Has Patrick Mahomes gone over or under recently on his passing prop numbers? What about Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy? Read on for Chiefs player prop trends ahead of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between Kansas City and Buffalo at Arrowhead Stadium.
Chiefs Player Prop Trends: Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes’ passing total has been set at 252.5 for Sunday’s rematch with the Bills. He fell under his passing total versus Buffalo back in November. He also fell under last week in the Chiefs’ Divisional round matchup versus Houston. That said, he has gone over his passing yards total in five of his last nine games. This excludes the Chiefs’ Week 18 matchup versus Denver in which Mahomes and several starters rested.
Mahomes also has a total of 36.5 for passing attempts. Meanwhile, his over/under for passing completions is 24.5 (over juiced to -122). Last Sunday was the first time Mahomes fell under his passing attempts total in seven games. In fact, he has gone over in seven out of his last nine games. However, he did cash another over for completions. This makes three consecutive games Mahomes has beaten his completions total.
As far as Mahomes’ passing touchdowns prop, the number currently sits at 1.5, with the over juiced to -154. He’s fallen under his passing touchdowns total in five of his last nine games. This includes last week’s Divisional round win over the Texans.
When it comes to rushing, Mahomes has gone under his rushing yards total in six out of his last nine games. That includes his 14-yard output against the Texans last week when the total was set at 26.5. Mahomes’ rushing total for Sunday is 24.5, a number he’s topped just once in his last six games. If you want to bet the over on any rushing props for Mahomes, your best bet is his longest run. His number on Sunday is 12.5, which is a total he’s topped in two of his last three games.
Chiefs Player Prop Trends: Travis Kelce
Playoff Travis Kelce emerged again last week for the Chiefs. He went off for 117 yards against the Texans, crushing his receiving yardage total (54.5) in the process. He’s now gone over his receiving yards number in five out of his last nine games.
Kelce also had a big day from a receptions standpoint, hauling in seven passes to hit the over 5.5. He’s gone over his receptions number in back-to-back games. Although, he’s fallen under his receptions total in five out of his last nine contests. Kelce’s receptions total sets at 6.5 for Sunday.
As for his longest reception, the over/under for Kelce on this prop is 20.5. He’s gone over his longest reception total in five of his last nine games.
Chiefs Player Prop Trends: Xavier Worthy
Worthy had somewhat of a quiet day against the Texans last Saturday. This is at least compared to how he had been trending entering the playoffs. He fell under in receiving yards at 45 (52.5 total), although he did go over in receptions (5) for an eighth consecutive game. It was the first time in his last eight games that Worthy did not cash the over on his receiving yards prop.
Oddsmakers have set Worthy’s receiving yards number at 51.5 for Sunday. His receptions over/under is 4.5, with the over juiced to -148.
Chiefs Player Prop Trends: Kansas City Running Backs
Kareem Hunt’s rushing total for Sunday is 35.5, while Isiah Pacheco has an over/under of 29.5 for rushing yards. Hunt went over his 32.5-yard rushing prop last week against the Texans. He finished with 44 yards on the ground. However, he went under for attempts by a half (he had 8, his number was 8.5). Hunt’s rushing attempts total is the same as last week (8.5).
Pacheco has not topped his rushing yards total in four straight games. He returned from injury in Week 13 and immediately hit the over. He also rushed over his rushing number the following week against the Chargers. But his current four-game under streak started in Week 15 versus the Browns. The running back had just 18 yards rushing last Sunday against the Texans. He also only had five attempts, which also cashed the under.
Chiefs Player Prop Trends: Other Kansas City Receivers
Kansas City’s receivers have been quiet of late. DeAndre Hopkins has fallen under his receiving yards number in five consecutive games. He had zero receiving yards last week against the Texans. He’s also gone under his receptions number in back-to-back games. However, he went over in five out of his last seven games, so buyer beware. Hopkins’ receiving yards number for Sunday is 23.5, while his receptions total is 2.5 (the under is juiced to -154).
As for Marquise Brown, “Hollywood” also fell under in receiving yards last Sunday against the Texans. But he had cashed the over in his two previous games. It’s the same story with his receptions total. He fell under last Saturday against the Texans (he failed to secure a catch in that game), but went over in his two prior games. Brown missed most of the season with an injury. His reception total is 3.5, while his receiving yards number for Sunday’s AFC title game is 39.5.
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