the division finished 7-10. Brady was good as he threw for 4,694 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. His final season ended with a whimper as Tampa got thoroughly outplayed at home in the wild-card round of the playoffs, losing to Dallas 31-14. The advanced numbers for the 2022 Buccaneers weren’t great as Tampa Bay ranked 30th in yards per point margin (-3.9), and 28th in points per play margin (-0.077). What’s worse, the Buccaneers ranked 22nd in the NFL in average turnover margin per game at -0.2 and 25th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.1. 2022 was Buccaneers’ head coach Todd Bowles’ first year at the helm in South Florida, and he’ll have his work cut out for him if his club is going to compete for the division title without the greatest quarterback of all time taking snaps for them in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Tom Brady, WR Julio Jones, RG Shaq Mason (trade), S Mike Edwards, EDGE Carl Nassib, LT Donovan Smith, S Keanu Neal, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, IDL Akiem Hicks, RB Leonard Fournette, CB Logan Ryan
Key Player Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, LG Matt Feiler, IDL Greg Gaines, S Ryan Neal, RB Chase Edmonds, QB John Wolford, IDL Calijah Kancey (1st round pick), OT Cody Mauch (2nd round pick), EDGE YaYa Diaby (3rd round pick), LB SirVocea Dennis (5th round pick), WR Trey Palmer (6th round pick)
Tampa Bay’s offensive backfield is going to be completely different in 2023 than it was in 2022. Future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady is officially retired (for good this time, he says), meaning that the Bucs’ starting signal caller will likely either be veteran Baker Mayfield or third-year 2021 second-round pick Kyle Trask. There’s reason for optimism at the quarterback spot because of the talent the Bucs have at wide receiver. Tampa still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Those two form one of the better top-two receiving duos in the league. Tight ends Cameron Brate and Kyle Rudolph are gone, but they were getting a bit long in the tooth anyway. The Bucs didn’t bring back aging running backs Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard, instead opting to sign RB Chase Edmonds in free agency and elevate Rachaad White to the starting tailback spot. It seems counterintuitive that Tampa’s offense could be better without Tom Brady, but that is a distinct possibility to me.
The Buccaneers’ defense wasn’t the problem last season and they re-signed several key members of that unit this spring. The two biggest re-signings were cornerback Jamel Dean and linebacker Lavonte David. Both players were integral to Tampa Bay’s Super Bowl championship in 2020, and they should anchor the Bucs’ defense for 2023 and years to come. Tampa Bay’s defense was 18th in opponent yards per rushing attempt last season, and it was the second consecutive year that they finished worse in that category than the year before. The Bucs brought in former Rams interior defensive lineman Greg Gaines in free agency and drafted former Pittsburgh interior defensive lineman Calijah Kancey to help bolster their defensive front in 2023. I like the moves and am reasonably confident that Tampa Bay’s defense will be its most effective unit next season.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich, quarterbacks coach Clyde Christensen, running backs coach Todd McNair, wide receivers coach Kevin Garver, assistant defensive line coach Lori Locust, outside linebackers coach Bob Sanders
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Offensive coordinator Dave Canales, quarterbacks coach Thaddeus Lewis, running backs coach Skip Peete, wide receivers coach Brad Idzik, outside linebackers coach George Edwards
Tampa Bay’s offense ranked 31st in points per play in 2022 with 0.264. Only the Indianapolis Colts were worse. That’s not exactly ideal when you have Tom Brady as your quarterback. As a consequence, the Buccaneers revamped most of their offensive coaching staff. They fired offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich and parted ways with three other position coaches on that side of the ball. I think those moves had to be made, and the people they brought in should be better than their counterparts were last year. New Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales was the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator last season, and he oversaw a career renaissance from former journeyman quarterback Geno Smith. The thinking is that Canales can perform a similar minor miracle with former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield. I’m bullish on Mayfield’s chances to revive his career under the tutelage of Dave Canales.
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Tampa’s new quarterbacks coach is Thaddeus Lewis, who was a former journeyman NFL quarterback himself not too long ago. Lewis spent the past two seasons on the Buccaneers’ staff as an assistant wide receivers coach and gets the promotion to QB coach in 2023. He should thrive in his new role. Tampa Bay also brought in Skip Peete as their running backs coach. Peete is one of the more seasoned coaches in the entire league as he has 25 years of NFL coaching experience, all of them as a running backs coach. His knowledge should ensure that Tampa won’t miss veteran backs Leonard Fournette and Giovani Bernard in 2023. New wide receivers coach Brad Idzik was on Seattle’s staff with Dave Canales last year and should provide consistency in messaging between the team’s offensive coordinator and wide receivers coach. It also helps that the Buccaneers have one of the better wide-receiving groups in the league. New Buccaneers outside linebackers coach George Edwards steps in for the retired Bob Sanders. Edwards has nine years of NFL defensive coordinator or co-defensive coordinator experience and should help coach up one of the most talented position groups on the Tampa Bay roster in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
Tampa Bay plays in one of the worst divisions in football in the NFC South, and they play two weaker divisions in their non-division games this year in the AFC South and the NFC North. Pro Football Network ranks the Bucs’ schedule as the 13th-easiest schedule while Pro Football Focus ranks it as the 14th-easiest slate. There are winnable games all over the schedule for Tampa Bay this season, and I have them at 6-6 after their December home game against Carolina, meaning they’d only have to win 1 out of their next 5 to cash the over in that scenario. I think that’s more than doable.
It’s doable because I believe in the Baker Mayfield renaissance. Mayfield is just two years removed from a 2020 season where he threw for 3,563 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions while averaging a yards per attempt of 7.3, posting a passer rating of 95.9 and a QBR of 65.5. The latter three numbers were all career bests. And here’s the thing: Mayfield is still only 28 years old. He’s not washed up because he had a bad year for a dysfunctional franchise and that team didn’t want to pay him. New Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales resurrected Geno Smith’s career at age 32. At his peak, Baker Mayfield was a much better quarterback than Geno Smith. I believe that Baker Mayfield will return to playing like an above-average to good quarterback again. And with Tampa Bay’s defense and wide receiving corps, that’s enough to win at least 7 games and legitimately compete for the NFC South title in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS OVER 6.5 WINS +120
