The 2024 NFL season kicks off on Thursday night when the Chiefs host the Ravens at 8:20 p.m. ET. That said, there’s still plenty of time to attack the NFL Win Totals market. Here are five win totals I’m betting before the NFL season.
NFL Win Totals: Atlanta Falcons over 9.5 Wins (-154)
Last season, the Falcons won seven games with one of the worst quarterback rooms in the NFL. Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were the top two names on Atlanta’s depth chart at quarterback last season. This year, however, free agent signing Kirk Cousins and rookie seventh overall pick Michael Penix will occupy the quarterback room in Atlanta. This team also made key additions less than a month ago in acquiring pass-rusher Matthew Judon from the Patriots and signing safety Justin Simmons, previously from the Broncos. New coach Raheem Morris has plenty to work with on both sides of the ball and seeing as how the Falcons play in one of the worst divisions in football, they should reach the 10-win mark this year.
NFL Win Totals: New England Patriots under 4.5 Wins (+106)
I think the Patriots have one of the worst rosters in the NFL. They also won’t have Bill Belichick to win them a handful of games based on his ability to perfect game plans and master in-game decision-making. Rookie head coach Jerod Mayo is tasked with establishing a new culture in New England. Hopefully for Patriots fans he does a great job. But this is going to take time. I don’t see five wins on this schedule and I’m shocked the under is juiced to +106 on this win total. I not only see the Patriots finishing with less than 4.5 wins, but I also envision them owning the No. 1 overall pick next April.
NFL Win Totals: New York Jets under 9.5 Wins (+132)
The Jets have been drafting in the top-10 for years, so this is one of the better rosters in the NFL. That said, this is also one of the most dysfunctional organizations in all of football. Ownership has been a problem for years, they have yet to find a general manager that doesn’t make crippling mistake after crippling mistake with the roster and head coach Robert Saleh looks like he’s in over his head again. Do the Jets have a great defense? Yes. Is Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson exciting skill position players? Yes. Will Aaron Rodgers rediscover what made him an MVP two years ago? Doubtful. Is the offensive line better? No. I feel as though pundits are overlooking key issues with this team, none bigger than that they’re the f*cking Jets.
NFL Win Totals: Chiefs over 11.5 Wins (-112)
Every year this number seems low. There’s no reason to believe that the Chiefs will take a step back in 2024. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are worth 10 wins alone and the front office added some pieces to upgrade the offense, none bigger than receiver Xavier Worthy. The defense was one of the youngest in the leagues last year when the Chiefs won the Super Bowl and the division is still chockful of wins. Even if Kansas City hits some rough patches, the Chiefs have the best head coach and the best quarterback in the league. They’ll win another 12-plus games.
NFL Win Totals: Cleveland Browns under 8.5 Wins (+112)
I know the Browns made the playoffs last season with Joe Flacco but he’s no longer around. There’s nothing in Deshaun Watson’s recent history to suggest that he’s going to overcome injuries and poor performance to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year. The player we saw at Clemson and the Texans no longer exists. In his place is an erratic, overpaid, liability. With no Flacco to lean on this time around, I don’t see how Cleveland wins another 9-plus games. Plus, while the defense was excellent last season, that was only at home. Check out the yards and points they allowed on the road last season. They were massive contradiction.
