Bills vs. Bears Prediction & Odds
The Buffalo Bills travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on Saturday afternoon when Week 16’s afternoon slate begins at 1:00 PM ET. Can the Bears cover the 8.5-point spread as home underdogs?
The Buffalo Bills are 11-3 through their first 14 games of 2022. They are 5-2 in their last 7 games. The Bills are 6-7-1 ATS this season.
The Chicago Bears are 3-11 on the year. They are 0-7 in their last 7 games. The Bears are 5-8-1 ATS this season.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
461 Buffalo Bills (-8.5) at 462 Chicago Bears (+8.5); O/U 40.5
1:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 24, 2022
Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Bills vs. Bears Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that the public favors the Bears in this game. According to our numbers, 56% of public bets are on Chicago +8.5. Please note that this information is subject to change all the way up to kickoff, so be sure to check the link before you pick so you’re receiving the most accurate and up-to-date public betting data.
Buffalo Bills DFS Spin
Bills quarterback Josh Allen is having a monster year. He is fifth in the NFL in passing yards (3,857), third in touchdown passes (30) and third in total QBR (71.7). If that wasn’t enough, Allen leads the Bills in rushing yards (705) and rushing touchdowns (6). He would likely be worth the price tag in DFS this weekend.
Buffalo pass catchers should be in play against a Chicago defense that ranks 31st in the NFL in opponent yards per pass attempt. That means wide receivers like Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis could have some value, as well as tight end Dawson Knox. Knox has recorded two straight games with at least 4 receptions and a touchdown and he could be in for another big day Saturday.
Chicago Bears DFS Spin
Bears QB Justin Fields has developed into one of the most dynamic and explosive players in the league. Fields has thrown for 2,048 yards and 15 touchdowns and run for 1,000 yards and 8 touchdowns this season. He might not come cheap and he’ll be facing a Buffalo defense that’s 10th in the NFL in opponent yards per play, but Fields might be worth the risk on Saturday.
Chicago may be short a few skill players this weekend. Wide receiver Chase Claypool is doubtful for Saturday’s game with a knee injury and Equanimeous St. Brown will miss Saturday’s game with a concussion. Chicago’s leading receiver Darnell Mooney was placed on injured reserve a few weeks ago and he’s expected to miss the rest of the regular season. Bears tight end Cole Kmet leads the team in touchdown catches with 5 and he could see an increased target share due to the absence of Brown and Claypool on Saturday.
Bills vs. Bears Betting Trends
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an outright win.
Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 16.
Chicago is 2-1-1 ATS this season in games against the AFC.
Bills vs. Bears Prediction:
Since Week 3, the Buffalo Bills have gone 9-3. Of those 9 wins, only 3 of them were by more than 8 points. The Bills have been overvalued a bit all season after beginning the year with back-to-back blowout wins over the Rams and Titans. Now Buffalo is in a dogfight for the #1 overall seed in the AFC with the Chiefs and Bengals. Coincidentally, the Bills play at Cincinnati next week on Monday night January 2nd in a game that could very well determine who gets the first-round bye in the AFC playoffs. I do think there’s some look-ahead potential there and Buffalo could easily get caught off-guard by an injured but scrappy Chicago Bears team. This line opened at 7, got as high as 9.5, and has come down to 8.5. The Bears are 3-2 ATS as a home underdog this season and I think they keep it close and improve that mark to 4-2. I’ll take the Bears at home and the points.
NFL WEEK 16 PREDICTION: CHICAGO BEARS +8.5
