Even if you believe Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco is destined for big things on Sunday, stay away from playing the over on this Super Bowl LVIIII betting prop when Kansas City takes on the San Francisco 49ers at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
101 San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. 102 Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5); o/u 47.5
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 11, 2024
Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
TV: CBS
49ers vs. Chiefs: Public Bettors Still Hammering KC
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 71% of public bettors are currently backing the Chiefs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Isiah Pacheco Still Dealing with Injuries
Pacheco (toe/ankle) was listed as a non-participant on the Chiefs’ estimated practice report on Wednesday. The Chiefs didn’t hold a full practice, but they did release an estimated practice report. Pacheco, DT Chris Jones (quad), OG Joe Thuney (pectoral), and DE Charles Omenihu (knee) were also estimated as non-participants.
Omenihu will miss the Super Bowl with a torn ACL and Thuney did not play against the Ravens. That said, Jones is a new addition, which means he must have picked up the quad injury during the AFC title game. Pacheco, Thuney, and Jones all have more than enough time to get back on the field. We’ll keep an eye on their practice reports early next week.
Workhorse Effort for Pacheco vs. Ravens
Pacheco rushed 24 times for 68 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ AFC Championship Game victory over the Ravens. He added four receptions for 14 yards. Twenty-eight touches for 82 yards, efficiency this is not. Pacheco nevertheless moved the chains at several critical points in what turned into a defensive slugfest, and his two-yard touchdown early in the second quarter surprisingly ended up providing the difference.
With the Chiefs having narrowed their skill corps for the season’s biggest games, Pacheco will remain a Super Bowl workhorse.
The Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl Over Not to Bet
The over/under for Pacheco’s receiving yards prop in Super Bowl LVIII is 16.5. He has delivered 17-plus receiving yards only once in his last five games, averaging only 12.2 receiving yards per game over that span. He’s also turned in 17 or more receiving yards only once in his last five playoff games (15.6 average).
In five of his last six games when facing an opponent with a winning record, Pacheco was held to under 17 receiving yards, averaging just 8.3 yards per game over that span. He was held to under 17 receiving yards in six straight games following a win (4.2 average) and in five straight games after the Chiefs covered in their previous contest (5.0 average).
Super Bowl LVIIII Prop Prediction: Isiah Pacheco UNDER 16.5 Receiving Yards
