NFC South rivals clash in Tampa, FL on Sunday where the Bucs will host the Falcons at 1:00 p.m. ET. With Tampa Bay listed as 2.5-point home favorites and the total sitting at 37.5 points, what’s the best bet in today’s Falcons vs. Bucs Week 7 matchup?
Game Matchup & Betting Odds
451 Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at 452 Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5); o/u 37.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 22, 2023
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
TV: FOX
Falcons vs. Bucs Public Betting Information
Our NFL Public Betting Information page indicates that 74% of public bettors are currently backing the Bucs when it comes to the spread. This information is subject to change throughout the day, however, so be sure to check the link so you’re receiving the most up-to-date public betting data.
Atlanta Falcons DFS Spin
Bijan Robinson ran a season-high 45 routes in the Falcons’ Week 6 loss to the Commanders. The 45 routes run by Robinson are the second most by any running back through the first five weeks of the season, with Kyren Williams’ 48 routes in Week 2 topping the list. For a back who is splitting touches with Tyler Allgeier, this high-volume of routes will give Robinson and his fantasy managers somewhat of an out when things aren’t happening for him on the ground. Robinson had never run more than 33 routes in any of his first five games, although we can’t overlook this performance coming in a game where the Falcons trailed by double-digits for much of the second half.
Tampa Bay Bucs DFS Spin
Mike Evans caught 4-of-10 targets for 49 yards in the Bucs’ Week 6 loss to the Lions. Mike Evans was questionable to play with a hamstring injury, but he not only saw his regular usage but led the team in targets. The issue for Evans is that Chris Godwin is frequently used over the middle of the field with Evans being used on deeper routes. In games like today when Baker Mayfield has no time to throw, Evans’ output is going to be inconsistent. As a result, he’s more of a matchup-dependent WR2 in fantasy.
Falcons vs. Bucs Betting Trends
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games on the road
The over/under has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay’s last 6 games
Falcons vs. Bucs Prediction:
Take Tampa Bay. The Bucs have won five out of the previous meetings between these two teams and they’ll win today, too. It’ll be tight because Atlanta has a decent defense for the first time in three decades, but the Bucs are the better team and they’ll show it today.
One of the Falcons’ biggest issues is that their offense lacks creativity. Desmond Ridder limits what the team can do in the passing game, but Arthur Smith has been just as big of a problem for the team. On multiple occasions in Atlanta’s loss to Washington last Sunday, Smith failed to get the play into Ridder before the team had to either take a timeout or a delay of game penalty. Every pass is contested. The play designs lack imagination and defenses aren’t fooled by the 682 designed rollouts that Smith uses to get Ridder on the move. It’s pathetic. Todd Bowles’ defense will eat this offense alive on Sunday.
Falcons vs. Bucs NFL Prediction: TAMPA BAY BUCS -2.5