Will Jayden Daniels run wild on Sunday Night Football tonight? Will Bijan Robinson top his rushing yards total for a fifth consecutive game? Read on for our Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay prediction.
Saturday NFL Same Game Parlay Recaps
My Saturday NFL Same Game Parlays stunk. For the Chargers-Patriots matchup, I had rookie Drake Maye going over 217.5 passing yards, Ladd McConkey going over 5.5 receptions and Justin Herbert going over 15.5 rushing yards. Maye only threw the ball 22 times and Herbert finished with 12 rushing yards. McConkey did catch eight passes, but it was all for naught.
My Broncos-Bengals SGP also went bust because Courtland Sutton finished with 55 receiving yards, which fell under his 68.5-yard total. It’s a shame too, because 14 more receiving yards from Sutton and the SGP would have cashed. With his third touchdown pass in overtime, Joe Burrow went over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+162) and Ja’Marr Chase had nine receptions, which cashed the over on his reception prop of 7.5.
Finally, my Cardinals-Rams SGP went bust when James Conner left the game early in the first half after re-aggravating the knee injury that he suffered last week. I had Conner going over 20.5 receiving yards (nope), Kyren Williams going over 90.5 rushing yards (nope) and Trey McBride over 64.5 receiving yards (yes).
I’ll try to do better for readers tonight when the Commanders hot the Falcons in a crucial Sunday Night Football matchup for both teams.
Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay: Bijan Robinson over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Over his last 10 games, Robinson has averaged 91.1 rushing yards per contest. In his last four games, the former first-round pick has rushed for 94 (vs. Giants), 125 (at Raiders), 92 (at Minnesota) and 102 yards (vs. Chargers). With a rookie under center in Michael Penix Jr., one would think the Falcons will continue to lean on Robinson and their ground game. That’s not to suggest Penix can’t move the ball through the air. In fact, with Penix under center instead of the immobile and ineffective Kirk Cousins, I like Robinson and the Atlanta ground game even more. My main point is that the offense will continue to run through Robinson.
This is also a good matchup. The Commanders have allowed 4.9 yards per carry to running backs this season, which ranks 28th in the NFL. No team has allowed a higher rate of explosive runs, as Washington has surrendered a run of 10 or more yards on 13.4% of running back runs. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Washington has also allowed the most yards before contact per rush to running backs at 2.53. In a nutshell, that means that Robinson will pick up 2.5 yards before he’s even touched tonight.
Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay: Terry McLaurin Anytime Touchdown (+110)
McLaurin caught five-of-six targets for 60 yards last Sunday against the Eagles. Did I mention he found the end zone? Because he found the end zone. The 32-yard touchdown grab was McLaurin’s 12 of the season, which trails only Ja’Marr Chase for most touchdown receptions in the NFL. McLaurin has a league-high 10 touchdown receptions on throws into the end zone, which accounts for 46.7% of the Commander’s end zone targets (second in the league).
The Falcons have rushed the passer better of late, but they’re still struggling to contain opponents’ top receiver. In a game that could eventually turn into a shootout, I envision McLaurin securing a key touchdown for the Commanders at some point.
Falcons vs. Commanders Same Game Parlay: Jayden Daniels over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
The key to this prop is that Daniels looks relatively healthy again. When he injured his ribs back in October, his rushing numbers dipped as well. You can see this in his game log, as he fell under his rushing total in three consecutive games – at the Giants, versus the Steelers and at the Eagles – before he pasted Dallas with 74 rushing yards on November 24.
Since that game against the Cowboys, Daniels has gone over his rushing yards total in three out of his last four games. That includes running for 81 yards last Sunday versus a Philadelphia defense that is more equipped to slow down the rookie than Atlanta is tonight.
3-Leg Same Game Parlay Odds: +652 (Fanduel Sportsbook)