Washington Redskins Win Total Prediction
The Washington Commanders had an average if peculiar season last year. Washington finished the campaign at 8-8-1 but came in last in the hotly contested NFC East.
Can the Commanders prevent a noticeable dropoff now that young QB Sam Howell will be starting in 2023?
Washington Commanders Over/Under Win Total Odds via BetMGM
Over 6.5 -105
Under 6.5 -115
2022 Season Recap
Washington traded for former Colts quarterback Carson Wentz in the 2022 offseason. He promptly went 2-4, got injured, and then sat while Commanders backup QB Taylor Heinicke took the reins. From there, the Commanders went 5-3-1 and narrowly missed the playoffs. They became the first team since 2008 to finish last in their division with a non-losing record.
2022 was Commanders head coach Ron Rivera’s third year at the helm, and it was the first time he’d won at least 8 games in a season since taking over. Despite the Commanders’ non-losing record, the underlying numbers pointed to them being a below-average club in 2022. Washington ranked 20th in average scoring margin (-1.3), 26th in points per play margin (-0.062), and 28th in yards per point margin (-2.4). As bad as Carson Wentz was last year (32.9 QBR), the Commanders were lucky to have a capable backup like Taylor Heinicke (89.6 passer rating) to come bail them out. Both of those QBs aren’t on the club anymore, so the Commanders will likely turn to former North Carolina quarterback and 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell in 2023.
2023 Season Preview
Key Player Departures: QB Carson Wentz, QB Taylor Heinicke, LG Andrew Norwell, RG Trai Turner, S Bobby McCain, LB Cole Holcomb, C Wes Schweitzer
Key Player Additions: RT Andrew Wylie, C Nick Gates, LB Cody Barton, QB Jacoby Brissett, S Joshua Kalu, IDL Abdullah Anderson, K Michael Badgley, WR Byron Pringle, CB Emmanuel Forbes (1st round pick), S Jartavius Martin (2nd round pick), C Ricky Stromberg (3rd round pick), RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (6th round pick)
Washington’s offense is going to look markedly different in 2023 than it did in 2022. Their top two quarterbacks (Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke) are both gone and the Commanders added multiple offensive linemen (RT Andrew Wylie and C Nick Gates) who figure to start for the club in 2023. Washington needed to revamp their offensive line as the Commanders’ offense ranked 25th in quarterback sack percentage (7.97%), 28th in average yards per rushing attempt (4.0), and 21st in average yards per pass attempt (6.8). It’s not always easy to know whether the offense’s struggles were due to poor coaching, subpar offensive line play, or lacking quarterback performance, but the Commanders made significant changes in all three of the above areas this offseason. 2022 fifth-round pick Sam Howell is currently listed as the starter at quarterback. He only played in one game last season and went 11 for 19 for 169 yards with 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception in a 26-6 Week 18 win over the Cowboys. If Howell struggles early, the Commanders may go to veteran backup Jacoby Brissett if the rest of the team appears good enough to compete in a tough NFC in 2023.
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Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the league, and they elected to re-sign Pro Bowl interior defensive lineman Daron Payne to a massive four-year $90 million extension this offseason. Chase Young and Montez Sweat are the defensive ends on the Commanders’ stellar line and fellow former Alabama player Jonathan Allen is the other defensive tackle next to Daron Payne. Washington’s back seven will likely be a question mark all year as they will have to likely start one rookie (cornerback Emmanuel Forbes) and have another first-year player as a backup (nickel back Jartavius Martin). Washington also lost two of their top five tacklers from last season in safety Bobby McCain and linebacker Cole Holcomb, and the Commanders may struggle to replace that production in 2023.
Key Coaching Departures: Offensive coordinator Scott Turner, wide receivers coach Drew Terrell, offensive line coach John Matsko, senior offensive assistant Jim Hostler
Key Coaching Promotions/Additions: Assistant head coach/offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, quarterbacks coach Tavita Pritchard, wide receivers coach Bobby Engram, defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmayer (promotion), senior offensive advisor/game management Ken Zampese (role change)
The biggest change on Washington’s coaching staff was the addition of former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy will be the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator for the Commanders in 2023. I’m skeptical of how well that move is going to work out. The Kansas City Chiefs’ offense was spectacular largely because of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, in that order. Eric Bieniemy is a tangential piece to that success, and his inability to land a head coaching job suggests that NFL front offices know that he isn’t the reason the Chiefs have been so good the last five years. So that move is an iffy one for me. The Commanders also fired their offensive line coach John Matsko, but as of this writing haven’t named a replacement. They still have assistant offensive line coach Travelle Wharton on staff, but it’s not clear if he will be handling the offensive line coach duties or if someone else will be taking on those responsibilities. The Commanders’ recent ownership change may have something to do with that, and there’s still a month left in the offseason as of this writing, so that could get sorted out soon.
One of Washington’s better position groups was their wide receivers. This might mean that the exodus of wide receivers coach Drew Terrell to Arizona might hurt them. In his stead, the Commanders brought in former NFL wide receiver and Wisconsin offensive coordinator Bobby Engram. Engram brings seven years of NFL wide receivers coaching experience and three years of NFL tight end coaching experience. He’s one of the more respected position coaches in the league and should be one of Washington’s best coaching staff additions for 2023. The problem is, it might not matter how good the Commanders’ receivers are if their quarterback can’t get them the ball. That’s something that will loom over Washington’s head the entire season and may be their undoing in a rough-and-tumble NFC East division in 2023.
NFL Over/Under Prediction
When examining over/under predictions it helps to look at the team’s 2023 strength of schedule and their cumulative record over the last three years. The Commanders have yet to have a winning season in any of Ron Rivera’s first three seasons at the helm. They went 7-9 in 2020, 7-10 in 2021, and 8-8-1 last season. Not exactly ideal. The Commanders will also play the 10th toughest schedule this year as they play six games against the NFC East, four against the NFC West, and four against the AFC East. By my count, Washington will have the lesser quarterback in 14 of their 17 matchups, assuming their opponent’ starters remain healthy. Former 2022 fifth-round QB Sam Howell may eventually turn out to be an adequate NFL starter, but it seems like a lot to ask for him to play at an above-average level in 2023 when he only has 1 career start.
There’s also the matter of coaching. The new ownership group may be quick to fire Commanders head coach Ron Rivera, as they weren’t the ones that hired him. Additionally, aside from a 2020 division title (in a season Washington went 7-9), Rivera hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. Reports have already surfaced that Commanders’ players were complaining about new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s intensity levels, and Rivera thought that would be an appropriate topic to discuss with the press. I think it’s more likely that this Commanders season goes down in flames than they improve upon the eight wins they had last year or even come close to that mark. For that reason, I’m on the under of 6.5 for the Washington Commanders’ regular season win total in 2023.
NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTAL PREDICTION: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS UNDER 6.5 WINS -115
