The final Turkey Day NFL game will pit the Dolphins against the Packers in perhaps the most intriguing of three Thanksgiving matchups. That said, will Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins struggle in the cold temps? Read on for our Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay prediction.
Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay: Tua Tagovailoa under 240.5 Passing Yards
Tua leads the NFL with a 73.3% completion rate but that doesn’t mean the Dolphins are throwing it all over the yard. Tagovailoa has thrown a league-high 32.8% of his passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. For reference, the league average is 22.6%. Tua’s previous career high was 27.3%. Mike McDaniels has put the governor on his own offense.
The weather tonight in Green Bay is supposed to be below freezing. Apparently, it’ll “only” feel like 20 degrees, but that’s still damn cold. Granted, it won’t be as cold as the dangerous temps were last January when the Dolphins traveled to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs Wild Card Weekend. Nevertheless, it’ll be cold.
Tagovailoa has struggled in cold weather games. In the aforementioned matchup with the Chiefs last January, he threw for 199 yards. In 2022, he threw for 234 yards in Buffalo. He might be playing well entering play tonight, but I don’t expect this Miami offense to fire on all cylinders in Green Bay.
Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay: Green Bay Packers -3.5
I know the Dolphins have played well in recent weeks, but I think that comes to a halt tonight in Green Bay. I don’t like backing finesse teams later in the year when they travel to cold-weather venues. And like I mentioned above, the temps tonight in Green Bay will be freezing.
With Tua back, the Dolphins have been a significantly better team – one capable of making the playoffs if they can continue to win. That said, the Packers have led by double-digits for 29.9% of their offensive snaps, which is third in the league. Their defense is young and has warts, but they can also force turnovers on the back end and they love playing at home. They’re a confident bunch as well, having held the banged-up 49ers to just 10 points last week at Lambeau Field.
Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay: De’Von Achane over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Even though I don’t believe Tua will have a big night throwing the ball, this prop is too good to pass up. Granted, Achane is always a risk to hurt himself during a game and submarine the over on any of his props. That said, I’ll roll the dice.
Achane only racked up 24 receiving yards versus New England last week, but the Dolphins were up big and didn’t need to throw much in the second half. He’s finished with at least 30 receiving yards in three of his last five games overall.
Dolphins vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Odds: +508 (Fanduel Sportsbook)
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