NFC South rivals clash in Atlanta on Thursday Night Football, where the Falcons will host the Bucs from Mercedes Benz Stadium. With the number sitting at 43.5, is the over the safe bet tonight? Check out our Bucs vs. Falcons Over/Under Prediction.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Tampa Bay Bucs (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5); o/u 43.5
Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 3, 2024
TV: Prime Video
Bucs vs. Falcons Public Betting: Bettors Leaning Towards Tampa Bay
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 53% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Evans Removed from Injury Report
Mike Evans (knee/calf) has been removed from the Buccaneers’ injury report and will play in Week 5 against the Falcons. Evans was listed as limited in Tuesday and Wednesday’s practices but doesn’t carry an injury status ahead of Thursday night’s game against the Falcons. Evans is coming off his best outing of the season, in which he caught 8-of-14 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown. He should be treated as a WR2 in tomorrow’s matchup.
Robinson removed from injury report
Bijan Robinson (hamstring) was removed from the injury report and will play in Week 5 against the Bucs. Robinson never appeared to be at risk of missing the Falcons’ TNF matchup with Tampa Bay and that is indeed the case. Robinson only saw six carries to Tyler Allgeier’s seven last week and the ankle issue could be a reason for head coach Raheem Morris to keep Robinson’s workload in check. Still, fantasy managers shouldn’t hit the panic button yet and can keep Robinson locked in as an RB1 for at least one more week.
Bucs vs. Falcons Betting Trends
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay’s last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta’s last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta’s last 12 games when playing Tampa Bay
Bucs vs. Falcons Prediction:
Take the over. The Falcons have scored a touchdown on only 13.2% of their possessions, which ranks 28th in the league. That’s the only stat that gives me pause when it comes to taking the over. Otherwise, the over looks like a safe bet tonight.
A whopping 50% of opponents’ drives against Atlanta scored points, which ranks 28th in the league. Meanwhile, 42.5% of opponents’ drives against Tampa Bay have reached the red zone, which ranks 28th in the league. Thus, teams are scoring on the Falcons and at least driving on the Bucs. Either way, an opportunity to score is there on both sides tonight.
Another factor: The Bucs could have trouble running the ball. The Falcons are allowing 4.0 yards per carry to running backs thus far, which ranks ninth in the NFL. Tampa Bay’s success tonight on offense is through the air. That’s a good thing for over bettors.
Bucs vs. Falcons NFL Prediction: OVER 43.5
Looking for a prediction on the spread for tonight’s game? Check out my colleague Duke James’ selection on the spread/moneyline.
