The Chiefs are only laying 3.5 points to the 1-3 Vikings at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. Is this a trap game for Kansas City backers? Check out our Chiefs vs. Vikings NFL Week 5 prediction!
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
471 Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at 472 Minnesota Vikings (+3.5); o/u 52.5
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 8, 2023
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
TV: CBS
Chiefs vs. Vikings Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 59% of public bettors are currently backing the Chiefs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Kansas City Chiefs DFS Spin
Travis Kelce caught 6-of-9 targets for 60 yards in the Chiefs’ Week 4 win over the Jets. The yardage total wasn’t what we’ve grown accustomed to with Kelce catching passes from Mahomes, but the veteran tight end remained the focal point of the pass offense on a night where Mahomes attempted only 30 passes. Kelce could return to dominant fantasy performances as early as next week when the Chiefs travel to Minnesota to face the reeling Vikings.
Minnesota Vikings DFS Spin
Alexander Mattison played on 33-of-48 snaps in Week 4’s win over the Panthers. Week 4 marked Mattison’s first game sharing a backfield with Cam Akers, but his 69 percent snap share was only a slight drop from the 77 percent snap share he had entering the day. Mattison played well enough with his opportunities on the day, rushing 17 times for 95 yards and will likely serve as the lead back in Week 5 against the Chiefs. Akers turned in a solid 5/40 rushing line, but may need a Mattison implosion before the team considers turning to him on a more consistent basis.
Chiefs vs. Vikings Betting Trends
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The Chiefs are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Minnesota’s last 16 games at home
Minnesota is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Chiefs vs. Vikings Prediction:
Give me Kansas City. I don’t know why this spread is this low and I don’t care – give me the Chiefs. Kansas City is 29-7 as a road favorite since the start of the 2018 season. That’s the second-best win percentage (.806) in the NFL over that span (only Washington’s mark of 7-0-1 is better).
Patrick Mahomes thrives against opponents that decide the best way to contain him and Kansas City’s offense is to blitz. Since the start of the 2020 season, Mahomes has been by far the NFL’s best quarterback against the blitz, ranking first in QBR, touchdown percentage, first down rate and sack rate. The Vikings have sent extra pass rushers on 55% of opponent dropbacks this season under new DC Brian Flores, which is the third-highest rate through a team’s first four games since ESPN began tracking blitzes in 2006. Perhaps Flores will adjust his game plan. Even if he doesn’t, I still envision Mahomes having a big game on Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Vikings NFL Prediction: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.5