The Miami Dolphins head to Foxborough to face the New England Patriots on Sunday when Week 5’s afternoon slate begins at 1:00 PM ET on FOX. Can the Patriots cover the 1-point spread as home underdogs? Keep reading for our Dolphins vs. Patriots betting prediction.
The Miami Dolphins are 1-3 straight up and 0-4 against the spread this year. Their only win came against Jacksonville and their worst loss came against Tennessee.
The New England Patriots are 1-3 straight up and 1-2-1 against the spread this season. Their only win came against Cincinnati and their worst loss came against Seattle.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Matchup & Betting Odds
461 Miami Dolphins (-1) at 462 New England Patriots (+1); o/u 35.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2024
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TV: FOX
Dolphins vs. Patriots Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 57% of public bettors are currently backing the Patriots when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Miami Dolphins Daily Fantasy Spin
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (concussion), safety Jordan Poyer (shin), linebacker Jaelan Phillips (knee), and linebacker Bradley Chubb (knee) will all miss Sunday’s road date with the Patriots. All four players are starters at their respective positions.
Miami backup quarterback Skylar Thompson (ribs) is officially listed as questionable to play on Sunday. Thompson missed the club’s Monday night game against Tennessee last week with that same ailment. If Thompson can’t go on Sunday, the Dolphins will likely start veteran Tyler Huntley at quarterback again. In Miami’s 31-12 loss to Tennessee on Monday, Huntley threw for 96 yards, lost a fumble, was sacked twice, and posted a QBR of 12.3
New England Patriots Daily Fantasy Spin
Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (shoulder), offensive tackle Caedan Wallace (ankle), center David Andrews (shoulder), and guard Cole Strange (knee) will all miss Sunday’s game against the Dolphins.
New England wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (knee) is officially listed as questionable but is expected to play on Sunday. Bourne had 406 receiving yards in 8 games of action for the Pats last year.
Patriots safety Marte Mapu (calf), linebacker Anfernee Jennings (shoulder), safety Kyle Dugger (ankle), wide receiver K.J. Osborn (shoulder), cornerback Marcus Jones (groin), cornerback Jonathan Jones (shoulder), guard Layden Robinson (ankle), guard Nick Leverett (ankle), offensive tackle Vederian Lowe (knee), and guard Michael Jordan (ankle) are all officially listed as questionable to play on Sunday.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Trends
Miami is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Miami is 3-5 ATS after a loss since the start of last season.
New England is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
New England is 38-31-3 ATS as the home team since the start of the 2016 season.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Prediction:
Miami starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is on injured reserve due to a concussion he suffered in Week 2. Dolphins backup quarterback Skylar Thompson missed last week’s game with a rib injury and is officially listed as questionable to play on Sunday. Miami did sign veteran backup QB Tim Boyle to the practice squad and elevated him to the active roster. Because of that, it seems like Thompson is in danger of not playing.
If that’s the case, Miami will send out Tyler Huntley, who averaged 4.4 yards per pass attempt in the Dolphins’ 31-12 loss to the Titans on Monday. Huntley has a record of 3-7 straight up as a starter, a passer rating of 78.7, and a touchdown-pass-to-interception ratio of 8-7 in his career. I know New England isn’t as good as they once were, but I think they can beat a team led by Tyler Huntley at home. I’m taking the Pats in this one.