The 2024-25 NFL season kicks off Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium. Here are my Five Best Ravens vs. Chiefs Player Prop Predictions ahead of tonight’s 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff.
Ravens vs. Chiefs Event Information
What: Ravens vs. Chiefs
When: Thursday, September 5, 2024
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
Watch: NBC
Derrick Henry over 65.5 Rushing Yards
Let’s start off with a player prop that you could include in a same game parlay if you decided to go that route. Henry’s rushing total sits at 65.5 but my projections have him rushing for 75 yards. At +9.5, that’s more than enough value for this prop to become active for me.
When these two teams met in the AFC Championship Game last season, Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken was criticized for not leaning more on the running game. Lamar Jackson was the team’s leading rushing with 54 yards on eight carries, while Gus Edwards finished with just 20 yards on three carries. Receiver Zay Flowers also had two carries for four yards and Justice Hill finished with three yards on three carries.
Fast forward to this offseason. The Ravens signed Henry in free agency to ensure Lamar had more help from the team’s ground game. Assuming the Ravens don’t fall too far behind early, Henry should see 17-20 carries and I like him to get over his rushing yards prop.
Travis Kelce over 58.5 Receiving Yards
My projections have Kelce with just over 70 yards receiving, making his yardage prop number too low. The tight end went off in last year’s AFC title game, finishing with 11 receptions for 116 yards. That performance was surprising considering safety Kyle Hamilton was blanketing Kelce in coverage. For that reason, I don’t envision Kelce nearly the century mark again against the Ravens, as Mahomes has more weapons than he did back in January. Nevertheless, Kelce’s yardage prop number is still too low ahead of tonight’s conference clash.
Xavier Worthy over 44.5 Receiving Yards
This prop would seem to work against the Kelce yardage, but I trust my projections. I have Worthy’s yardage projection at 53.9. Typically, I would tread carefully with rookies because their performance is difficult to project, especially early in the season. We don’t know what roles they’ll have in an offense and nowadays, most starters don’t play in preseason. That said, we know the Chiefs wanted to add more speed to their offense. They needed a receiver with home run ability and Worthy fits the bill. He runs a 4.21 forty so rookie or not, his speed will be a huge factor that defenses will need to contend with each week. He could catch one pass for 50 yards and we cash this prop in one fell swoop.
Rashee Rice under 5.5 Receptions
Again, I’m trusting my projections, which have Rice at 4.8 receptions for tonight. With the number at 5.5, is that a huge value? When it comes to receptions, yes, especially with the under juiced to +106. As previously mentioned, Mahomes has more weapons at his disposal. Kelce will see 8-10 targets tonight and Worthy will eat into some of Rice’s looks as well. Throw in Isiah Pacheco’s touches and I see Rice falling short in the receptions category.
Lamar Jackson over 217.5 Passing Yards
When these two teams met in the AFC title game, Jackson threw for 272 yards in the Ravens’ 17-10 loss. Even with an added emphasis on the running game, Jackson should still clear his 217.5-yard number. If the Chiefs drag the Ravens into a shootout tonight, then Lamar should sail over this number.
