NFC South rivals clash in Atlanta on Thursday Night Football when the Falcons host the Bucs at 8:15 p.m. ET. Looking for a good angle in the prop market? Check out this Baker Mayfield passing prop.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
Tampa Bay Bucs (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5); o/u 43.5
Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 3, 2024
TV: Prime Video
Bucs vs. Falcons Public Betting: Bettors Leaning Towards Tampa Bay
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 53% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Bucs vs. Falcons Player Prop Prediction
Mayfield is coming off season highs in completions (30), attempts (47) and passing yards (347) against the Eagles. He also tossed a pair of touchdowns through the air and rushed for his second score of the season.
From a clean pocket, Mayfield is fourth in the NFL with a 111.9 rating. He’s completing 74.0% of his passes fro 8/1 yards per attempt (which ranks 10th) and is tied for the league lead with seven touchdowns. That’s key tonight, considering he won’t face much pressure from the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 24th in the NFL in pressure rate (29.9%) and dead last in sack rate at 3.0%.
Under head coach Raheem Morris, the Falcons are playing a ton of zone coverage. They operate in the mode of “bend but don’t break,” so Mayfield will have plenty of opportunities to pick up yards tonight.
One final thing to note: Atlanta has played the run well. The Falcons have allowed 4.0 yards per carry to running backs, which ranks ninth in the NFL. Thus, if the Bucs want to move the ball tonight in Atlanta, it’ll be through the air.
That’s why I love Mayfield to go over 244.5 passing yards tonight.
Bucs vs. Falcons Player Prop Prediction: Baker Mayfield over 244.5 Passing Yards
