The Saints will host the Broncos to kick off Week 7 in the NFL on Thursday night. If you’re looking for different angles to attack the single game slate in DFS for tonight, we’ve got some recommendations.
MVP/Captain Suggestion: Javonte Williams, RB, Broncos
Projected to be lower-owned in both FanDuel and Draftkings, Williams comes with both risk and reward. Let’s start with the risk.
Last week, Williams led the Denver backfield in snaps with 36. That said, he gained only 36 yards on nine touches as the Broncos fell to the Chargers. Williams only has one week as an RB2 or better in fantasy, so he hasn’t been killing it for owners or DFS players.
That said, because the Broncos fell behind in the first half, Williams was dealing with a negative game script. I don’t see the same scenario playing out tonight. The Broncos are slight favorites tonight in New Orleans, where they’ll play a rookie quarterback making only his second start. Spencer Rattler had some moments in his NFL starting debut last Sunday against the Bucs, but he struggled mightily in the second half. I expect the Broncos to be in a neutral or positive game script tonight, which would put Williams in the driver seat for full-game opportunities.
The other reason to like Williams tonight is that the Saints are worn down. They played 80 snaps defensively on Monday night in Kansas City, then turned around and played 72 snaps this past Sunday against the Bucs. If you watched how poor New Orleans’ tackling was in the second half versus Tampa Bay, you’ll understand why I’m recommending Williams tonight. The deeper this game goes, the more I expect the Saints defense to struggle.
FLEX Options:
Bo Nix, QB, Broncos
I prefer Nix over Rattler tonight. Rattler is a total wild card. He has some mobility but he’ll be without Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee) and Taysom Hill. Who does that leave for Rattler? Juwan Johnson, Foster Moreau and someone named Bub Means? (Kidding, I know that Means was involved last week.)
I don’t anticipate Nix having a big game. That said, he has averaged 6.0 rushing points per game, which is fifth among quarterbacks this season. As previously mentioned, the Saints are worn down defensively. I could see Nix running one in at some point.
Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
This one is a layup, even if Kamara is dealing with back, rib and hand injuries. The Saints won’t be able to throw the ball much against this Denver secondary, so they’ll be forced to rely on Kamara to handle the workload.
Broncos Defense
I don’t love using defenses in DFS because they don’t offer a high ceiling. That said, the Broncos have been outstanding defensively and are facing a rookie quarterback playing behind a banged-up offensively line without most of his weapons. Good luck, Spencer.
Devaughn Vele, WR, Broncos
Most will look to Courtland Sutton if they’re looking for someone to pair with Nix from a passing standpoint. That said, Vele has been a top 36 scorer in full-PPR formats in his two games this season. He caught eight passes for 39 yards and four passes for 78 yards in those two games. He’s also played a team-high 79.4% of his snaps in the slot, where the Saints have allowed 6.2 catches per game to wide receivers, which ranks 28th.
Juwan Johnson/Foster Moreau
Both of these tight ends are dart throws, so pick your favorite if you’re looking to fill out your lineup. Tight ends have 25.1% of the targets against Denver this season, which is the fifth-highest rate in football. Thus, the Broncos are forcing opponents to either run or throw to their tight ends, because the receivers are on lock down. If the Saints are in catchup mode late, one of these guys could score a touchdown and put your lineup over the top.